Poll & Prediction: Autonomous Car Equipment at 5k by 2019

[Mallette]

I don't think we desire the same human existence...

 

Perhaps not.  I want freedom.  Freedom from the drudgery of doing that which a machine can handle for me so I can do things a machine can't.  Time saved to spend out in nature, listening to music, and having stimulating discussions...like this one. 

 

Dave

[Travis In Austin]

Still churning this topic I see. Read a study reporting that in upwards of 15% of people who ride in autonomous vehicles will get motion sickness. Hope they come with barf bags.

Carry on.

That is interesting. Is that because they anticipate they will be reading or something else that their attention is inside the vehicle? I know a lot of people who cannot read as a passenger in a vehicle.

[Travis In Austin]

Which toll road is that down in Houston that doesn't do toll by mail? I didn't even know that existed.

All of Houston's Toll Roads are like that. I mentioned this very thing to the young lady who assisted me at the EZ Tag store. She said, "we don't have that here". Freaking Dallas at least has toll booths where you can pay, Houston gives you a dic in the arse, with the cherry on top being a ticket requiring a mandatory court appearance. It's no wonder Dave wants an autonomous car. Driving there sucks rocks, big time. I'd hate to think what it's like over by NASA during rush hour. OMFG, IH45 btwn Galveston and Houston is suppose to be a biach, and I've always left Galveston taking the back roads to Schulemburg, so I'd pop out approx. 1.5 hrs. west of Houston, and well away from traffic hell.

Anyway, I was told that the EZ Tag works on all Texas Toll roads, including my favorite, State Hwy 130 between Seguin and Austin. They say it goes all the way to Dallas, but I've never taken it that far.

[Travis In Austin]

It terminates on the northern end just north of Georgetown. It was initially supposed to go up to the Metroplex and beyond, as part of the Trans-Texas Corridor project, but that project was killed in the last session.

[DrWho]

So quantify it Dave, pick a traffic jam in Houston and then show us the alternative routes.

Wreck at Preston Road/La Porte Freeway this morning. I had two viable routes to get around it. Without the data from other vehicles to help I had to guess. Luckily I saw the info sign and knew I'd be able to see the backup well before getting there. But I still had to choose either the Jesse Jones bridge over the channel or the service road. Made the right choice and my delay was minimal but would have preferred not to have to guess. There are always alternatives except at bridges and a few other places. Even then, when traffic is down to a lane or two the complete "me first" attitude of most drivers here so slows and creates such stress...and often secondary accidents...as to cut the potential speed of getting through in half or worse.

Dave

How many cars in that traffic jam? At least a hundred?

How did throughput increase 5x because your one car had an alternate route because you were near your destination? You improved the interstate bottleneck by 1% at best, netted yourself a slight loss and marginally decreased the flow for others on the adjacent side streets.

You're not talking about this from the whole perspective of the thousands of drivers commuting during that period. If everyone went down the side street, then the side street would be even slower.....and it'd slow down the other side streets intersecting with it even more.

Btw, Google maps and Waze are each more than sufficient to remove the ambiguity of your decision. I take advantage of this all the time, but the time benefit for me goes down exponentially as more people do it. The time benefit for the whole system is barely impacted because the dominant bottlenecks remain.

Still not seeing the simple 5x....

Chicago is in the top ten of worst traffic. I'd say that it's less than 1% of the time that I can't maintain at least the average speed afforded by the speed limits. My commute is also never more than 2x the typical time, and that's with massive flooding shutting down half the roads. Let's say it is ten times worse for the average driver (which it's not). Over the course of a year, that's only 20% reduction possible on the table. And you're not going to get all 20% back with the current roads.

There is a finite safe speed and safe following distance. I'm comfortable with the 1.5 car lengths I give at 85mph. How fast and close you gonna push your AVs? Train wrecks are really messy for those on the train...

