Global Warming. Is the hype coming to an end?

[Mallette]

Will a consumer be able to sue the manufacturer if the car malfunctions and injury or death occurs?

 

As I am convinced it will be illegal to interfere with an autonomous vehicle that is what I believe.  There will be the attempts to sue the manufacturers and certainly for some time there will be an occasional issue...though the current experiments suggest very, very few.   I am not a prophet and the details are not part of my general thinking on what is going to happen.  But logic suggests the manufacturers will find that with the human factor removed there are a lot less lawsuits.  I didn't research this, but I don't think lawsuits against passenger aircraft builders are a huge risk for them as the constantly increasing computer controls and refined systems coming from billions of hours of operation have resulted in a very small chance a jury is going to find them guilty of lack of due diligence. 

 

Bear in mind the only accident to date with the current Google car was caused by human interference.  Production systems will, like your phone, PC, your HT receiver, and a growing list of other things, be upgradable through the cloud.  The system as a whole will be a massive feedback system and learn as it goes. 

 

Your thoughts on owning one are grounded in the past.  People change much more rapidly than you give them credit for.  Why would you want to own one?  The cost would be many times greater than simply summoning one when required.  What it is going to look like I don't know, as again, I am not a prophet just a guy who tries to look at technology without any past baggage.  However, early "pools" may well grow out of innovators like the Uber people.  You pay a subscription, perhaps one escalating based on a guaranteed response time.  The highest rate might well involve one stationed at your garage but when you are sleeping, or on the job, used by the fleet.  If a situation occurs where you have a sudden unscheduled need for a vehicle you'd be guaranteed one in 5 minutes.  Next tier, a lot cheaper, would be no car stationed but 5 minutes response time.  A lot of plans tailored to individual needs and budgets can be imagined.  But all of them would be much less than the cost of owning a car today.  With so many of us living in cities I think the majority of these will be electric.  It would make sense (though we don't always show a lot of that) if a single form factor battery was developed for all manufacturers.  That would allow for completely automated battery change out at strategically place stations.  Given they are "smart," the vehicles would know precisely when to head for a station and a 2 minute change of battery. 

 

None of the above is Buck Rogers.  It is all based on proven technology and common sense.  The is a profit opportunity here that will rival any new technology since the introduction of the automobile itself.  That total societal and paradigm shift required only about 20 years to turn this nation from total reliance on the horse to a nation on wheels.  That historic even also offers proof that even something ingrained in humans since the dawn of civilization, our relationship with the horse, can be completely eliminated in a couple of decades.

 

While I said elsewhere that capitalism is on course to eliminate itself in the next 100 years or so, the pursuit of profit remains a fundamental driver of robber barons and working people alike.  The economic advantages of just being able to stop building more freeways alone is mind boggling and attempting to calculate the combined savings from a 99% or greater decline in deaths and injuries, an 80% or more increase in productive time from time saved in commutes (remember, the speed limits and stop lights will simply go away as these vehicles will have no need for them), untold billions saved on fuel, crikey...it goes on and on.  The internet put a big dent in it, but the box stores of all kinds including groceries will be transformed entirely in this model. 

 

Let me add something unrelated technologically, but a sure bet on the transformation of the big box and other stores:  HoloLens, Magic Leap, and others to come.  Again, proven technology with transformative possibilities.  I won't describe them...run them yourselves if you are interested.  The STNG HoloDeck was a great vision...but they had the technology wrong.  These lightweight helmets allow augmented reality from simply having a small dinosaur running around your house to allowing you to browse the aisles at the grocery store.  If you really wish to stay in the past, just get a cart and fill it with the familiar brands.  Instant check out back to your sofa and the groceries are delivered within an hour.  Now, the sex potential of these devices alone will cause their rapid spread, but the potential in an almost infinite number of areas of business, social activities, and pleasure is extraordinary.  Hololens is to be released by the end of this year.  While I'd been predicting that OLED would, within a decade, cover your wall and so dirt cheap, I am not sure that augmented reality devices may not simply eliminate all "TV" like devices.  HoloLens can make ANYTHING a screen from a book to a wall.  More so, the actors will be in the room with you and you'll be able to walk around them...just as a small note this means writers will be forced to think much deeper about how they write a story.  Having that gun tucked "out of sight" in the belt behind the perp isn't going to work if you can walk back there and see it. 

 

I often think that my generation is so dazed by the changes of the past 50 years that most simply want it to stop, at least for a moment.  Not only isn't it stopping the pace of acceleration is breathtaking. 

 

Dave

[Mallette]

People even name their cars, like pets. it's a symbol of freedom, excitement, status, entertainment, travel and more. I challenge the idea that one day we will wake up and turn all that off in favor of automated transportation bots. That prediction might look right from a technology view, but it looks dead wrong psychologically and culturally.

