Hurricane Season - 2010

[Dflip]

11 pm update

1100 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION
THIS EVENING.  VERY LITTLE BANDING FEATURES ARE SEEN AND THE
CENTER IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...BASED ON
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB.  NOAA BUOY 41041
HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 25 KT ABOUT
70 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS EVENING WERE HELPFUL IN LOCATING
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE CYCLONE HAS ACCELERATED DURING
THE PAST 6-12 HOURS...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/20.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS.  DURING
THIS TIME THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE
APPROACHING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IN THE LONGER RANGE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT.  THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD MUCH EARLIER...WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND LIES ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  ALTHOUGH THE TVCN CONSENSUS
SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY EASTWARD THIS CYCLE...WE PREFER TO KEEP THE
TRACK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEAK AT THAT TIME.

THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING.  IN 36-48 HOURS...
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS
IS EXPECTED TO HALT ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  THE NEW FORECAST
IS A LITTLE BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LGEM AND GFDL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/0300Z 13.6N  45.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 14.6N  48.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 16.0N  52.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 17.7N  56.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 19.6N  59.9W    50 KT
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 23.5N  65.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     07/0000Z 27.0N  68.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     08/0000Z 31.0N  69.5W    45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Dflip]

Hurricane Colin.

TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CURVED
BAND WRAPPING HALFWAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
SUPPORTING A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT.  THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME.  COLIN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...WITH MODERATE TO
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  THEREAFTER...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE STORM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY
A LEVELING OFF OF INTENSITY THEREAFTER.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST GFDL MODEL FORECAST AND NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
NHC FORECAST.  NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL OR STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS COLIN TO HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT
5 DAYS.

CENTER FIXES SHOW THAT THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT
285/20.  AT THIS TIME...THE STEERING FOR COLIN IS BEING PROVIDED DUE
TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC
EASTERLY JET.  THIS RELATIVELY FAST STEERING CURRENT SHOULD MORE OR
LESS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS WOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT
ALONG WITH A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT
FORECAST TIME...THE MODELS BECOME MODERATELY DIVERGENT WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDL
AND HWRF ON THE RIGHT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE...FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 41041 OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC INDICATE THAT COLIN IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM...AND THE
WIND RADII SHOWN IN THE ADVISORY MIGHT BE GENEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS
OF COLIN.  AT THIS TIME...BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...WIND
FIELD...AND REASONABLE UNCERTAINTIES...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/0900Z 14.0N  47.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 15.1N  50.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 16.8N  54.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 18.6N  58.3W    50 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 20.6N  61.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 24.5N  66.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     07/0600Z 28.0N  68.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     08/0600Z 31.0N  69.5W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Groomlakearea51]

And the pictures!!!

[Groomlakearea51]

.

[Groomlakearea51]

..

[Groomlakearea51]

...

[Mallette]

Interesting looking little patch off the north coast of VZ...

Dave

[Dflip]

Colin is not as organized this morning and the wind speeds have been decreased. Colin is tracking a bit further to the west than before, but still projected to be off the North Carolina coast.There is another small system, off of the coast of Venezuela which has a 20% chance of producing a more tropical storm. Behind Colin, there continues to be a continual series of waves.

1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

COLIN HAS A VERY RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS MORNING.  THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING SEEN EARLIER HAS WEAKENED...LEAVING A SMALL CONVECTIVE MASS
NEAR THE CENTER AND A SECOND CONVECTIVE MASS TO THE NORTH. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM
SAB...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IT IS HARD TO FIND WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW
CLOUD MOTIONS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...AND THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER COLIN STILL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION.

THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION
MAY BE EVEN FASTER.  COLIN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW/
MID-LEVEL BERMUDA HIGH...AND IN 48-72 HR SHOULD BE APPROACHING A
WEAKNESS OR BREAK IN THE HIGH CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN
SHOULD INITIALLY STEER COLIN RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AFTER 48 HR.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACKS
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST AN
EAST OF NORTH MOTION ON THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BY
120 HR...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFDN ARE ON THE LEFT EDGE WITH NO
NORTHWARD TURN BEFORE 120 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED
60-90 N MI TO THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION.  IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND LIES TO THE
LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

CURRENTLY...COLIN IS EXPERIENCING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR LIKELY
CAUSED BY THE LOWER PART OF THE STORM OUTRUNNING THE UPPER PART. 
THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR DUE TO THE RAPID
MOTION.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CAUSED BY THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH.  THIS PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...AND THE ONLY INTENSITY GUIDANCE THAT
CURRENTLY CALLS FOR COLIN TO BECOME A HURRICANE IS CLIMATOLOGY/
PERSISTENCE.  GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS AND THE FORECAST SHEAR...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
WITH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AN
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT COLIN COULD DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN WAVE
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ITS RAPID MOTION AND WESTERLY SHEAR.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF COLIN. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/1500Z 14.2N  49.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 15.0N  52.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 16.5N  56.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 18.3N  60.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 20.2N  63.7W    45 KT
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 23.0N  67.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 26.5N  69.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     08/1200Z 29.0N  70.5W    50 KT

[Dflip]

Colin is winding down a bit, although the projections have it still close enough to the coast. Not likely to be anything major, but there is some discussion as to what it becomes as it passes west of Bermuda. The other system is likely to produce some rain, but it's southern edge keeps going over land, so it will have difficulty intensifing.