[Mallette]

The DOT always suggested one car length for every 10 mph.  In my 30s, since that was too hard to gauge they said 1 second for every 10mph and to use the car in front passing a light pole or whatever to judge.  Perhaps you have super reflexes, but if you get 1.5 car lengths from me at 85 I am pulling to the right because I am screwed if you so much as glance at the radio and I have to panic stop.

 

In any event, it's clear you aren't for this.  It's clear I am not against it but quite happy to go with progress.  I don't have beliefs about science.  Stuff either happens or it doesn't.  I enjoy keeping up with it.  I find the line between "likely" and "unlikely" pretty much between Lockheed's CFR and Andrea Rossi's eCat.  Rossi is almost certainly insane, but Lockheed has no such history.

 

And that is where I stand on most things regardless of the level of paradigm shift involved.  No emotion, just fascination.  What I think is irrelevant. 

 

Dave

[muel]

Sometimes "Progress" isn't progress.

 

"Progress" is qualitative.  I think your glasses might have a bit of a rose tint.  

[Mallette]

I think your glasses might have a bit of a rose tint.

 

Always ready to listen and learn.  In what way do you mean?  I really attempt objectivity...but we all know that is unobtainable even with effort.

 

Dave

[DrWho]

The left lane in Chicago during rush hour is usually doing 75mph with less than one car length between cars. You don't rely on your reflexes, you look ahead beyond the car in front of you, and the cars beside you. There's plenty of slam on the brake moments, but usually you're trying to brake as little as possible to help out the guy behind you. You want your AVs doing the same don't you?

Btw, I'm just arguing the merits of AVs. I'm not against it, but I do fear that something I very much enjoy is going to get legislated out due to empty promises. AVs are probably going to happen in my lifetime, but won't be "nice" until well after I'm gone.

For the record, I absolutely enjoy driving in rush hour. It's a fun optimization problem that is different everyday. Think of it like a Sudoku. No radio, no phone, just me and the car. I know that's not for everyone, and that's why everyone else will want an AV. Convenience and comfort, it's the American way. It's a plus that it requires less knowledge...

[Mallette]

It's a fun optimization problem that is different everyday.

 

Mike, knowing you as I do I am not a bit surprised except that it didn't occur to me. 

 

Enjoy!  You have plenty of time left...certainly at least as much as the horseman of 1903 or so.

 

Dave

[Gilbert]

The left lane in Chicago during rush hour is usually doing 75mph with less than one car length between cars.

 

 

Geeezus, just the thought of being in that makes me car sick.... and I never get car sick.

 

 

I do fear that something I very much enjoy is going to get legislated out due to empty promises. AVs are probably going to happen in my lifetime,

 

You can count on some bureaucrat of a lawyer and chauffeured politician championing the idea long before it's ready. But on the positive side, you'll likely be old and gray before that happens.... unless of course the bureaucrat responsible for the legislation that brought us the national maximum speed limit of 55 mph (now dead, thank you very much) had offspring with a JD degree serving in public office.

 

You were probably lucky enough to not have experienced the 55 mph law....  and with a little luck, you might just squeak by a national law requiring all cars to be equipped with a autonomous mode that can be triggered to take over.

[Travis In Austin]

"unless of course the bureaucrat responsible for the legislation that brought us the national maximum speed limit of 55 mph (now dead, thank you very much) had offspring with a JD degree serving in public office."

You mean Nixon? Yes he had two daughters, Julie and Tricia. Tricia married a Harvard lawyer who is the head of the New York Republican party. Julie is an author and and is active in her dad's presidential library.

Nixon was disbarred in New York and voluntarily surrendered his license to practice in California and the Supreme Court.

I remember the "double nickle", I also remember when he asked everyone to not put up outdoor Christmas lights.

Here is what Dick had to say when he signed that law into effect:

"I AM pleased to sign into law H.R. 11372, an act aimed principally at helping to reduce gasoline and diesel fuel consumption during the energy crisis.

