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Poll & Prediction: Autonomous Car Equipment at 5k by 2019


Mallette

Autonomous Vehicles: Good or Bad  

49 members have voted

  1. 1. Are autonomous vehicles a good witch, or a bad witch?

    • Good
      20
    • Bad
      28


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Don't really want to debate details as these things are and will be self-defined in time.  However, I consider "lane control" to be all of the above, from a simply warning, to vibrating the wheel, or attempting to correct.  I consider collision avoidance to be simply the addition of automatic braking to adaptive cruise. 

 

If the two above systems are good enough, the only addition needed to achieve my definition of AV is connection to the steering. 

 

This is a pretty slick looking AV.  The space between concept cars and production is shrinking rapidly.

 

Dave

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I understand perfectly.

 

Here's a few vintage 1950's & 60's magazine cover and article shots to help reel-in your prospective regarding the rapidly shrinking space between concept and production,... to say nothing about the design-development stage (on paper), versus the actual proto-type development stage; or to even mention the grand-canyon sized gap that exist between conception versus proto-type versus production (assuming it make it that far).

 

Be sure to click on the attached, to increase the size and be able to read the caption. On one of them, you get the comments for one of Ford's top engineers of the time.

 

Most of these are vintage 1950's, enjoy.

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Edited by Gilbert
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3 of 5 look very much like cars that were built, especially the corvette looking one.

 

Not sure what you mean by "reel in."  The LOOKS of concept cars do rarely make it as they are designed to draw attention.  However, the technology makes it.  The Chevy technology is real enough, but I would even want the rather Vulcan looking styling. 

 

Those were just pictures and such to sell magazines...I had a friend who had a collection he'd inherited of Pop Sci and Pop Mechs that went back to WWI.  Some of the stuff they predicted was truly bizarre...but lot's of fun.

 

Should also point out that some of the things that make those predictions look downright sensible DID happen.  You thing even Pop Sci would have run a story in the 1950s about a phone/HDTV/Computer/vital signs monitor/geolocater that fits in your pocket?  They'd have called security...it's worse than preposterous. 

 

Dave

Edited by Mallette
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  • 4 weeks later...

Google cars will be out and about this summer according to this article.

Google's new self-driving cars hit the road

http://flip.it/aSCFz

 

 

 

The road is not the only thing they're gonna hit...... and god help you if you happen to live in the area where they'll be testing and are passed up by one (as the article suggest), because they'll be topping out at a whopping 25mph with a guinea pig (errr, I mean Co-Pilot) riding shotgun. 

 

"Google hopes to have its version on the road by the end of the decade." Hmmmm, seems I've heard that before.

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Well, Gil, keep your hopes up if you hate progress and want yer horse back.  The deployment continues to exceed my predictions.  Bear in mind the Google car is a PURE autonomous vehicle without a driver option.  Much more advanced than yer basic AV or "self driving" car.  The 25 mph limit is for you and those like you, not because of the technology.

 

They are pretty much here now,  and in only two years.  Keep watching...things are changing too fast to really predict.

 

Dave

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Our definitions of "Progress" are completely different, and unless you've changed your mind, you're originally posted anticipated date of arrival for the POS autonomous car is only slightly premature relative to the date predicted by Google. I'm still willing to make that bet, if your game????? We'll make it friendly, like a case of OT's finest hot sauce.

 

Not sure you even read the article, it' wasn't that long, and you're comment about Google's POS autonomous car being "Much more advanced....." is inconsistent with Google article, but if it makes you feel good, more power to yea. Per Googles article, the same software used in the autonomous Lexus experiment is being used in the little 25mph putt putt.... and I'm pretty sure that speedy 25 mph max. speed has more to do with Google's insurance premiums and damage control than it does drivers like you, or me..... but good luck with that, and more power to yea.

 

FWIW, there's wrong with a nice horseback ride, but I would much prefer the squealing tires and loose end of a Porsche GT3.

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Not a betting man, Gil, even on my own BS.  OK, ESPECIALLY on my own BS.  I did, indeed look at the link...and you are correct, obviously we look at "progress" differently.  When a car is fielded without human controls, that's progress to me.  Unless you are not able to read between the lines the "removable" controls are merely to condition the public.  Same for the 25mph limit.  In fact, the whole discussion of "still having to figure out" liabilities and such is, IMHO, red herring pure and simple.  Those liabilities and such are obvious and clear and all involved know precisely what they are doing. 

