CECAA850 Posted September 4, 2008 Share Posted September 4, 2008 Marshall, it looks like Ike has Lake "O" in his sights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chili bone Posted September 4, 2008 Share Posted September 4, 2008 I believe you're right about the topo issues we have. It looks like someone turned on the "We are open" sign on that bullseye I mentioned. Although Hanna doesn't look like she's going to be too bad or hang around very long like some others have. Carl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chili bone Posted September 4, 2008 Share Posted September 4, 2008 I believe you're right about the topo issues we have. It looks like someone has turn on the "We're Open" sign on that bullseys I mentioned before. Although, Hanna doesn't look too bad and she's not going to hang around long like some others have. Carl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted September 6, 2008 Share Posted September 6, 2008 Here is the latest path for Ike. It keeps taking a lower path and looks like it will miss most of Florida except the Key West, 50-60 miles from the eye. The bad news is where will it hit in the gulf? Biloxi, Mobile, Pensacola are all possibilities, even New Orleans has a chance? The forecast in the next couple of days should help narrow it down. The people returning from Gustov, might not want to get too comfortable. Some of them may/will be leaving by mid week. Fortunately, Josephine looks like it is going to stay in the Atlantic and not cause any problems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted September 6, 2008 Share Posted September 6, 2008 Military track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted September 6, 2008 Share Posted September 6, 2008 Computer models: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel Posted September 6, 2008 Moderators Share Posted September 6, 2008 Sorry to be out for a week, we were lucky ! I always thought living on the Gulf Coast was not the best place during Hurricane season BUT one thing for sure Marshall likes to live dangerously. [:|] The Gulf Coast is one thing, but South Florida is like the area where everything either just misses or plows right over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daddy Dee Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 dtel, Glad to hear from you. You guys came out OK? Ike looks like it will hit the gulf coast on Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel Posted September 7, 2008 Moderators Share Posted September 7, 2008 Did great Dee, a couple of big container trees fell over and broke there sprinkler water line, but I had them turned off to be safe, thats about it. A week in the Mountains is not exactly roughing it for an evacuation. [Y] Probably this week for Ike we will head to Arkansas, always a nice place to evacuate, we hope to live somewhere close or "on" a Mountain one day, although I think "on" cost more than we could afford after looking at some of the prices this week. When they say million dollar view, they are not kidding ! [:|] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daddy Dee Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 dtel, You know, I think you've got it right on evac. If you have to go, might as well take the opportunity for some good family time. Yeh. a nice view of the mountains is fine. There is something about that which is peaceful. Hope Ike tracks somewhere so you can stay put this time. However, if you do come to Arkansas, be sure to let me know. The state lodge at Mt. Magazine is lovely or at Petit Jean state park, also lovely. Mt. Mag is the highest elevation between the Appalachians and the Rockies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 7, 2008 Author Share Posted September 7, 2008 Dflip: Thanks for hanging the postings for everyone, I was out of pocket yesterday, had to go visit Rlauer and pick up the really nice, virtually mint H-II's. By the time I got back, I decided to forego any forum activity and work on new storm shutter wood for the man cave. Dtel's (Eldon & Christy & the gang) Great news!! Just couple of trees? minor stuff!! Hopefully, Ike will head to a relatively lightly populated area and weaken down as it get's there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 Ike's projection in the Gulf of Mexico has changed. It is a major hurricane at the moment and will hit Cuba north of Guantonamo as a cat 4. The mountains in Cuba will take a lot out of Ike and will be a smaller cat 1 when it finally leaves Cuba, since it wants to go from the east coast to the west. It will regain strength when it enters the gulf. Each day the forecast has it going further west. If this continues, Galveston could be the eastern range of the landfall with Corpus Cristi on the west edge. Of course this all depends on what the other air masses are doing and whether they shift Ike a bit left or right. Gelveston would be a straight line on the current path. Good news for those who endured Gustov. Since it is heading more westward in the gulf it does give Ike an opportunity to increase in strength which isn't good news for the Texas coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 Military track: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 7, 2008 Author Share Posted September 7, 2008 ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008 1. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE...LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 Computer models: I used a different site this time because the other version doesn't do a good job of showing Texas at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 7, 2008 Author Share Posted September 7, 2008 Meawhile Ike's tracks are no very closely clustered and all are very close agreement in that Cuba is going to get wacked pretty badly. I feel for those folks. Here's the NHC discussion regarding Ike: WTNT44 KNHC 070856 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008 THE EYE OF IKE PASSED DIRECTLY OVER THE TURKS ISLANDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SITE IN THE TURKS ISLANDS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 99 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 975.3 MB AT 0300 UTC. NO ADDITIONAL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM THAT STATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 948 MB AND A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL OF121 KT. THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 115 KT. IKE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/13. IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN HAS BEGUN. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED... AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...BEFORE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS A LITTLE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED ITS SOUTHWARD SHIFTS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE ADDITIONAL DATA PROVIDED BY THE G-IV DROPSONDE MISSION LAST EVENING. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALONG THE LEFT OR SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE... WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON THE RIGHT SIDE. THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE 36 HOURS...AND THEREAFTER IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER OF IKE NEAR THE ISLAND OF CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY IS DEPENDANT ON HOW LONG IKE INTERACTS WITH LAND. WITH THE NEW TRACK FORECAST UP THE MIDDLE OF THE ISLAND... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADIVSORY. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF...CONIDITIONS APPREAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING... SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY INTENSIFICATION AT DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 21.1N 72.2W 115 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 21.0N 74.2W 120 KT24HR VT 08/0600Z 21.2N 76.6W 125 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.8N 79.0W 85 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 09/0600Z 22.5N 81.1W 65 KT...INLAND72HR VT 10/0600Z 24.5N 84.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 11/0600Z 26.0N 87.0W 95 KT120HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 89.5W 100 KT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 7, 2008 Author Share Posted September 7, 2008 Here's Ike's NHC track: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 7, 2008 Author Share Posted September 7, 2008 Here's Ike's spaghetti tracks: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 7, 2008 Author Share Posted September 7, 2008 Here's the MILTRACK NOTE THE WINDFIELD ESTIMATES!! It's a big storm... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 7, 2008 Author Share Posted September 7, 2008 Here's Ike's visible image Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.