Poll & Prediction: Autonomous Car Equipment at 5k by 2019

[Mallette]

BTW, I hate chicken schit politicians. Identify and select limited groups to tax so as to not offend so many that subsequent elections are lost. It doesn't matter if it actually works or not. Can, meet foot.

 

On this we are in violent agreement, my friend.

 

Dave

[Mallette]

Funny one, Brian.  Hope the info is more reliable than the images.  Note the picture of traffic in the Woodlands is evacuation due to Ike!  Not surprising.  Gil could have gotten have a dozen images yesterday of freeways jammed going both directions.  Actually, he probably had time to paint them!

 

Dave

[Mallette]

So, the Delphi car was manually intervened twice.  Once when it didn't want to get a in a busy left lane when a police car was on the right shoulder and once in a confusing off freeway construction zone where the humans were wandering around uncertainly as well. 

 

Not too bad for technology many seem to thing is decades in the future.  They recorded dated equal to 30% of the Library of Congress.  Improving on that 99% should take long. 

 

Seems the worst thing was the car refusing to break the speed limit.  That's one of the fascinating issues I await a fix for.  Of course, the AV doesn't need a speed limit...but that will come only with all AV HOV lanes and highways.  But for now, the majority of drivers are NOT safe and do not believe the law applies to them.  And they HATE anyone who actually obeys the law.  Apparently, they got a lot of fingers shot at them on the trip.  Now, of course, a driver who obeys all the laws is actually an unsafe driver given the lack of sanity on our roadways...so something will need to give.  Certainly the builders cannot design in a "reasonable and prudent" sense so the care always calculates and travels the prevailing speed of traffic like a good human driver does.  In my case, I drive either 4 mph over the posted limit or the prevailing speed of traffic and never in the left lane unless I am passing or that lane is clogged anyway. 

 

Here's my "workaround:"  The makers, under the excuse that an individual may experience a medical issue that incapacitates them from driving while they are alone, build in an "emergency" mode that allows the vehicle to travel up to a user chosen level regardless of speed limit.  Then, of course, they'd need to make sure that another level allows the "prevailing speed of traffic" rule to remain engaged if the "driver" so desires. 

 

What do you think?  I am sure there are other sticky issues coming down, but this is an important one.

 

Dave

[DrWho]

The speed limits are set with an assumption that there will be a bell curve distribution of speed, and that the peak of the bell curve will be faster than the speed limit. At least it's that way in Illinois. Unfortunately I can't find that article, but it was pointing out that it is worse for traffic patterns if everyone goes the same speed - even assuming everyone drives ideally.

[Mallette]

but it was pointing out that it is worse for traffic patterns if everyone goes the same speed - even assuming everyone drives ideally.

 

Someone should inform the airlines...

 

Dave

[Gilbert]

 

but it was pointing out that it is worse for traffic patterns if everyone goes the same speed - even assuming everyone drives ideally.

 

Someone should inform the airlines...

 

Dave

 

 

Only in a highly controlled environment, such as a holding pattern around airports, or when 2 or more planes fly in formation, or stunt planes executing a move, etc......  is that ever considered safe.

 

I'll let that sink in, and see if you tune-in to why that is a very poor comparison. WHO is correct.

 

 

You're comparing Watermelons to Jalapenos.....  yea, it's that bad.

Edited April 3, 2015 by Gilbert

[Mallette]

I agree, Gil.  Back to autos.

 

It remains a mystery to me how it can be more efficient to vary speed with a completely interconnected system rather than achieve the maximum speed possible for conditions.  In the morning, I drive on roads where individuals are up to 35 mph differing in cruising speeds.  I'd say the average possible safe speed is about 70.  If it were not for the human factor, I've little doubt all could move at 80 or more. 

 

Why would varying speed make this more efficient?  I honestly can't begin to figure that out. 

 

Dave

[Gilbert]

I agree, Gil.  Back to autos.

 

It remains a mystery to me how it can be more efficient to vary speed with a completely interconnected system rather than achieve the maximum speed possible for conditions.  In the morning, I drive on roads where individuals are up to 35 mph differing in cruising speeds.  I'd say the average possible safe speed is about 70.  If it were not for the human factor, I've little doubt all could move at 80 or more. 

 

Why would varying speed make this more efficient?  I honestly can't begin to figure that out. 

 

Dave

 

In a highly controlled environment, where everybody rides passenger, with cars are on rails, e.g. controlled paths, and then only on a system that is completely interconnected (and being watched by some poor dimwit on a monitor), then and only then...... maybe.