This legislation will encourage State governments to establish maximum speed limits on their highways of 55 miles per hour. The continued receipt of Federal highway trust funds by the various States will be conditioned upon the establishment of these speed limits.

I have been gratified and encouraged by the number of States which have already voluntarily reduced their speed limits in accordance with my request. I have also been pleased by the response of so many Americans to my request that they slow down on the highways even when the speed limits have not officially been lowered. Estimates indicate that we can save nearly 200,000 barrels of fuel a day by observing a national limit of 55 miles per hour.

This bill also will permit the use of highway funds to support the cost of carpool demonstration projects, which can do so much to reduce the number of automobiles being inefficiently used on congested urban highways. The Department of Transportation is studying methods to improve the effectiveness of carpooling, and this legislation will require a report to the Congress on this matter by the Secretary of Transportation.

These steps are just two of many that can and will be taken to help us through this period of acute energy shortages.

With the attitude of cooperation and mutual concern expressed by a wide range of conservation actions by individual Americans, the social and economic impacts of the energy crisis can be minimized and we can look even more confidently to the day when we will become self-sufficient in energy."

[Gilbert]

I couldn't give a ratzass what the party affiliation is, and come to think of it, I don't even believe one was mentioned. Don't even care who the nimrod was that signed it into Law.... so with that in mind, Republican, Democrat, Progressive Democrat, Liberal, Independent, Libertarian, or whatever the future holds.... no more lawyers in politics, particularly those that turn it into a career and have never run a successful business, could only be a good thing.

 

http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/nixon-signs-national-speed-limit-into-law

 

Trick Question:

What did Nixon do, that none before him had ever done?

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

Answer:

Get caught.

Edited April 20, 2015 by Gilbert

[DrWho]

That's an interesting excerpt Travis.

One thing I'd like to see that will never happen is to change highway speed limits to momentum limits. I like the idea because it'd allow nimble cars to drive faster, but it'd also reduce fuel consumption. You could probably include a drag coefficient into the equation as well if you really wanted to motivate better efficiency.

The ideas of momentum and drag and whatnot are too complicated for the average citizen to calculate on the fly, but modern gauges could easily have the appropriate offsets built into the car. It'd certainly make traffic enforcement more complicated, but I think that's a good thing. I just don't understand what damage was done to society by speeding, and yet cops spend a lot of time writing tickets for it. I think there should be no penalty for speeding until you actually cause a problem....and then the fines should be huge and scale with the severity of the incident.

Anyways, that has nothing to do with automation. Those Nixon comments made me think of speed limits in general. Do you think those perspectives are still valid today?

Edited April 21, 2015 by DrWho

[Travis In Austin]

Who,

They were not valid then, and may only slightly valid now, and I think that is what Golbert's point was. They projected a 2% gas savings by going to 55. It turned out to be .05% to 1%. It remained as for over twenty years because it was political. It did see a bump up to 65.

There is a great deal of debate as to how many lives were saved, if any, because of the reduction, but that became the political football.

I think I am pretty much in agreement with Gilbert's sentiments, except in the terminology. We don't want politicians involved in the design and future planning of traffic systems.

We want career professionals, free of polotical influences, doing the designing and planning. However, that is what a bureaucrat is. Whether it is State, local or federal, it is either departments of transportation that plan and design these things, or politicians, or both. They are all in competition for a limited supply of funds.

I have quoted language from a federal law on AVs that as an example of Congress giving the DOT guidance on developing AVs, and told them to move forward. It is fairly general on purpose.

[DrWho]

"They are all in competition for a limited supply of funds."

That competition has nearly crippled Chicago public transportation....I think there are three different departments under one umbrella in Chicago, but they all find alternative sources of funding to undermine the umbrella vision. As a result the El, trains, and busses all have different schedules and frequently don't have stops near each other since nobody is planning together. I guess it's just one of the downsides to a capitalist system.

