Poll & Prediction: Autonomous Car Equipment at 5k by 2019

[Mallette]

That road is so straight you could almost just tie your steering wheel into position and place a brace on the gas pedal and go to sleep.

 

I've been doing that for decades.

 

Dave

[Gilbert]

"InnoDrive", by Porsche.......  Google it.

 

Don't get too excited, Porsche claims it won't be ready for some time, and predicts a 100% working version by 2020, but that is also good news, because Porsche generally delivers on the goods and are typically conservative with their numbers.

 

 

Clearly, I do not fall under the "Most Drivers" umbrella. If conditions are right, I'll push lateral acceleration well north of  0.7g's; 0.7g's is very respectable, and I like that porsche hasn't taking the pleasure of steering away from the driver.

Edited June 27, 2015 by Gilbert

[Mallette]

Ah, Gilbert.  I have a free sample of something that will make you feel GREAT!  Just try it...

 

"My take is that it works exceptionally well—decidedly better than most humans. And proving its original efficiency theory, Porsche says InnoDrive delivers about a 10-percent improvement in fuel economy compared to the average driver."

 

Pretty strong from a driving "enthusiast" which I, and probably most people, decidedly am not.  Nothing enthuses me less than my commute which is probably 80% of the driving I do.

 

Anyway, quoted that economy improvement even though it was only something of a footnote.  That's MASSIVE on a global scale. 

 

Dave

[oldtimer]

Googles self driving suvs now in Austin.

[Mallette]

Resistance is futile.  You will be upgraded.

 

Dave

[Mallette]

Alrighty.  So, I was wrong by 4 years and half the price.  Tesla started providing a Model S software update yesterday at 2500.00 that provides full autonomy.  Yes, I expect to hear "but you have to keep your hands on the wheel" and "it makes you take over in construction zones and when markings aren't clear," blah, blah. BS.  Under normal freeway conditions such as those I encounter in my commute I'd be fully in AV mode all the way.  I must say I am curious as to what the car does if it senses your hands aren't on the wheel, alerts you, and you don't respond.  My assumption is that it must sound a more strident alarm and then pull off, stop, turn on the emergency flashers, and summon help as that's really the only rational thing for it to do sense this could mean the driver is unconscious.  We shall see.  But, in any event, I admit to being too conservative.  Sorry about that, and my apologies to you horse lovers, rush hour congestion mavens, and death defying NASCAR wannabees.  The times they are a'changin, and I a jazzed about it.

 

WASHINGTON — It is not every day you get to open a door and step into the future.  But to pull the handle on a newly updated Tesla Model S this week and slide into the driver’s seat was to catch a glimpse of the auto industry’s plans to soon let cars drive us, rather than the other way around.

The updated Tesla, an already high-tech electric car that starts at about $75,000, was equipped with what the company calls Autopilot — a semiautonomous feature that allows hands-free, pedal-free driving on the highway under certain conditions. The car will even change lanes autonomously at the driver’s request (by hitting the turn signal) and uses sensors to scan the road in all directions and adjust the throttle, steering and brakes.

 

It is the first time that a production vehicle available to consumers will have such advanced self-driving capabilities. Or more to the point, the first time they will be unleashed for driving 70 miles per hour along twisty, though clearly marked, highways for long stretches. (Other manufacturers like Volvo and Mercedes-Benz recently introduced their own semiautonomous features, but limit the functions to lower speeds or require the driver to constantly touch the wheel.) And it’s perfectly legal. Among the states, only New York has any law prohibiting hands-free driving.

 

Thursday morning, Tesla owners woke up to discover that their vehicles can wirelessly download the new autopilot feature as a software update. That means the next time you see a Model S cruising next to you on the interstate, look closely: It may be driving itself.

 

Autopilot is not free (the download costs $2,500), and it is not yet perfected (clear lane markings are needed, and bad weather can affect its abilities), but it works remarkably well under normal circumstances.

 

So, the game is afoot and I am getting out of the prediction business as I suspect I'd be way too conservative in predicting when critical mass will be reached.  Many of you will be saying "They'll get my wheel from my cold, dead hands" but since that's the way it happens for 50,000 already every year that won't be very original.  That is going to drop to near airline levels.  The huge sums of money being spent on new highway construction, high speed rail, and public transit will translated to simply using much less to bring the existing crumbling infrastructure to first class status with a LOT of money left over.  Billions and billions in lost time, medical costs, and property damage will gradually disappear...as will your liability insurance.  Lots of lawyers will be needing a new specialty.  And we are going to have a LOT more time on our hands.  Wish I REALLY had a crystal ball as I believe this will be far more than I've stated.  The change from a nation on horseback to a nation behind the wheel occurred in 20 years time.  Incredible, and the entire paradigm of life changed.  Its happening again.  Full speed ahead (FINALLY!).

[Jim Naseum]

And with this comes another thick layer of abstract complexity to life. Updates, downloads, corruptions, hacking, backups,defensive protection layers, passwords, insurance programs, and what are simply referred to on the news as "glitches."

First, they ruined TV, now they will ruin driving.

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[joessportster]

Have not read this whole thread bit I do wonder why anyone believes insurance companies would lower a rate

 

I recall 1 argument for seatbelt use was it will lower Insurance Rates due to fewer fatalities...............My rates have only increased, never saw 1 damn dime of the supposed savings and thats with a clean record no tickets and no accidents

 

I dont see insurance rates as a legitimate argument for going auto.......................I think it might be cool but I am always late to the parties I cant afford new carrs today much less when they add another few thousand for the pleasure of not driving myself 

[oldtimer]

Good point joe  Insurance rates are based more on repair costs than injuries or fatalities.  If fully auto actually does drastically lower fender benders and other wrecks then theoretically competition could drive rates down.