 

Public road systems will never be completely interconnected in our lifetime, or that of our children, as I see it.

 

You're avg. safe speed is based on what?  Quality of car?  Type of car?  Type of road surface?  Tire condition? Weather?  Wheel bearing condition? Brake pad condition?  Oil pump condition?  Radius of turn? The assumption that there will never being a box of nails on the road?  Max. depth of pot holes will never exceed 5 centimeters? Street/Highway level of congestion at full,  half or isolated and in the middle of West Texas? S.E. New Mexico?  Eastern Half of Wyoming?   Downtown Chicago, New York?  Or maybe that's the safest speed at which you can launch a car over a canal or river Bridge Gate that's stuck on a empty highway in FL, Maine, Mass, RI?.... do you see where this is going?  do you see why this idea won't happen in our lifetime? Good or bad idea, it doesn't matter,......    Not in our lifetime.

 

 

 

Save your autonomous car money, buy a gas sipping car and hire a chauffeur.

Edited April 3, 2015 by Gilbert

[Mallette]

It's already tested, Gil, and it's simple.  Every vehicle "knows" via connection up and down the line the most efficient speed for all.  It isn't even complicated.

 

That's why I am not understanding why somehow varying speed helps.  There is one, and only one, efficient speed for all vehicles on a freeway. 

 

I've done very little technological crystal ball work in this thread.  Mostly repeating what's already been developed or announced.  I learned decades ago to never say "not in my lifetime" and the like.  I am not remotely that well educated and, honestly, I don't think the scientists and engineers themselves are all that accurate these days when technology changes in a matter of months. 

 

Dave

Edited April 3, 2015 by Mallette

[oldtimer]

It has been demonstrated that traffic moves in a practically identical manner as molecules of gas.  That's why the delays are still there way after the accident or whatever reason for delay has been removed.  Only by overcoming this with engineering will the problem be solved.  Or of course in Dave's ideal avoided altogether.  The solution is possible, the crux is a system that actually works.

[NOSValves]

With the reliability of computers in general including the computer systems currently built into modern automobiles I seriously doubt the accident rate will be decreased when millions of these cars are on the streets, so IMHO thinking this is going to be some big insurance cost saver is a pipe dream if I ever heard of one! Then the hacker possibilities will surely come up.....I see all kinds of problems with this wet dream... no way will I trust this crap.

[Gilbert]

It's already tested, Gil, and it's simple.

 

It's simple, damn, why didn't you say so......  Ok, SOLD!!!

[Mallette]

With the reliability of computers in general including the computer systems currently built into modern automobiles I seriously doubt the accident rate will be decreased when millions of these cars are on the streets, so IMHO thinking this is going to be some big insurance cost saver is a pipe dream if I ever heard of one!

 

Explain the big, consistent lie of the 90% reduction?  I didn't make that up.  it's consistent.  Granted, appears pretty conservative to me but it's certainly consistent.  Given the entire planet is now totally dependent on computers for everything that keeps us alive I certainly hope they aren't as unreliable as you say.

 

And it's a bit misleading to suggest AVs are computer based.  They are not.  Many independent subsystems run by logic, yes, but by some central system, no.  Unless your car is over 10 years old it's entirely dependent already on such systems.  How reliable is it?  I know mine is FAR more efficient and reliable than the analog systems of old, like points. 

 

Dave

[DrWho]

Not everyone is travelling along the same route. Your airline example is a single intersection of planes lining up to get on the same path to the same destination.

You need cars to drive different speeds to create gaps for merging because everyone is driving to a different location.

Btw, the reason bad traffic happens is because there are more cars than available road.....that problem doesn't magically go away with autonomous vehicles. I'm fairly convinced it'll make things worse actually. I think the risk of hacking precludes a mesh network between cars, so there will be no interleaving intersections, and certainly not at speed.

[Travis In Austin]

It's already tested, Gil, and it's simple.  Every vehicle "knows" via connection up and down the line the most efficient speed for all.  It isn't even complicated.

 

That's why I am not understanding why somehow varying speed helps.  There is one, and only one, efficient speed for all vehicles on a freeway. 

 

I've done very little technological crystal ball work in this thread.  Mostly repeating what's already been developed or announced.  I learned decades ago to never say "not in my lifetime" and the like.  I am not remotely that well educated and, honestly, I don't think the scientists and engineers themselves are all that accurate these days when technology changes in a matter of months. 