 

You would have written that about the horse in 1904 or so, Mark.  It's not sound logic. People aren't going to pay 10 times the price to drive a vehicle and a 1:112 risk of dying in a car wreck as opposed to 1:8,000 odds That's estimated based on data to date extrapolated from autonomous vehicle tests.  In fact it's extrapolated as there've been no failures that would result in injury or death at all so far.  Society will not support people creating unpredictable havoc on the roadways just to let somebody drive thier ego around.  It's completely silly logic.

 

I stated above that the human relationship with the horse was profound, ancient, and gone in 20 years.  That's a fact and it is relevant to your above statement.

 

You aren't allowed ride a horse on the freeway or city streets, and you won't be allowed to operate a dangerous attic that poses a completely unacceptable risk to the public.  THINK. 

 

There are plenty of places to ride a horse today, and there will be plenty of places for risk takers to put the petal to the metal.  Appropriate places where they only endanger themselves.

 

Dave

Edited February 14, 2015 by Mallette

[Mallette]

It's an economic imperative, and that is very American. 

 

Dave

[Travis In Austin]

It's an economic imperative, and that is very American.

Dave

Except GM and Exxon have to be on board, they are not going to look at it and walk away.

The guy with the horse who bought a Model T owned the car.

Safety has NEVER been a primary motivating force in the selection of automobiles. For some it is, and they buy Volvos.

What you are envisioning I am 100% for, and want it now. If I understand, when I need to go to work or the store I get on my phone and punch in where I am, where I am going, and when and when it is time to leave I go outside and an automated vehicle is waiting for me. I hop in, I don't touch a thing and it takes me where I need to go. I assume the rates are at or below what it would cost to own and operate a vehicle. I'm also assuming a family who wants a larger to go on family vacation to Disneyland cross country can order a bigger car and pay higher rates if they choose.

I want it now, and I want will all electric cars for local, and hybrids for long distance.

Of course what this is clearly nationalization of ground transportation. That's socialism Dave, and for some reason we have never been able to get on board with that outside of war time. Even then, they wouldn't let em takes over the steel plants.

The only thing I am aware of in this country is the post office (it is in the Constitution so it is pretty much requured), and Amtrak.

Or do we adopt a national protocol and let private sector compete against each other to drive down rates. Of course if Google car is patented they have monopoly for next 15 years.

A car I didn't need to operate, no steering wheel, no brakes, just an emergency button, I want now, today. A statewide or national mandate they be used is a long time in the making.

A model where you no longer have a car, where the government or utility owns the vehicle, is going to be a pretty tough sell. I think you can get us city dwellers on board easy enough, but try to sell that in Tyler, TX, or Billings, Montana, or rural America and you are going to have a tough sell. They still ride horses there.

A model you suggest would have an added benefit of having a significant reduction in crime. Anyone using a vehicle in crime would be traceable. In order to have any chance of commiting a crime it would have to be done on foot. Biometrics could be required to utilize the vehicles. If someone with a warrant gets in one the doors lock and fugitive is driven to jail.

The government would also know who is going where at all times. Who is working, when, where. Where you shop, where you eat. It wouldn't bother me, I'm not a criminal and I could care less if anyone else knows when or where I go.

I hope they sell America on it quick, I have a feeling there are a few minor issues to get sorted out aside from the technology.

Travis

[Mallette]

Well, Travis, this won't be the first time I've been wrong.  But no matter how many times I look at the evidence it turns out pretty much the same way.  The social and economic imperatives are overwhelming.  Exxon probably doesn't really think about it much, and Detroit stands the gain massively in a similar way that the TV makers did from the switch from analog to digital TV and from SD to HD.  They gotta love the prospect if millions of obsolete vehicles being replaced. 

 

I made an attempt during this post of trying to get a sense of projected highway and transportation projections for the next 10 years.  I gave up.  It's massive...and 90 percent of it unnecessary if people insist on accelerating this technology.  The most conservative estimates for autonomous-only freeways says they' have 5 times the existing capacity.  Speeds would be determined only by the vehicle's engineering but 100mph right away is reasonable since most cars can do that today...though, of course, it would be suicidal in Houston.  If there is an issue that yours and others pushback on this it's that I keep looking deeper to make sure I am not missing something and keep coming up with things I am, in fact, missing.  And all is more evidence that this change will come, and will come perhaps even more rapidly than my timelines.

 

Forget the 58,000 dead, 600,000 injured or disable, trillions in unneeded highways, high speed rail, and ridiculous up and down airplane trips (like DFW to Houston), massive reduction in operating costs by using electric cars in urban areas, 20 percent improvement in productivity or free time from reduced travel times and ability to work while being transported...the profit motive of issues I haven't mentioned would still drive this.

