Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 17, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 17, 2007 The "talking heads" just interviewed Max Mayfield, the former NHC director. He's one of the most respected meteorologists. Mayfield clearly stated that folks in Louisiana should better pay very close attention to this.... Duh..... I wish Max was still with the NHC....what a loss he was! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 17, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 17, 2007 This is going to be a close call???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 And in the "let's screw the little guy" category...... The Coast Guard is soliciting public comment on the need to continue providing high frequency (HF) radio broadcasts of weather forecasts and warnings. The Coast Guard broadcasts NOAA National Weather Service weather forecasts and warnings using 24 HF radio transmitters located at seven Coast Guard communications stations in the United States and Guam. There are three types of HF radio broadcasts currently provided: Voice broadcasts that transmit a synthesized voice to announce the forecasts; Radiofacsimile, also known as "radiofax" or "HF Fax" broadcasts, that transmit weather maps and other images over HF radio; and, Simplex Teletype Over Radio (SITOR) broadcasts, also known as Narrow Band Direct Printing (NBDP). The 24 HF transmitters employed to transmit weather forecasts and warnings are not, because of their age, providing the reliability the Coast Guard expects from its radio transmitters. These particular transmitters are no longer manufactured and replacement parts generally are not available, making it difficult to repair them. If the HF weather broadcasts are to continue, the transmitters must be replaced. Significant costs will be incurred to replace the transmitters and associated infrastructure. Before seeking funds for this undertaking, the Coast Guard must gather evidence relating to how frequently, and under what circumstances, the maritime community uses the various types of HF radio weather broadcasts. In addition, it would be helpful for the Coast Guard to learn about current and future needs of the maritime community with regard to receiving weather forecasts and warnings over HF radio, and what alternatives are being used or might become available. Comments may be submitted through the following methods: Web: http://dms.dot.gov/submit/ (press "Continue" when the page loads) Mail: Docket Management FacilityU S Department of Transportation400 Seventh Street SWWashington DC 20590.0001 Fax: (202) 493.2251 Please include Coast Guard document number USCG-2007-27656 on your submission. You may also view comments that have already been submitted. The following are questions related to Coast Guard HF radio broadcasts on which we seek your comments. It would be helpful if commenters would answer the questions as specifically as possible, and then provide explanations, if any, for the responses. (1) What is your position in the maritime community? (Please be as specific as possible, e.g., captain of 600. oil tanker, 1st mate on 500 unit containership, owner/operator of 45. cruising sailboat, fleet manager of a 27 vessel shipping company, yacht delivery captain, etc.) (2) What are your primary sources for obtaining marine weather forecasts? (For example, Inmarsat-C/SafetyNet, USCG HF radio broadcasts, USCG medium frequency (MF) Radio Broadcasts, USCG very high frequency (VHF) radio broadcasts, NOAA Weather Radio, NAVTEX, shoreside Internet, radio/ television, commercial service/system, etc.) (3) Do you use Coast Guard HF radio voice broadcasts to receive marine weather forecasts? (Yes or No) If yes, how often do you use Coast Guard HF voice broadcasts and how critical are they to your safety and operation as compared to the other sources you listed in your response to Question 2? (4) Do you use Coast Guard HF radiofax broadcasts to receive marine weather forecasts? (Yes or No) If yes, how often do you use Coast Guard HF radiofax broadcasts and how critical are they to your safety and operation as compared to the other sources you listed in your response to Question 2? (5) Do you use Coast Guard HF radio Simplex Teletype over Radio (SITOR) (also known as Narrow Band Direct printing (NBDP)) to receive marine weather forecasts? (Yes or No) If yes, how often do you use Coast Guard SITOR radio broadcasts and how critical are they to your safety and operation as compared to the other sources you listed in your response to Question 2? (6) What alternative source(s) for obtaining marine weather forecasts would you pursue if Coast Guard HF broadcasts were no longer available? How would you rate the alternative source(s) in terms of (a) user cost and ( usefulness of the information as compared to the Coast Guard HF broadcast it replaces? (7) Would the loss of Coast Guard HF marine weather broadcasts affect you? Please explain. (8) How far seaward does your vessel primarily operate? (For example, coastal (0.25 nautical miles (nm) seaward); offshore (25.200 nm seaward); or, high seas (more than 200 nm seaward.) In what geographic area(s) do you generally operate your vessel? (For example, mid-Atlantic, New England, North Central Pacific, Hawaii, Gulf of Mexico, etc.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 This is going to be a close call???? The problem with a storm like this is akin to a crazy guy standing in the street in front of your house with a shotgun. He's gonna shoot somebody. No-one wants to admit they hope it's the next door neighbor... But he's gonna' shoot somebody in 10, 9, 8, 7, etc..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 A nice graphic that shows the sea surface temps. Note the hot zones..