I do wish our politicians would be more compromise focused when it comes to such issues. They demonstrate great wisdom on the things that aren't as popular to discuss, but then turn into kids fighting in a sandbox on the more visible issues. I'm always fascinated by the shift in tactics / antics.

[Mallette]

Can't imagine any speed limits on AV only roadways.  As mentioned, should be up to the design of the vehicle and the overall needs of traffic flow.

 

However, main reason I dropped back in was that I road in a "normal" price vehicle, a 2014 Subaru Outback.  Basically everything except automatic steering, 1400.00 option for the radar for lane control.  The owner is a fellow parishioner and we were going across Houston following a truck carrying part of the pipe organ that was going to the builders shop before being installed.  He's a serial entrepreneur a few years older than me, and former Citadel football player.  Pretty independent sort who doesn't always obey the helm.

 

I noted a beeping every time he changed lanes.  He told me it wouldn't do that if he signaled.  His wife had asked him why he didn't turn it off, and he said he didn't want to as it was useful information.  He also said that getting used to the adaptive cruise had be quite hard...but that he was totally sold on it now.  He said that, at first, he totally concentrated and when a vehicle ahead started to slow or other issue developed he be just about to act and the car would already be doing so, and much more precisely than he would.  That includes braking. 

 

So, he allowed that he was total ready for a full AV and hoped to get one next vehicle. 

 

Interestingly, NPR ran a story this morning concerning the "rapidly approaching" fully autonomous vehicle.  They went through available technology and pointed out that it was most commonly available on Mercedes, Cadillac, and the like and then said that it was also available on Subaru's for 1400.00.  The fascinating thing was that they said 40% were paying the price for it. 

 

I find that amazing and encouraging.  Subaru buyers aren't high rollers so these people must see value in the technology.

 

Dave

[Gilbert]

As a result the El, trains, and busses all have different schedules and frequently don't have stops near each other since nobody is planning together.

 

Don't know or understand too much about Chicago, except that it's a great place to visit for a short while.

 

Based on your statement above, I would suspect they (L's  &  CTA) are independently exercising diligent planning for how to best compete for funding. In other words, the apparent lack of coordination with scheduling is intentionally done.

 

 

 

 

I'm always fascinated by the shift in tactics / antics.

 

You're in the right city if that shyt fascinates you. Do you live in Chicago or commute there for work?

 

 

 

 

 

I think I am pretty much in agreement with Gilbert's sentiments, except in the terminology.

 

Sorry, I get carried away sometimes. Need more work I guess, things have slowed a bit since the price of oil dropped.

 

 

 

Interestingly, NPR ran a story this morning concerning the "rapidly approaching" fully autonomous vehicle.  They went through available technology and pointed out that it was most commonly available on Mercedes, Cadillac, and the like and then said that it was also available on Subaru's for 1400.00.  The fascinating thing was that they said 40% were paying the price for it. 

 

Be more specific, what technology are you referring to. I ask because there's stuff that could be considered geared toward autonomous vehicles found in pick-up trucks.

Edited April 21, 2015 by Gilbert

[Mallette]

Lane control, adaptive cruise, collision avoidance.

 

Dave

[Gilbert]

When NPR discussed Lane Control, did they mean Lane Departure Warnings features (such as audible tones combined with seat and/or steering-wheel vibration to alert the driver), or true autonomous "Lane Control", where the vehicles' on-board systems take over, and electronically maneuver the vehicle as necessary?

 

Did they mean Collision Avoidance, as in current systems designed to minimize the damage for a single type of collision, i.e. Frontal Collision Warning, or a true autonomous "Collision Avoidance" system designed to prevent any or most type of collisions.

 

Various methods of Adaptive Cruise Control have been around for sometime (10 yrs.), along with the above on many high-end luxury autos, and of course these systems have been finding their way into more and more lower priced vehicles. But it's been my understanding that this thread has been all about true "autonomous" vehicles, at least that's how I interpreted the purpose of your postings.

Edited April 21, 2015 by Gilbert