[Mallette]

Have not read this whole thread bit I do wonder why anyone believes insurance companies would lower a rate

 

Two reasons:

 

1. Liability will become tracked by the onboard device and active only when a human is in control, as a human cannot be held liable for the actions of a computer. 

 

2. Rates are based on actuarial math, and as estimates are that accidents will be reduced in the most conservative estimates by 90%, rates will have to be reduced accordingly.  If your company doesn't the, gecko or another will.  Nature of competition.

 

These aren't my ideas.  They are that are generally accepted by experts in the field.  It's reasonable to expect your rates to fall gradually and when the time comes when no high speed driving is allowed on public roads except under autonomous control...which I am not going say what I is going to happen as folks seem to be upset by this progress...your rates should fall by 90%.  As to when, I think it obvious that cars under AV control will be allowed in HOV lanes almost immediately, within a few years.  Reserved lanes will begin to appear rapidly.  Costs of AV will drop very rapidly and people...certainly folks like me...will adopt as rapidly as it becomes affordable. 

 

Went to a wonderful concert tonight at a billionaires home about 2 hours north through Houston.  Coming home I was thinking just how wonderful it would be just to say "Home" and enjoy the ride. 

 

Dave

[oldtimer]

about 2 hours north through Houston.

 

So basically it was just on the other side of Houston....

[joessportster]

I would LOVE to be proved wrong Dave I just have more faith in there greed than there Honesty in business practice 

[Wolfbane]

Only way I'm letting something else drive me from point A to point B is if I'm dead and therefore no longer capable of pushing in my clutch and rowing the stick shift from gear to gear. 

[Mallette]

So basically it was just on the other side of Houston....

 

Yep.  Worst part of a trip to Dallas.

 

Dave

[Mallette]

Only way I'm letting something else drive me from point A to point B is if I'm dead and therefore no longer capable of pushing in my clutch and rowing the stick shift from gear to gear.

 

For safety and good flow of traffic there will be less and less places where that is allowed.  In the not too distant future, you will be allowed manual control only when the vehicle insists on it.  While I have been surprised at the number who can't seem to understand either the logic or the inevitability of this the reasons are pretty clear.  You cannot allow chaos in an ordered system.  Nor do I want a vehicle that is 90% more likely than another to cause an accident on a road my family is on.  Manual drivers will, by the time my son is a young family man, be considered as drunks are today as the results will be the same or worse...though I suspect AVs will be better at avoiding them than we are.

 

I am sure "free range" driving areas will be set up for those who still like the thrill of death which many have become so accustomed to.  But I look forward to NEVER seeing those burning or mangled masses of metal with first responders desperately trying to remove victims.  I've seen enough in half a century.

 

Dave

[Jim Naseum]

If you squint just a little you see another huge government shadow being cast over life.

Driver: Ok Google, take us to Sea World!

Car: Sorry, I can't do that. You have already used your monthly energy allotment. You have 3.6 miles remaining. Would you like to go to Wall Mart instead?

The horse, and later the car, are symbols of American freedom. We have loved our cars as freedom machines more than any other country. A rolling box, on a network, with layers of control, isn't going to go down easily.

Danger is just the price of freedom. When you eliminate all danger, don't be surprised if you have eliminated all freedom.

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Edited October 19, 2015 by jo56steph74

[oldtimer]

Freedom's just another word for

Nothing left to lose

[Jim Naseum]

The autonomous driving car is the next pearl in the "Internet of things" necklace. The Internet of things is a string (chain) that runs through each human in a dozen places, and leads back to some central authority. Call it Google, call it the NSA, call it anything you want, but it is a central function. What we know about centralization historically is not good. 

 

On September 12, 2001, we limited who can get on an airplane by totally physical methods - body searches and the like - one person at a time. Given some new future crisis, the Internet of Things will allow a few button pushers to deactivate suspects remotely.  Phone doesn't work, car won't start, credit chip deactivated, ATM blocking, email blocked and so on. Maybe for the right reasons, or maybe not. That, we do not know. But, to me it doesn't look rosy. 

[Mallette]

Dave

Call it Google, call it the NSA, call it anything you want, but it is a central function.

 

Nothing like an End of Timer.  They've been with us for centuries...and they'll be with us for hundreds more. 

 

Almost got me.  But rather than responding to that red herring which can be applied to everything from cell phones, to the grid (already under "their" control), to the health care system, to anything.

 

It's just a car following the laws of supply, demand, advancing technology, and logic.  It isn't a plot by aliens.  I'd prefer do discuss the pros and cons of the technology than deal with doomsday scenarios.  

 

Dave
 

[Mallette]

Danger is just the price of freedom. When you eliminate all danger, don't be surprised if you have eliminated all freedom.

 

Like to turn the aged, the blind, disabled, deaf and the rest of our handicapped community loose on you.  They don't have freedom.  The AV will provide it to them.  Some of them actually need to get to WalMart. 

 

And, NOTHING goes down that easily.  Folks like you decried the train as a tool of the devil.  Those on horseback hated those in model T's.  There was violence when horses were banned in many cities as safety and health dangers. 

 

Change isn't easy for many, but I wouldn't trade my new eye lens and insulin pump for the freedom to die of the 19th century.  Those who hate technology should move to the woods, make candles, and huddle by the fire.  I want the freedom to travel, and to do so as long as I can crawl to the car and say "WEST! No Interstates, old US highways only...I'll tell you when to stop" 

 

Dave

Edited October 19, 2015 by Mallette