Mallette Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 I still don't think it will happen in our lifetime. And if it does, we'll too old and to cripple to care. I suppose it depends on what you mean (with no apologies to Bill Clinton) by "it." My minimum need is already available on the market and will be affordable for my next car. Yer basic lane control with adaptive cruise, already available on mid-price cars like the Ford Fusion, takes a LOT of the hassle out of Houston freeways and the nastiness of I35 to Dallas. Next gen coming out now will do even more. Google level AVs at a 100mph remain a few years away...but that's fine. What is already here is well ahead of my own expectations which were well ahead of most, apparently, and continue to accelerate (as it were). Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Travis In Austin Posted November 17, 2015 Moderators Share Posted November 17, 2015 Well it's not AV by my definition, Dave...it's still "just" a driver aid. It is by their definition, and it works for me. Actually, all articles I read used the term. If one wants to get silly you can insist that it has to fuel itself, take itself to the garage, and air up its own tires to be truly "autonomous." I think no driver intervention while underway except in exceptional circumstances is generally accepted. It's been made clear that the function requiring the occupants hands be on the wheel is entirely to acclimate people to the idea. I haven't seen fine details, but I rather suspect the Tesla is quite able to follow navigation. Compared to the rest, that's no trick at all. Dave I think your target of what autonomus is has shifted over the course of your thread. We were talking about the Google car, the Audi car, cities that have made it legal for development. I think the fair definition is the one you suggest, when we can go to an event 2 hours away, have a great time, hop back in the car and say "home" (or punch it in, we don't have to be too technical) and it will drive you home while you enjoy the scenery. We are clearly not there yet, at any price. How much is the MB option? They are going to have it in Europe next year right, on those leased vehicles? Who else is offering assistive features for under 5k? Or is anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 (edited) We were talking about the Google car, the Audi car, cities that have made it legal for development. "We" who? I started the thread and haven't wavered from what I consider to be an AV nor have the developers. The Delphi car was my model and it's trip was considered a raving success. Delphi predicted the tech in that car would be under 5k by 2019. I went with their prediction. The Tesla tech is more advance than theirs and beat both the price and date handily. End of story. Yowing about the base price of either the Audi A5 or the Tesla is simply irrelevant. I haven't really looked to see who is doing what. Top end Fusions have the basic systems in place and I'd say 2017 isn't too much of a stretch for no hands required on highways at that price level. There will be some serious bumps as there WILL be accidents. No matter how rare (and they will be) they are the luddites will be all over them and push back with everything they have. It will slow things down but won't stop it. It's simply too compelling in all regards for everybody from the one percent down. Not many things are like that and when those ducks are in a row you can either go with the flow or spit and sputter. The denotative definition of "autonomous" means a mind of its own. I, for one, do not have ANY interest in that. I'll stick with the connotative, thanks. Dave Edited November 17, 2015 by Mallette Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Travis In Austin Posted November 17, 2015 Moderators Share Posted November 17, 2015 Well my recollection of what you were considering to be autonomus is clearly wrong. However, the benefits you are expecting from "autonomus" vehicles won't derive from these assistive features. I am pretty sure you said that drunk driving would be a thing of the past pretty quickly because of hands free driving. Where we are now is don't take your hands off the wheel but you can let it change lanes and slow down for you if you want? It isn't far enough at all to make any actuarial difference that will translate into insurance savings, in fact it will probably have the reverse effect initially. This level will have zero effect on traffic, conjestion or commute time. I think the self-parallel parking feature is way more advanced technologically than what Tesla says you can or can't do with their current system. How much is the Mercedes-Benz option? They seem to be backing theirs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Travis In Austin Posted November 17, 2015 Moderators Share Posted November 17, 2015 This is what I thought we were getting: "Recently demonstrated on the streets of Las Vegas at CES 2015, Delphi’s automated driving vehicle leverages a full suite of technologies and features to make this trip possible, including: Radar, vision and Advanced Drive Assistance Systems (ADAS) Multi-domain controller: High-end microprocessor to seamlessly drive multiple features and functions V2V/V2X: Wireless vehicle communication technology extends the range of existing ADAS functionality Intelligent software that enables the vehicle to make complex, human-like decisions for real-world automated driving Traffic Jam Assist Automated Highway Pilot with Lane Change (on-ramp to off-ramp highway pilot) Automated Urban Pilot Automated Parking and Valet" If we are truly there, I will be the first to pop the corks on the champagne and bring one to Dave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 The Google car they have in mind has no steering wheel or pedals. What do you call that? "Though trained test drivers must sit behind the wheel, Google wants to remove the wheel and pedals for the general public. Its argument: It would be safer to take all control away than expect a person to snap safely to attention in an emergency." