Hurricane Season - 2008

[Mallette]

Yessir. 100mph wind for 30 minutes may be OK, but 100mph wind for 2 hours really messes things up. Then it turns 180 degrees and goes after the other side.

I estimate winds at my house were averaging 90mph for about 4 hours or more, with gusts much higher. And this was going on for probably a 200 mile radius, as big as some entire storms. The eye was at least 40 miles in diameter...I've never seen larger.

If this thing had made Cat 4 I might not be writing this for a while...if ever.

The scale of devastation is growing on me yet. Galveston is still totally closed and will remain so for a long time. Many great old structures that survived storms higher on the SS scale are completely gone. Balinese Ball Room is one. I saw it after Carla and only the covered pier out to the main structure was damaged by that great storm. Now only some piers remain. Most may not know that visitors would always comment about the lack of windows on the Balineses. It was a speak easy during prohibition, and a gambling spot up until the '50's. The long tunnel make it easy to hide and ditch any illegal activities while the cops tried to run down the tunnel as fast as possible. By the time they got there they only saw a bunch of folks sipping tea.

Another victim was the Storm of 1900 memorial. I am not too sad about that. While the memorial was a very appropriate and striking design, it was way too small and way too flimsy (obviously). You would really notice it from across the street. Hope they do better on a replacement.

Murdochs! Murdochs survived the 1915 storm, and some part or the other all since. They'd just restored it to about half it's former size a few years ago. It's gone, all but the piers. Very sad. Some of my sister's baby pictures were made with Murdoch's in the background.

Also a lot of damage in the Strand, which is sort of Galveston's "French Quarter." Most of the fine brick structures there were built by the early robber barons of Texas and all survived the 1900 storm. There was 7 feet of water in there. Lot of work restoring that stuff. I thought of the marvelous old band organ that is in one of the bars. I SO hope it was not destroyed. The Tremont hotel is (was) lavishly restored and took a lot of water.

BOI's (Born on the Island) are tough as old boots and they'll just clean up and go on. But some things are likely gone for good.

Dave

[CECAA850]

Day 5 with no electricity. I've seen trucks in the area but no juice yet. I've spent the last 2 days chain sawing trees out of my neighbors yard. I've got sore muscles that I've forgotten I had. Anyone need any firewood?????? Cheap...... The weather has been co-operating however. I remember after Rita, it seemed like all the Days were around 100 degrees. We've had 80's in the daytime and 60's at night. Absolutely beautiful weather for working in your (or your neighbors) yard. Some grocery stores and gas stations have started opening up under generator power. The lines are a little long but nothing unbearable. No post office or city functions yet. We're on the road to recovery but it's still a little bumpy.

Carl

[wsquare]

Glad you made it through okay. Can't say that I have ever been through a hurricane. I remember when Camille and Betsy went through north Louisiana in the 60s. We really got a lot of rain and wind from Camille.

I have not heard of much organized volunteer work yet, but I am sure when things settle out, there will be some. I spent some time in Bay St. Louis, MS in Dec 2005 after Katrina. So, as a native Texan who grew up in Louisiana, I'll probably look for the right group to go down there when the time is right.

WW

[Mallette]

Sounds rough over there in Beaumont.

I made a recce out a while ago. It's nasty. No traffic control other than they've put out stop signs, and the DPS is directing traffic at 146 and NASA 1. The only thing I saw open was the Kroger. Went in and they were running two registers and minimal lights on generators. No ice or anything requiring refrigeration.

Wife and kids are returning tomorrow and bringing supplies like milk, beer, bread etc. Our school says they are opening Monday. I think that is very irresponsible with the infrastructure so far from recovery, but I know school types...they just GOTTA get going again.

I went as far as NASA one and turned onto it so I could get a sense of the surge. It was well up Lakeside about a third of the way to my house. Lots of furniture, carpets, etc. stacked outside looking nasty. As we say here, Clear Lake is neither clear nor a lake. It is nasty backwater from Galveston Bay and not something you want in your house.

Dave

[Groomlakearea51]

NHC is watching "disturbed area" over the Windwards/ Leewards. It is, howevever, not expected to develop soon. It's also further to the south due to the steering currents.

