CECAA850 Posted September 24, 2010 Share Posted September 24, 2010 Odd how it heads straight north after it hits land, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 25, 2010 Author Share Posted September 25, 2010 It looks like we are off the hook from Matthew.... but it could make it to the Gulf and ravage Texas.... NHC cannot tell right now what's going to happen. Lisa's dying a slow death. But it "ain't over yet".... Next one would be Nichole, and as we all know, the hurricane opera ain't over until a fat lady sings.... [] [H] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted September 28, 2010 Share Posted September 28, 2010 It looks like we are off the hook from Matthew.... but it could make it to the Gulf and ravage Texas.... NHC cannot tell right now what's going to happen. Not so fast, it looks like it may be regrouping and headed your way! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 28, 2010 Author Share Posted September 28, 2010 Well..... It's TD-16 and will likely be Nichole shortly..... WTNT41 KNHC 281458 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED A SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CUBA AND TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. BY 48 HOURS...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN 72 HOURS OR SOONER AS THE MODELS DEPICT A NEW BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CAROLINAS. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 020/9. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OCCURING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IF THIS STRUCTURE PERSISTS...THE TRACK OF THE CENTER WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT SINCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.6N 82.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.6N 81.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 23.5N 80.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 26.5N 80.0W 40 KT (AS IN ABOUT ON TOP OF ME.....) 48HR VT 30/1200Z 31.0N 78.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 28, 2010 Author Share Posted September 28, 2010 Replaying the old song, "In The Cone Of Death Again" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 28, 2010 Author Share Posted September 28, 2010 The bigger picture.... Fortunately I'm on the west side of the track about 40 miles; we estimate that we'll get about 6-8" rain and winds of about 40-50 miles per hour or about 6-8 hours. While that sounds like alot of rain, in Florida it tends to drain off rather quickly (except in the urban areas where the developers screwed up the natural draining system patterns...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 28, 2010 Author Share Posted September 28, 2010 The "spaghetti's".... Note that Lake Okeechobee is right in there!!! The place to be in a tropical storm, or hurricane is on the north-west side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 28, 2010 Author Share Posted September 28, 2010 So says the National Weather Service..... SITUATION OVERVIEW... THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE RAINFALL FLOODING AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY, HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT MOST OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE. THIS MEANS THAT ONLY A SLIGHT SHIFT EAST OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WILL RESULT IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING OFFSHORE. NEVERTHELESS, SOUTH FLORIDIANS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 28, 2010 Author Share Posted September 28, 2010 Thar she be!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 28, 2010 Author Share Posted September 28, 2010 Nice SAT picture! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 29, 2010 Author Share Posted September 29, 2010 "Nichole to Be" continues on it's inexorable plod across Cuba to arrive in my neck of the woods at.... Yes!!! Folks!!! you guessed it!!! As per usual!!! about midnight...... We always get hit at night!!! makes it more "scary"..... Significant info in "bold". ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI...ALONG WITH RADAR RADAR FROM CUBA INDICATECONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ALSO...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLYING BETWEEN FLORIDA AND CUBA HAS INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF 33 KT IN UNCONTAMINATED SFMR DATA ABOUT 80-120 NMI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE CENTER THAN SEEN NOTED IN PRIOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RECON DATA. THE LARGEST DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY VALUES DETECTED THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 40-44 KT BETWEEN 6000-12000 FT. THIS INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. THE DEPRESSION IS ON TRACK AND THE THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/12. 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BEEN STEADILY BACKING AROUND FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIG SOUTHWARD DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 85W...THE FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ACCELERATE THE DEPRESSION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY...AND INTO THE CAROLINAS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN 36 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE STRONG BACKING FLOW PATTERN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY ARGUES FOR KEEPING THE FORECAST TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN OR LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 30 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST LATER TODAY. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND BE COMPLETE BY 36-48 HR AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY 48 HOURS...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER U. S. BAROCLINIC OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 23.3N 81.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 25.2N 80.7W 35 KT24HR VT 30/0600Z 28.9N 79.7W 40 KT ...... about 45 mph with gusts to 50+ 36HR VT 30/1800Z 33.8N 78.6W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 01/0600Z 40.0N 77.3W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 29, 2010 Author Share Posted September 29, 2010 The NHC "Cone of Death", or since it's a tropical storm, the "Cone of Pain".... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 29, 2010 Author Share Posted September 29, 2010 The major wind fields are still expected to be to the east. Note the very large size and extent of the wind fields on the east side. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 25.2N 80.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 250SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.9N 79.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 33.8N 78.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 40.0N 77.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 250SE 0SW 0NW. [H] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 29, 2010 Author Share Posted September 29, 2010 The "Cone" with timelines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 29, 2010 Author Share Posted September 29, 2010 The "spaghetti" models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 29, 2010 Author Share Posted September 29, 2010 IR Sat view. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 29, 2010 Author Share Posted September 29, 2010 Close view.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 29, 2010 Author Share Posted September 29, 2010 Zoom it out a bit.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 29, 2010 Author Share Posted September 29, 2010 If..... you are interested in the satellite imagery and how it's derived, etc.; here's the tutorial: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/tutorials/goes_8/table_of_contents.asp [H] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 29, 2010 Author Share Posted September 29, 2010 Sea Surface Temps [sST's] area still rather warm, although beginning to cool off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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