800 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL STORM COLIN WHICH HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THE REMNANTS
OF COLIN WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE REGENERATION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. 

1. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[Dflip]

Colin appears to have lost it's strength.

200 AM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS ISLANDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  

2. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.  SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Mallette]

Those two off SA are both "in the chute." Bear watching... Thanks for the updates, gentlemen.

Dave

[Groomlakearea51]

Although getting weaker, they are still watching where colin may go.

[Groomlakearea51]

A nice view of the the "chute" off Africa as it extends across. Wave after wave....

[Dflip]

 Nothing has changed at the moment. 

Not visible on the National Hurricane Center, but visible on Stormpulse.com (turn the cloud option on), there is a weakly formed circulation just north and east 

of Cape Verde. There is another closely grouped clouds just to the west of it. Worth keeping an eye on as mid August approaches.

200 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN INDICATE THAT

THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...

THE AIRCRAFT FOUND WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE IN THE

NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE

CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW

CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20

TO 25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND

VIRGIN ISLANDS ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

2. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND

SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.

THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST

SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20

MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING

A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Dflip]

 Colin is trying to make itself a bit stronger. 

800 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE

REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER

ORGANIZED BUT THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. TROPICAL

STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL TO THE

NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE

NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM HAS THE

POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A

MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN

COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT BECOME ANY

BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SOME DEVELOPMENT

IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE WAVE BEGINS TO

INTERACT WITH CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20

PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Dflip]

200 AM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...A BROAD AREA OF LOW

PRESSURE...IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE

NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT

20 TO 25 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD

PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT SURFACE

OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL TO

THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL

WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM

HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS LATER TODAY OR ON

FRIDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS

SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY. THERE

IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF

THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT

MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...

OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48

HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[Dflip]

 Colin may be reforming and it's slowed down it's forward speed a bit, although it's still moving very quickly for hurricane formation.

A tropical storm is quite possible. 

800 AM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...A LOW PRESSURE AREA...IS

LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SATELLITE

IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED

THIS MORNING. WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT LACKS A

WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY

OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SLOW

DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS

LATER TODAY OR ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO

INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50

PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA

CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT

DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A LOW

CHANCE...10 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Dflip]

Colin looks like it's reforming, but I haven't seen any of the current tracking. It appears to be following the same route as projected earlier, or at least close to it. Hopefully it will turn out to see, but it may leave some rain on the coast of North Carolina.

Keep an eye on what is following behind as they are further to the south and look like they might produce something.

200 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...A LOW PRESSURE AREA...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 20 MPH.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED...AND AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO DETERMINE
WHETHER IT HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM. 
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  INTERESTS IN BERMUDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

2. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL. 
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Dflip]

Colin is back, but it's mostly going north. Lots of clouds off of Africa, but they are a bit disorganized at the moment, but that doesn't mean that they can't reform into something more substantial.

730 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010

...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO PRIMARILY UPDATE THE
INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECASTS.

SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM COLIN
REPORTED A 600-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 71 KT ABOUT 14 NMI NORTHEAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1005
MB WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF
THESE VALUES WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL MESOVORTEX LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
LARGER-SCALE WIND FIELD. FOR THIS REASON...THE INTENSITY WAS
INITIALIZED AT 40 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH NEARBY SFMR WINDS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE TIME OF THAT RECON REPORT...DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF COLIN HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP CLOSER
TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH JUSTIFIES INCREASING
THE INTENSITY TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS. SINCE A FORECAST INTENSITY OF 50 KT WAS NOT
EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL 48 HOURS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A
SPECIAL ADVISORY WAS REQUIRED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY AND TO
ADJUST THE INTENSITY FORECAST UPWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ALSO...DROPSONDE DATA INDICATES AN EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND
RADII IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WAS NECESSARY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING
WERE MADE.

INTERNET PROBLEMS WILL PREVENT THE NHC WEB SITE FROM BEING UPDATED
AT THIS TIME.  PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV FOR ADVISORY TEXT PRODUCTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/2330Z 25.6N  66.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 26.6N  67.1W    50 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 28.1N  67.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 29.6N  67.3W    50 KT
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 31.3N  67.1W    55 KT
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 36.0N  65.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 40.0N  61.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     10/1800Z 49.0N  48.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN

[Groomlakearea51]

Another nice graphic....