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 AND AN ANALYSIS FOR THE LAST SEVEN DAYS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 This is the "anomaly" chart, and why if Dean shifts ever so little to the north (GFDL scenario) why it will be a very bad thing... Note the abnormal (anomalous) temps in the Yucatan Channel.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 One of the things that's been keeping us safe for so long was the SST (sea surface temp) off the coast of Africa stretching quite far to the west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Some other interesting things that they use.... "New Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system interface now operational". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Example of what they look at as it comes off the super computers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Notice the banding detail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 SREF imaging, which also includes the thunderstorm activity which has plagued the mid west and northern US. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 INTERESTING SUPERCOMPUTER RAW GRAPHIC USED IN PREDICTIONS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Dtel's wife: "Insider Information"? Here you go: Fresh off the Global Ensemble Forecast System supercomputer run; Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 17, 2007 Author Share Posted August 17, 2007 Look where that funny big red spot is supposed to be in 132 hours (6-7 days from now)... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 17, 2007 Moderators Share Posted August 17, 2007 Marshall, Is that big red spot where I think it is? BTW, Buddy skipped second class tonight....so I am back in class. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted August 17, 2007 Share Posted August 17, 2007 The GFDL has started to drop allready. Doesn't someone owe Groomy a beer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted August 18, 2007 Share Posted August 18, 2007 Sat. A.M., it's dropped SUBSTANTIALLY South.[Y] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 The GFDL has started to drop allready. Doesn't someone owe Groomy a beer? Yeh!! Where's my beer??[][][H][<)] "Have Supercomputer, Will Predict for Beer"........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 18, 2007 Author Share Posted August 18, 2007 HURRICANE DEAN FOR SATURDAY MORNING COFFEE TIME....Several things have happened during the night which make the outcome predictions a little better for the Gulf Coast. Still, the most significant problem with the storm is that it will be very, very powerful. The GFDL model still nudges the thing to the north towards Texas, but not like last night's "scare". The GFDL will be less of a major track prediction factor the closer it gets to the Gulf. Reason: the track models begin to cluster and align when it's within the 3 day level. Another factor that we should "hope for" is the routine "eye wall" replacement cycle. When the storms due this, intensity drops while that is occuring. The storm, however, still continues to move. An eye wall cycle in the last hours before landfall would be a preferred scenario. NEAR 0500 UTC...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 154 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OFDEAN...AND ALSO REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FELL TO 930 MB. THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS COULD HAVE JUSTIFIED CALLING DEAN A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. HOWEVER...DATA FROM DROPSONDES...THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATESDID NOT SUPPORT THAT STATUS. THE INTENSITY WAS THUS SET TO A SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE 130 KT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF DEAN SINCE THE AIRCRAFT LEFT...SO 130 KT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. (I feel sooo much better...)[:S]THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/15...AGAIN SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN BEFORE. DEAN CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72-96 HR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MOVES WESTWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD JAMAICA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS...WITH THE TRACK DOWN THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION. AFTER THAT ...UKMET...GFS...AND CONSENSUS MODELS CALL FOR A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE GFDL CALLS FOR A MOTION THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE TEXAS COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS CALL FOR A MORE WESTERLY MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL YUCATAN AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. THE TRACKFORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BESTAGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS.SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH 72 HR DUE TO INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS ON TOP OF THIS DUE TO DIFFICULT TO TIME EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. PASSAGE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING...FOLLOWED BY RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 18/0900Z 15.1N 67.3W 130 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.6N 69.6W 130 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 16.5N 72.8W 135 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 17.6N 76.4W 135 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 80.0W 135 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 20.5N 86.5W 140 KT (150+ miles per hour) 96HR VT 22/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W 110 KT120HR VT 23/0600Z 24.5N 98.0W 115 KT...INLAND Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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