Hurricane Season - 2011

[Jay481985]

Are you ATC and if so center, tracon, or tower?

[Dflip]

Some interesting pictures on CNN from Atlantic Beach, N.C. where the eye has passed and now the winds are coming from the west and pushing water from Bogue Sound onto the barrier island and flooding the island with two to three feet of water, with more in some areas. Aurora, N.C. was reported to have 4 feet of water downtown. It's located in a bay on the western side of Pamlico Bay.

The winds from this storm will affect the coast with a progression of winds starting from the southeast, then east, northeast, north, northwest and finally the west. The Jersey coast is projected to get 5 - 10 inches of rain with much of it on the western side of the storm. There are also an increasing number of smaller tornado warnings north of the North Carolina - Virginia border.

Lots of rain and flooding from the large extended rainfall and storm surge equals a very expensive storm with flooded first floors and basements.

New York City public transportation stops at 12 noon today and the power in the Lower Manhattan is going to be shut off early tomorrow morning. The N.Y. airports will be closed over the weekend due to likely flooding of both JFK and LaGuardia.

The other lovely news, guess what is likely to go up over the next two weeks or so.... gas prices.

[USNRET]

Are you ATC and if so center, tracon, or tower?

Customs and Border Protection P-3 AEW

[Jay481985]

Ah, I was wondering

[dtel]

Things are looking good so far, it's only a 1, much better than if had increased into a 2-3. []

[Jay481985]

Things are looking good so far, it's only a 1, much better than if had increased into a 2-3.

It is but the problem is that we have gotten 9 inches of rain when we get 4 inches for the month of August. Now the Hurricane will drop 9-12 inches.

[Dflip]

The 11 pm update. Check out the highlighted text below and another little reminder is what are those high rise wind tunnels like during a normal windy day? Now add a 75 mph wind and there could be a lot of flying objects at street level.

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

IRENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT
THE RADAR DEPICTION HAS DEGRADED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.   AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE THIS
EVENING HAS FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 92 KT AND SFMR WINDS
OF 66 KT IN A SMALL AREA MORE THAN 100 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER.
BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY OF IRENE IS BEING
MAINTAINED AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
WIND FIELD GRAPHICS BASED ON THE FOUR-QUADRANT RADII WILL DEPICT AN
UNREALISTICALLY LARGE AREA OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 020/14...AND IRENE REMAINS ON
TRACK. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SKIRT THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND MOVE OVER
NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER IRENE BECOMES A
POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES
INTO THE DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.

IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER UNTIL LANDFALL
OCCURS ON LONG ISLAND...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING OF MOST HURRICANES. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGE
WIND FIELD OF IRENE...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IT WILL ONLY TAKE MODEST CONVECTION TO
BRING DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE AS SUSTAINED
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OR GUSTS.

MORE SO THAN WITH MOST STORMS...THE WINDS WITH IRENE INCREASE
SHARPLY WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE.  AS IRENE MOVES THROUGH
AREAS WITH HIGH-RISE STRUCTURES...THESE BUILDINGS COULD EXPERIENCE
WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE SURFACE WINDS.  WINDS AT THE
30-STORY LEVEL WILL LIKELY BE 20 PERCENT HIGHER THAN AT THE
SURFACE...AND WINDS 80-100 STORIES UP COULD BE ABOUT 30 PERCENT
HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 37.3N  75.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 39.8N  74.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 44.0N  71.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/1200Z 48.5N  67.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  30/0000Z 52.4N  62.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/0000Z 57.7N  48.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  01/0000Z 60.0N  33.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/0000Z 61.2N  24.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Dflip]

New York missed the worst of it, but the flooding on the banks of the rivers of the surrounding areas is not so good. Manayunk in Philadelphia has flooding near the river. Upstate N.Y. and Vermont are experiencing flooding in areas inland. People need to stay away from these swollen rivers. So far 15 people have died and CNN showed fools swimming or trying to surf along the Connecticut and Rhode Island Coast.

[Jay481985]

I am in the theory that if someone does that and needs emergency assistance, too bad.

I have some nice pictures of my neighborhood. We are generally fine, power and water (non potable now) are working but the garage is flooded, a tree downed in my neighbor's garage though roof is intact. I do have a new fountain in my driveway (I will post pics) and my neighbor has a pretty damn nice looking waterfall staircase (I will post a video soon)

[Dflip]

Here is tropical depression twelve.

It appears that it's going far enough to the north that it will be head out to sea before it gets to the U.S.

[Dflip]

A NOAA link so that you can look at the flood levels in various rivers in the U.S. Take a look at Prattsville N.Y., Essex Junction, Jeffersonville and Central Rutland, Vermont and a lot of towns in New Jersey within 10 miles of the Hudson River.