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 This is what I thought we were getting: Travis, go back and read my first post. The other benefits will take a number years and will be a gradual thing. Last paradigm shift took about 10 years from horses to automobiles and similar claims that they shouldn't be allowed on the streets and were deadly (they were right about that one...amazing how much carnage we can get used to if we really want to), etc. I claimed two things: autonomy by the commonly used (industry and people as well) definition of hands free and less than 5k within 5 years. Tesla met that. Again, end of story. I am sure there are many things I mentioned over the past god knows how many pages that could be taken out of context but the first post is what it was all about. What you were hoping for will be here before you know it and will creep up on us all. It's already happening. I am not sure we will really know the cost of autonomy as it is already being gradually added. Tesla owners didn't even know it was there until it was turned on. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 The Google car they have in mind has no steering wheel or pedals. What do you call that? "Though trained test drivers must sit behind the wheel, Google wants to remove the wheel and pedals for the general public. Its argument: It would be safer to take all control away than expect a person to snap safely to attention in an emergency." And they are right. But getting people to realize that will take a while. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Travis In Austin Posted November 17, 2015 Moderators Share Posted November 17, 2015 This is what I thought we were getting: Travis, go back and read my first post. The other benefits will take a number years and will be a gradual thing. Last paradigm shift took about 10 years from horses to automobiles and similar claims that they shouldn't be allowed on the streets and were deadly (they were right about that one...amazing how much carnage we can get used to if we really want to), etc. I claimed two things: autonomy by the commonly used (industry and people as well) definition of hands free and less than 5k within 5 years. Tesla met that. Again, end of story. I am sure there are many things I mentioned over the past god knows how many pages that could be taken out of context but the first post is what it was all about. What you were hoping for will be here before you know it and will creep up on us all. It's already happening. I am not sure we will really know the cost of autonomy as it is already being gradually added. Tesla owners didn't even know it was there until it was turned on. Dave I went and read first post, Delphi Audi. The Tesla isn't one-forth of that Audi unless I am missing something. Delphi Audi features; Recently demonstrated on the streets of Las Vegas at CES 2015, Delphi’s automated driving vehicle leverages a full suite of technologies and features to make this trip possible, including: Radar, vision and Advanced Drive Assistance Systems (ADAS) Multi-domain controller: High-end microprocessor to seamlessly drive multiple features and functions V2V/V2X: Wireless vehicle communication technology extends the range of existing ADAS functionality Intelligent software that enables the vehicle to make complex, human-like decisions for real-world automated driving Traffic Jam Assist Automated Highway Pilot with Lane Change (on-ramp to off-ramp highway pilot) Automated Urban Pilot Automated Parking and Valet We are not even half-way there yet, which I would settle for. But there is still 3 years to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 Depends on what you mean by "there." No question the Delphi is more advanced...but you can't expect instant gratification. Frankly, I'd prefer they move bit at a time. The Tesla is gen 1. It's a long way from the Google concept of not only no human intervention needed, but none allowed. But both have been demonstrated and the rest will come. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muel Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I'll get more excited about this technology if/when it can remove speed limits and run stop signs and stop lights when safe to do so. Cut some time off my drive and give the kids a thrill ride at the same time. "HOME Jeeves... and make it FAST!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 I'll get more excited about this technology if/when it can remove speed limits and run stop signs and stop lights when safe to do so. My bet is no more than ten years out, maybe less. These things will remain as long as manual driving is allowed on public roads but AVs underway will be excepted from these laws before manual driving is made illegal. Probably will speed up acceptance quite a bit. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Let's get to the point Let's roll another joint And play the radio loud I don't care I'm not proud Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 I'm home now, Brian... Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Travis In Austin Posted March 22, 2016 Moderators Share Posted March 22, 2016 As I have stated in the past on this thread, the critical path to commercially available AVs is a uniform legal and regulatory framework, i.e., federal legislation. That process began last week in a Senate hearing of the Commerce Committee. The full hearing is available on the C-span website. All of the major players were there, Delphi, Google, GM, Tesla, were there and brought vehicles for Senators to drive/operate/ride. Here is an article giving a recap of the hearing. http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2016/03/15/google-alphabet-general-motors-lyft-senate-commerce-self-driving-cars/81818812/ These stakeholders want the legislation in order to make the massive investments required to make AVs a reality. GM has set aside a half a billion dollars for Lyft who they have partnered with to develop their software. There are a couple of issues. Some developers want to test with a licensed driver who can take over, others want to develop with no driver being required (or even present in the vehicle). Another issue of concern is preventing cyber attacks and backup systems. The article mentions a "couple" or a "few" years for assisted driving vehicles being widely available, and a "few" years after that. The process has thus begun for federal legislation and regulations for AVs. If Congress can move and get this done the path will be wide open for manufacturers to begin to make AVs widely available and on a time line originally suggested by Dave. Travis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Travis In Austin Posted March 22, 2016 Moderators Share Posted March 22, 2016 Some more in depth coverage and analysis of the issues from Auto Blog: http://www.autoblog.com/2016/03/17/senate-self-driving-cars-autonomous-privacy-google/ Some snippets from the article. Notice that Lyft wants to start the launch of full AVs, ride sharing, with no driver. They are positioning themselves as the best means to deploy a driverless AV. The other big issue is the privacy issue and there is some disagreement about this. This issue will become more and more important as things progress. Begin quotes During a separate portion of the two-and-a-half hour hearing, Urmson seemed more concerned with another factor threatening the country's position as an autonomous leader. "America is currently very much in a leadership position in this space," he said. "That said, Europe, China, Japan, they're hot on our heels. Not a day goes by that a company from China isn't trying to recruit engineers from our team and poach talent." General Motors' $500-million investment in ride-hailing company Lyft was on full display for Congress on Tuesday, as executives from both companies projected that ride-sharing companies would be among the first to deploy autonomous cars at a widespread level. " Cars: Big 'data-gathering machines' As Congressional hearings go, Tuesday's proceedings tilted toward innocuous. The only true disagreement between committee members and the panel of experts came when Sens. Ed Markey (D-Massachusetts) and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut) asked the industry leaders if they supported mandatory privacy restrictions for personal data streaming off self-driving cars. Markey authored a report last year titled "Hacking And Tracking" that concluded automakers were unprepared to thwart car hacking and had opaque standards for gathering, storing and sharing consumer data collected from cars. He has sponsored legislation that would, among other things, rate the effectiveness of cyber protections and prohibit manufacturers from disabling certain functions, like navigation, if consumers declined to share that data. "The fact of the matter is these cars will be one big data-gathering machine." – Mary Louise Cummings Executives hemmed and hawed when Markey asked them to support mandatory standards for privacy. They all dodged his request for a yes or no answer and concurred that they all hold themselves to their own privacy policies in place. Markey replied, "We don't pass murder statutes for our mothers. They're not going to murder anybody. We do it for the people who might murder others. So we have some sort of standard." END QUOTES Hemming and hawing, that is when I begin to worry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted March 22, 2016 Author Share Posted March 22, 2016 Even though I've followed this tech and its implications for years I have realized I really don't fully realize how disruptive it will be...and soon. I had compared it to the 1910 to 1920 period, one that completely changed America and the world, but this will be far more transformative. The realization of what is at stake is beginning to sink in even in Washington. The trillions of dollars involved will ensure that it happens. Let's just hope they get both the tech and the laws more right than wrong. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Great Dave, more hope and change. We have been looking for that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted March 23, 2016 Author Share Posted March 23, 2016 Brian, and all, this is NOT an issue I either foresaw any time before a few years ago or was really on my top list of things I'd thought we needed in the US like a renewed interest in space or a serious effort towards fusion or other low cost and safe energy. But, like cell phones, it came out of the corner and here it is. It isn't going to save our country or ensure our survival, but it is going to save trillions of dollars and untold lives. And I will be able to be mobile past the time I have any business manually operating a vehicle. This is good. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nitrofan Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 There is an interesting article about how autonomous vehicles react in the event of an emergency i wish i could remember. Basically take this scenario. What if you are riding in your autonomous car and another vehicle loses control for whatever reason blown tire,steering or suspension failure etc and your car has two choices,hit a busload of kids possibly injuring or killing some of them or driving you off a cliff and most likely killing you. Which will it do? Not saying i think this is a bad thing just a lot of stuff to consider. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.