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS COULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY.

[Groomlakearea51]

There are no track models available at this time. Streamlines for 96 hours still send it pretty much due west and if development occurs, it would go into the Carribean/ Lower Gulf, Bay of Campeche area.

[CECAA850]

NHC is watching "disturbed area" over the Windwards/ Leewards.

If they really want to see a disturbed area, they can come to my house.[]

[WS65711]

........ The only thing I saw open was the Kroger. Went in and they were running two registers and minimal lights on generators.................

I'm curious if they were accepting checks or debit/credit cards? After Katrina it seemed like it was a month or so that all sales were cash-money-only. The vendors that did manage to open up for business were hampered by the lack of communication lines, and couldn't process credit card sales, etc.

............... Lots of furniture, carpets, etc. stacked outside looking nasty. As we say here, Clear Lake is neither clear nor a lake. It is nasty backwater from Galveston Bay and not something you want in your house.

A year or two before Katrina, a friend who had moved to Eden Isles (Slidell) from Canada in the 1970's, commented to me that someone had told her to always move her houseplants outside before evacuating for a hurricane. She said that way, in the event of a flood, the plants wouldn't turn over and worsen the mess. I chuckled and told her that the houseplants wouldn't make a difference. Her house took about 6 feet of water in Katrina, leaving behind several inches of muck inside. She's now back in Canada..........................

[RIGGED25]

Dave,

I lost power at 8:30pm(shortly after that post) and have been sans since. Yea, I bought a case and toasted the Ikester all night long-a long night it was eh?

I finally broke down and purchased a generator from Sam's off of 45 and El Dorado.

I didn't see your post regarding the Frazier/Klipschorn but I'll look for it.

RIGGED

[Mallette]

>I'm curious if they were accepting checks or debit/credit cards?

Debit card worked, to my surprise. I haven't written a check in years.

Dave

[Groomlakearea51]

Upper level winds are tearing up the stuff over the Windwards & Leewards (Thank God!!!)

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES... THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

[Groomlakearea51]

Steering currents still looking good for the next 96 hours. While the NHC does not seem to worry about that disturbed area off the lower African coast, it can be seen on the graphic at Day-4:

[Groomlakearea51]

Well... the storm system over Puerto Rico (the one the NHC was watching.... and thought was no problem...) has decided to get organized.

It's tracks indicate north or northwest... so as likely as not it will be a threat (in the long run...) to Florida, and the east coast. Here's the NHC estimate.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NEAR WESTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT... AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM PUERTO RICO INDICATE THAT 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ON PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND... AND THESE RAINS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS... THE DOMINICAN REPBULIC... HAITI... THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the track models so far. Most are fairly consistent with north or northwest, but...... you never know.

[Groomlakearea51]

The streamlines, unfortunately, can steer this system west. Here's what the NHC says about the current conditions and why interests on the east coast need to pay attention to this system:

WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 26N72W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA BOUNDED TO THE W BY THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N78W SW TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF THE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER THE SE US AND N OF 30N W OF 73W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED N OF THE REGION COVERING THE AREA N OF 28N FROM 48W-65W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 62W-65W. A RATHER BENIGN
UPPER LOW IS ALSO IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N48W AND IS EMBEDDED IN DRY STABLE AIR. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ALONG 15W EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 40W GIVING
THE E SUBTROPICAL ATLC NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. THE SURFACE OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A RIDGE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 34N52W AND A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 27N30W.

Here's the 24 hour streamlines picture:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the MILSAT IR photograph of the system. Note that it is well formed for action......

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the NHC's streamlines for today.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the 200 Mb (high upper level) streamlines estimate. This pattern is consistent at 300 Mb and 500Mb and the steering is what pushes it to the northeast rather than due west.

[Groomlakearea51]

At a higher pressure (as in lower level, closer to the surface), the 500 Mb also is pushing it north/ northwest.

[Groomlakearea51]

The SST's (sea surface temperatures) are still warm, but are "normal" rather than abnormally high for the Atlantic area north of Puerto Rico. That is good for us because as it travels, the SST's will not become a major factor in any strengthening.