 

The technology is already far superior to human drivers.  Not where it will be, but already much safer than a human.  That isn't opinion, it is scientifically proven fact.  1.7 million miles, 9 accidents, 8 not the fault of the car and the other one a manual drivers fault. 

 

Not sure if it was that one, but the number I hear consistently from all sources is a 90% reduction in fatalities.  1.2 million traffic fatalities world wide last year.  Do the math, and see how long you think you want this technology to be held back.  In a world where objective science and moral imperatives were honored, governments would be making this a public project of the highest priority.

 

Dave

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Not a betting man, Gil, even on my own BS. OK, ESPECIALLY on my own BS. I did, indeed look at the link...and you are correct, obviously we look at "progress" differently. When a car is fielded without human controls, that's progress to me. Unless you are not able to read between the lines the "removable" controls are merely to condition the public. Same for the 25mph limit. In fact, the whole discussion of "still having to figure out" liabilities and such is, IMHO, red herring pure and simple. Those liabilities and such are obvious and clear and all involved know precisely what they are doing.

The technology is already far superior to human drivers. Not where it will be, but already much safer than a human. That isn't opinion, it is scientifically proven fact. 1.7 million miles, 9 accidents, 8 not the fault of the car and the other one a manual drivers fault.

Not sure if it was that one, but the number I hear consistently from all sources is a 90% reduction in fatalities. 1.2 million traffic fatalities world wide last year. Do the math, and see how long you think you want this technology to be held back. In a world where objective science and moral imperatives were honored, governments would be making this a public project of the highest priority.

Dave

The removable controls are not to condition the public, they are to comply with current law. Google cars have the steering wheel and peddles to comply with California law.

As I have said before, even if the technology is there the legislative framework had a long way to go to catch up.

There are local testing areas, 5 or 6 across the USA, one in Texas, Nevada passed special legislation for Google, so states are picking up on it, and at some point there will be national legislation to make it all uniform.

One will have to hope that the law can keep up, if not, it will be delayed.

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The removable controls are not to condition the public, they are to comply with current law

 

My understanding is that they are removable.

 

Do all the testing areas require them?  I am not keeping up with every little thing, only the big leaps...which are coming quickly. 

 

Dave

Edited by Mallette
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Google cars will be out and about this summer according to this article.

Google's new self-driving cars hit the road

http://flip.it/aSCFz

 

Is that video aliasing, or is that spinning sensor up top really running at low Hz cycles per second? Maybe that's what is limiting the 25mph speed...... ;)

 

Average speed on a tight autocross course might be around 30 to 40mph at the end of the day. Let's keep the 25mph speed limiter on the Google car and compare laptimes of the the human versus the computer driving it.

 

I gotta talk to my buddies at Google and see if they'd be up for the challenge. Racing is the real litmus test for me.

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Average speed on a tight autocross course might be around 30 to 40mph at the end of the day.

 

It's around 30 mph for the course at the Tulsa Fair grounds, and about the same for the course the local SCA sets up at Retama Park just north of San Antonio.

 

About 25 min. west of Tulsa there's a reasonably nice, purpose built road course called Hallett, at that venue the avg. speed might touch a little above 40mph, even though a bike can hit 70 or 80 along the straight. The twisties are just that, it was first time in my life I got chicken strips, and wore a hole in the knee of my cheap leathers.

 

 

 

Let's compare the nearly a million deaths per year that researchers agree AV's will prevent.

 

Dave

 

I tried OT, I tried.

 

Hey, on another note, I went to Houston for my "Failure to Pay Toll" violation about a week ago. I was in good, bad company. Met 3 other 50-something daredevils like myself. 2 of them were from out-of-state. One poor basterd drove all the way from Charleston, S.C., the other poor soul drove from Mississippi. This Mississippi dude must have had throat cancer, he had to speak through one of those hand held devices. Both of them paid for hotel rooms, so I guess I was lucky, since I only had to leave the house at 4:30 in the morning.