 

Dave

It was tested, in the 90s, on the Interstate in San Diego County and it is called "platooning" or "coupling." Pictue a string of vehicles connected like a train. They are very closely spaced because they are all equipped with adaptive cruise. They communicated with each other becausr so specially designed lane that was a designated for these autonomous vehicles.

There really isn't an efficient speed, there is the speed limit as upper limit and then lower as congestion builds. They don't select a speed together, the lead vehicle sets the speed based on what is ahead of it. If it is clear ahead it goes speed limit, if it has to slow down to let a vehicle in the line, all vehicles slow down at same time belike a train because they are connected. Cars entering into the line will slow it down because space will have to be created for them and then they will all accelerate together. For it to be more efficient than independent traffic they must be able to operate closely spaced so that more vehicles can fit in a given space. The result is you are able to move more traffic together in a given space.

It requires connectivity and a system that is standard across brands. It will take longer to develop and implement than individual Autonomous vehicles being commercially available and may require legislation to mandate the means of connectivity and the standard system.

A designated lane provides the incentive to purchase a compatable vehicle. However, once the lane becomes overloaded with vehicles the advantage becomes less and less until another lane is added.

[Mallette]

It requires connectivity and a system that is standard across brands. It will take longer to develop and implement than individual Autonomous vehicles being commercially available and may require legislation to mandate the means of connectivity and the standard system. A designated lane provides the incentive to purchase a compatable vehicle. However, once the lane becomes overloaded with vehicles the advantage becomes less and less until another lane is added.

 

I've mentioned more than once that there will be a time of confusion and much to be worked out over a few years.  As we tend to be reactive rather than proactive it's likely to be pretty chaotic for a while and nothing will operate as efficiently as it might.  I understand now that you were speaking of manually driven vehicles.  Automated vehicles will always create a gap to for another to merge (unlike Houston drivers who tend to try to cut off a merging care or one trying to change lanes) and there will be no slower vehicle holding things up unless there is a safety issue requiring all vehicles to move more slowly. 

 

I was talking to the PAW last night about there being certain old Federal two lane or four lane roads that would make ideal AV-only routes since AV's don't need all the space on freeways or all the complexities required to keep human drivers from hitting each other.  AVs could maintain freeway speeds readily on those old roads, many of which are in excellent condition being built "like they used to." 

 

And, yes, most of those in the technology say our road system is way overbuilt by AV standards.  I happen to "enjoy" a Houston commute that is one of the lightest in the area.  However, I note that it is often clusters of vehicles separated by reasonably open areas as nobody is doing anything consistently.  If all the vehicles were evenly spaced at the same speed capacity would be much higher.

 

Dave

[JJkizak]

 

It requires connectivity and a system that is standard across brands. It will take longer to develop and implement than individual Autonomous vehicles being commercially available and may require legislation to mandate the means of connectivity and the standard system. A designated lane provides the incentive to purchase a compatable vehicle. However, once the lane becomes overloaded with vehicles the advantage becomes less and less until another lane is added.

 

I've mentioned more than once that there will be a time of confusion and much to be worked out over a few years.  As we tend to be reactive rather than proactive it's likely to be pretty chaotic for a while and nothing will operate as efficiently as it might.  I understand now that you were speaking of manually driven vehicles.  Automated vehicles will always create a gap to for another to merge (unlike Houston drivers who tend to try to cut off a merging care or one trying to change lanes) and there will be no slower vehicle holding things up unless there is a safety issue requiring all vehicles to move more slowly. 

 

I was talking to the PAW last night about there being certain old Federal two lane or four lane roads that would make ideal AV-only routes since AV's don't need all the space on freeways or all the complexities required to keep human drivers from hitting each other.  AVs could maintain freeway speeds readily on those old roads, many of which are in excellent condition being built "like they used to." 

 

And, yes, most of those in the technology say our road system is way overbuilt by AV standards.  I happen to "enjoy" a Houston commute that is one of the lightest in the area.  However, I note that it is often clusters of vehicles separated by reasonably open areas as nobody is doing anything consistently.  If all the vehicles were evenly spaced at the same speed capacity would be much higher.

 

Dave

 

Trains do that pretty well---cluster.

JJK

[Mallette]

Actually, we did it pretty effectively back in the days of the double nickel.  Anybody remember "convoy?"

 

Dave

[CECAA850]

This thread is really a moot point when you have one of THESE .  I think I saw him texting though.

[Mallette]

The only half sensible design for a flying car is the Moller.  And the jury remains out as to whether Moller is a genius or a crackpot.  It's conceptually brilliant...but then, so are the warp drives on the Enterprise.  Building it is a whole 'nuther matter.

 

Dave