oldtimer Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 You go first then I'll follow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldenough Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Age before beauty...or shit before the shovel... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted May 28, 2015 Author Share Posted May 28, 2015 Members 1,884 posts 0 warning points LocationBritish Columbia Offline Posted 27 May 2015 - 06:13 PM It may be a good idea Dave, but the poll that you started says the majority want to regain control... I mentioned earlier that a Forum where so many (like me) are stuck on 70 year old speaker technology and vacuum tubes probably isn't representative. Others I am around seem excited and I know quite a few folks who have bought recently and all went with the latest. This is not a "cause." Just the march of time and progress. Neither you, nor I, nor polls will have any effect on it. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 While this thread has to date mainly proven denial is not just a river in Egypt, things have moved right along in even the past few months. Pace of change continues to quicken. http://www.wired.com/2015/04/delphi-autonomous-car-cross-country/http://www.insurancejournal.com/magazines/features/2015/05/18/367653.htmhttp://www.trucknews.com/mobile-and-it/peterbilt-shows-off-autonomous-truck/1003065881/https://transportevolved.com/2015/05/20/to-avoid-the-question-of-whos-to-blame-in-autonomous-vehicle-accidents-tesla-has-a-low-tech-solution/http://www.cleanfleetreport.com/safer-and-self-driving-cars-now-on-roads/http://qz.com/349051/soon-american-highways-could-be-overrun-with-self-driving-trucks/http://www.wired.com/2015/04/delphi-autonomous-car-cross-country/ Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrWho Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 I read the first link....and found two interesting quotes: "There’s no indication that it’s capable of handling the road with far more skill than a human." "The car did 99 percent of the driving on its own, yielding to the carbon-based life form behind the wheel only when it was time to leave the highway and hit city streets." - and then later they describe how it took a human to handle all of the specific safety scenarios they encountered along the way. Sounds like my perspectives are further validated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 (edited) As are mine. 99%. Win, win. Perfection of the machine is much easier than improving on human imperfection, source of 95% of all accidents. Glad you noticed I did not pick and choose. Just presenting the technology without spin. Dave Edited June 16, 2015 by Mallette Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Travis In Austin Posted June 17, 2015 Moderators Share Posted June 17, 2015 Oh yes I'm with the MAJORITY...Let all of them who want it stand in front of one... Do you ride elevators? OK...I said I would not engage with the horse crowd on emotional issues I don't understand. We have a death in Houston almost weekly of a bicyclist. The most often given reason...which I understand and have experienced...is "they were invisible." Not to a machine, they wouldn't be. Even if not 100% effective simple bicycle alerts would save a lot of lives. Dave Yes, almost every day. But elevators are regulated, the subject of extensive legislation, uniform standards and mandatory inspections. I think that may be where the concern lies, the eventual major expense and regulation the more autonomus the vehicle becomes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Travis In Austin Posted June 17, 2015 Moderators Share Posted June 17, 2015 (edited) Houston elevators are particularly troubling. http://www.snopes.com/horrors/freakish/elevator.asp Edited June 17, 2015 by dwilawyer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 17, 2015 Author Share Posted June 17, 2015 Yes, almost every day. But elevators are regulated, the subject of extensive legislation, uniform standards and mandatory inspections. I think that may be where the concern lies, the eventual major expense and regulation the more autonomus the vehicle becomes. Given what's at stake there will be a lot of eyes on the technology. But no matter how expensive it is the savings in road construction, lives. productive time, medical expense, personal litigation, and such will totally outweigh the cost. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrWho Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 So what happens if there isn't a reduction in deaths, etc... ? What then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 From a rational standpoint, pretty absurd, Mike. I think I can say that 95% or more of the errors I make using my computer are human errors. Seems to me intercepting a ballistic missile has to be a lot harder than avoiding another vehicle or road debris, yet they've managed to make that work amazingly well. Don't think looking through a sight and pulling a trigger would be quite so reliable. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrWho Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 The thing about autonomy is that it always behaves the same way. If you can handle 99% of all situations (yay, huge success, right?), then you are always failing 1% of the time. It's not like that 1% magically doesn't occur, or works partially. 100% of the time that 1% results in failure of some kind. And what are the ramifications of that failure? Well in the case of a construction zone, I can imagine all sorts of nasty realities. Ok, so we throw technology at the construction zone problem - and create all these new systems to handle that corner case. Now our 1% is 0.5%.....we still have 100% failure for 0.5% of road conditions. What percentage of vehicles are going to encounter that 0.5% over a single commute? That sounds like a lot of accidents waiting to happen....How much does it cost to add another system for each corner case? The rational perspective here is analyzing the ramifications of something that will occur. The thing about human errors causing accidents is they don't always occur - and there is absolutely a level of personal responsibility in those scenarios. An autonomous system that can fail, will always fail under those conditions. There is no randomness to it.....every autonomous car goes careening in the wrong direction in the unhandled scenarios. That's the difference between cognition and autonomy. And this is assuming systems that are fully functional.....throw mechanical failures into the mix and it just gets way uglier. I believe this is why we are going to see things move in the direction of driver aids instead of full autonomy....it's the only way to keep the cognition in the system. Why do you think fighter jets have pilots? On the road the cognition itself isn't the problem (except in very rare instances)....it's the distractions. Not once have I heard you talk about solutions to the distraction problem, or the drinking problem, or any number of the much easier to solve problems. It always has to be the technology god to save our souls from the evil torments of today's technology. Let's promote the mindlessness of our culture. Cell phone related accidents can't happen if there are no cell phones. Drunk driving accidents can't happen if nobody is drunk behind the wheel....etc. Those are problems with straightforward solutions. Why aren't you backing those efforts? And you're going to lecture us on absurdity? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Let's look at the science. The cross country trip was interrupted only by a confusing construction zone. It was quite clearly WAY better than 99% given the thousands of miles of differing road encountered. And this one roads where not a whit of improvements to aid navigation have been made. So, let's take just a single stretch of dangerous, overload highway...I-45 Houston to Dallas. That's about 4.5 billion dollars a mile. Betcha you could place transponders, special paint, and other aids on that stretch of highway that would allow even current AV technology to double or better capacity and improve both speed and safety and have 9 billion or a lot more left. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacksonbart Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 For the people who want computers to drive... take the train. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 (edited) Get a horse. Actually, more appropriately, respond to this post by U.S. Mail. Don't let a computer do your communicating for you. Dave Edited June 23, 2015 by Mallette Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Another average day in Houston yesterday. 225 backed up for approximately 5 miles due to a lane changing fool. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Home, Jim & through the spared horses... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidt Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 This is why we can't have nice things Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 25, 2015 Author Share Posted June 25, 2015 Autonomous Cars Brochure.pdf Autonomous Cars 2015. Brochure attached. You luddites will pleased, or not, that I can't see a single objection that has been brought up here that is not a subject of discussion. For me, the event and subject matter is exciting from the sheer acceleration that is underway in the technology and its deployment. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Let's look at the science. The cross country trip was interrupted only by a confusing construction zone. It was quite clearly WAY better than 99% given the thousands of miles of differing road encountered. And this one roads where not a whit of improvements to aid navigation have been made. So, let's take just a single stretch of dangerous, overload highway...I-45 Houston to Dallas. That's about 4.5 billion dollars a mile. Betcha you could place transponders, special paint, and other aids on that stretch of highway that would allow even current AV technology to double or better capacity and improve both speed and safety and have 9 billion or a lot more left. Dave That road is so straight you could almost just tie your steering wheel into position and place a brace on the gas pedal and go to sleep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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