This could be useful for other flooding occurances during the year. A good link.

http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

[Mallette]

Well, we are entering the 3 week period comprising the most likely time for Texas landfalls. While the high is still ruling (104 today) it's time for it to begin to fail.

It might be soon enough to affect TD12's path, or it might not.

Irene would have been better here than anywhere. An Irene would hardly impact us at all except for the sorely needed rain and a nice day at home, and the rest of the country wouldn't have been forced to watch continuous coverage of it.

Dave

[dtel]

Well, we are entering the 3 week period comprising the most likely time for Texas landfalls. While the high is still ruling (104 today) it's time for it to begin to fail.

It might be soon enough to affect TD12's path, or it might not.

Irene would have been better here than anywhere. An Irene would hardly impact us at all except for the sorely needed rain and a nice day at home, and the rest of the country wouldn't have been forced to watch continuous coverage of it.

Dave

If a storm does heads that way hope the rain gets to Texas before the wind, or it's going to be a dust storm as dry as it is.

[dtel]

Things are looking good so far, it's only a 1, much better than if had increased into a 2-3.

It is but the problem is that we have gotten 9 inches of rain when we get 4 inches for the month of August. Now the Hurricane will drop 9-12 inches.

One good thing was besides it being a 1 was that is was moving fast, I think like 14-15 mph, if it would have been going3 -5 mph you can guess how many more hours/inches of rain everyone would have seen.

Nine inches of rain is bad for inland areas, but along the shore a more powerful storm could have pushed the ocean up onto the land pushing all the buildings inland. In NYC a big storm surge could shut down everything for months, NYC shut down for months would cause problems in many other places, I would guess.

[Jay481985]

http://www.reddit.com/r/newjersey

seems Vermont and New Hampshire got the worst of it.

[Groomlakearea51]

I do have a new fountain in my driveway.

Ah! Welcome to the "joy" of tropical storm landscaping!! At least visitations by such weather events are seldom seen in your area.

While not too likely, TD12 or "Katia", also has the potential for heading towards the east coast between mid Florida and the Outer Banks. Hopefully, it will start to turn before it poses a significant threat to everyone on the east coast.

[Groomlakearea51]

TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011

500 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED OVERNIGHT...WITH

A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NOW SITUATED TO THE WEST AND

SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. THE 06Z DVORAK

INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 2.5/35 KT...AND ON

THIS BASIS THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE

STRUCTURE OF KATIA IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 15-20 KT OF

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS

MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. THIS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS

OR SO...AND AFTER THAT TIME STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD COMMENCE

AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.

MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD THIS CYCLE...AND

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS AS WELL. KATIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR

HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH CONTINUED

STRENGTHENING TO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END OF THE

PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT

INCLUDES THE HFIP INTENSITY AIDS.

A TIMELY AMSR-E PASS FROM 0326Z WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER

ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH WAS A BIT NORTH

OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/15...AS

KATIA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A

CONTINUATION OF THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE

MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AT

DAYS 4 AND 5...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A

MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD

RESULT IN SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE

REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BUT THERE ARE SOME FORWARD SPEED

DIFFERENCES...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS ON THE FAST SIDE OF

THE GUIDANCE AND THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE A SLOW OUTLIER. FOR THIS

CYCLE THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS...

AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE NHC FORECAST IS

VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR OR A LITTLE TO THE

RIGHT OF THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 11.8N 31.7W 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 30/1800Z 12.5N 33.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

24H 31/0600Z 13.5N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

36H 31/1800Z 14.4N 40.2W 60 KT 70 MPH

48H 01/0600Z 15.3N 43.7W 70 KT 80 MPH

72H 02/0600Z 17.0N 49.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

96H 03/0600Z 18.5N 54.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

120H 04/0600Z 20.5N 58.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

[Groomlakearea51]

Latest track path models.

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[Groomlakearea51]

They are hedging their bets on Katia, but the track paths are extremely consistent.

Rule of thumb is the slower it moves, the further north the track paths will tend to shift. This is due to the Coriolis effect. They very rarely move "south", or turn from a NW track to the west. Some variations do happen, but generally follow an east/ south east to west/ north west path. The longer they exist, the greater likelyhood they will begin to turn towards the north.

The faster they move, the less the turn. It's a physics & kinetic energy issue. Body in motion on a vector tends to stay on that vector until the force required to change the vector is greater that the energy keeping it on it's track.

The exception..... is of course when the storm sees decreased "resistance" to the natural path and Coriolis effect curvature.

They will always tend to "fall" or generally track towards the path of least resistance.

Note this effect for August storms

In some cases, particularly in the Carribean and the Gulf, they can not only turn north, they can actually turn east and cross Florida (Wilma, etc).

[Groomlakearea51]

and September....