 

As usual, I was early on the scene, and got to sit around to check out all the lovely people. Didn't have to sit there more than 1 min. to know I was in a Big City, saw some really bad looking dudes while sitting in a hallway chair waiting for the window to open. Also had a nicely built trailer park blondie came to hit on me, but that's another story..... told my wife about it, she almost keeled over laughing. I think I'd a rather gone out with Ronda Rousy.

 

I never got to meet the judge (Hon. ? Ridgeway), don't remember his first name. Anyway, I met with one of the DA's flunkies and she promptly dismissed the ticket when I showed her my receipt. After she dismissed it, I asked her why there were no toll booths on the toll roads, and that I would have gladly paid the toll if I had been offered the option. She was quick and smug, and said that not all the toll roads in Houston were like that. Some had Toll Booths were a traveler can pay, and that most had cameras that click a picture of your tag and mail you the bill.

 

Anyway, I'm ready for next time, I purchased my EZ Pass for all my cars, no more toll road worries.

 

Cheers!!

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As a man of modest means I really would be happy with a cayman.

 

Then the new GT4 is just the thing for you. Start advertising your Hot Sauce, and there might just be one in your driveway before too long. Sadly though, they aren't going to make the autonomous version anytime soon. ;)

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Edited by Gilbert
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Racing is the real litmus test for me.

 

Not sure how that would work.  Two AVs are not going to race, they are going to cooperate.  A human racing one will always win as all you have to do is something stupid to win. 

 

Dave

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Racing is the real litmus test for me.

 

Not sure how that would work.  Two AVs are not going to race, they are going to cooperate.  A human racing one will always win as all you have to do is something stupid to win. 

 

Dave

 

 

Dave....I don't think you're familiar with Autocross. Only one car is on the track at a time and it's a timed event. You take your fastest lap of the day.

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Average speed on a tight autocross course might be around 30 to 40mph at the end of the day.

 

It's around 30 mph for the course at the Tulsa Fair grounds, and about the same for the course the local SCA sets up at Retama Park just north of San Antonio.

 

About 25 min. west of Tulsa there's a reasonably nice, purpose built road course called Hallett, at that venue the avg. speed might touch a little above 40mph, even though a bike can hit 70 or 80 along the straight. The twisties are just that, it was first time in my life I got chicken strips, and wore a hole in the knee of my cheap leathers.

 

 

 

Let's compare the nearly a million deaths per year that researchers agree AV's will prevent.

 

Dave

 

I tried OT, I tried.

 

 

Ya, it really comes down to how twisty they make the tracks. The club I run with generally makes a 0.5 mile track and we're running low to high 50 second lap times. The race cars might get into the high 40's. I also know I keep it in second gear the whole time, which means I'm in the 25mph to 58mph range of speeds.

 

To the second point...I don't think people are really interested in saving lives. Researchers are always grasping at everything to justify their endeavors. The reality is people are going to die in AVs - just wait until there are issues with the sensors. It's not a big deal when the "assistive" sensors fail because the responsibility is still wholly on the driver to pay attention. Heck, they can't even get the weight sensor correct on the passenger seat for turning on the airbag....

 

And then there's Toyota - their stupid drive by wire throttles keep sticking. I've caught it half a dozen times in my FRS....I think their fix was to just shorten a watchdog timer so it only sticks for a short period of time. Thankfully I drive a stick so I can engage the clutch when it happens. It's annoying as heck though when you're racing - and it's not the carpet since tech inspection makes you remove all that stuff. An extra 100ms on the throttle really throws you off and disrupts the vehicle balance. Just imagine that with the torque from an electric motor.....and you can't exactly disrupt the voltage source without introducing a huge flashover from the inductive kick.

Edited by DrWho
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Mike, I certainly see no reason to change my attitude towards the value of human life just because others don't care.

 

And of course people will die in AVs.  They die in airplanes. The die in mall parking lots.  They die in bathtubs.

 

You aren't making points that mean anything to me.  One is a comment on the evil nature of humans, the other is a tautology. 

 

I am glad you enjoy driving and are thrilled with high risk environment.  As for me and my family I want a 90 percent better chance of not being a number on one of these Houston death total signs.

 

Dave

Edited by Mallette
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