 

MADD was a potent force for change, but that is nothing compared to the push that will come from mothers who may use a slogan like "Only a fool would give a loaded revolver to an idiot" to push for the end to allowing human "control" of vehicles and its human cost alone.  I remember the first time I saw a car one of my high school classmates died in.  His blood and brains were still in the floorboard from having hit a tree at 90 mph or so.  It ended the "romance" of driving for me as I could not then nor can I now figure out how we've somehow allowed necessity to overcome common sense and accept this carnage as mere collateral damage.

 

I've seen so many roadside tragedies since then I cannot enumerate them.  Like the ER doctors we've simply learned to turn off the horror and think "Well, at least it wasn't me."

 

I'll put it this way:  Forget ALL the economic incentives and simply focus on the return to sanity that will come from people observing others no longer traveling in fear or sitting at home wondering if their children, husbands, or friends are going to make it home.  Unless humans have lost all their survival instinct we'll gladly give up this game of Russian roulette we've grown accustomed to. 

 

Dave

[Mallette]

News in this area comes fast and is accelerating.  There've been several since we last visited this subject but one sticks out big time:  The Apple Car. 

 

There are many saying "What are they THINKING?"  So am I, but a look at their past suggests they are certainly thinking.  Building a car is a seriously risky and expensive undertaking even for the biggest company on the planet, so one may assume that "me, too" isn't part of their plan.  If not, what? 

 

My belief:  A totally autonomous vehicle incorporating the innovative (not including autonomous in "innovative" as Google has been there, done that) genius that causes the Apple head to stand in line and buy ANYTHING with the Apple name on it and others who may not own anything Apple to follow them.  Of course, the autonomy will be disabled in states where it is illegal, but a bit more innovative thinking suggests it may well be enabled by GPS location, which will also apply speed limits and such. 

 

Currently, Nevada, Florida, Michigan, California, and DC allow certified autonomous vehicles on public roads.  With thousands of Apple heads screaming bloody murder when their car tells them the must drive manually as they are reaching the state line the changes I've suggested will happen faster than I anticipate. 

 

I have never been a big Apple fan and own not a single Apple product.  This may change in a few years.   

 

Dave

[Guest Steven1963]

Automation will require less physical ability, But more mental ability.

 

Did I understand these were going to go to the poor and elderly also?

 

Danger, Will Robinson, Danger!

[Guest Steven1963]

I can see automated cars being connected to the internet, using an array of sensors both on the vehicle and from GPS to navigate right to a parking spot. Real time data could be fed to the vehicle for roadwork, accidents, everything.  The time has come and the lives saved will be in the thousands every year. The amount of time we spend in traffic jams will also be cut down, as vehicle speeds are adjusted to account for merging traffic and cars talking to each other in the immediate vicinity. I think this will revolutionize the way we move around our cities and countries on a scale we can't even imagine yet. But it will take as much time to implement as did the internet when it first came out. So 20 years or so before everyone is using it as a vital piece of their daily lives.

 

My biggest concern is hackers.

[Mallette]

My biggest concern is hackers.

 

Hacking the GPS system is unlikely.  I rather doubt the vehicles will auto update and incoming internet is certainly to be hard firewalled from the control systems.  I am certain that it isn't just DOD that has learned how to protect vital systems. 

 

Dave

[Guest Steven1963]

I just got back this afternoon from the Dr. George Car Show in Indian Wells. 85F degrees, sunshine and good fun for a Saturday morning. Not only are there 600 cars on display, but there are a tonload of car lovers that come to see it. And car lovers is what I wanted to mention. Cars are symbolic artifacts, not just means of transportation. People even name their cars, like pets. it's a symbol of freedom, excitement, status, entertainment, travel and more. I challenge the idea that one day we will wake up and turn all that off in favor of automated transportation bots. That prediction might look right from a technology view, but it looks dead wrong psychologically and culturally.

 

Red Barchetta....Rush

[Mallette]

"Google and Uber are already making big bets on autonomous cars becoming robo-taxis to allow urban dwellers to get around without ever owning a car."  That's from a PC Magazine web site article called "Why an Apple Car Makes Sense." 

 

Sheesh, I get no respect.  Didn't I mention Uber a few pages back as already having the business model for autonomous vehicles?  If there is a problem, it's that the speed of development and announcements are increasing to the point predictions are almost pointless.  The morning paper had a prominent story "The Center for Auto Safety, along with several other traffic safety advocates, are petitioning the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to require such collision avoidance technology be installed in all large trucks and buses."

 

Duh.  And you KNOW the trucking companies are drooling at the prospect of getting rid of those sleep-deprived, amphetamine-crazed drivers.  

 

Driving into work this morning it really struck me how MOST of the space on the freeway was necessary not for the number of cars, but because the drivers are idiots and cannot be trusted to do anything rational. 

 

Dave

 

 

[Jeff Matthews]

"Google and Uber are already making big bets on autonomous cars becoming robo-taxis to allow urban dwellers to get around without ever owning a car."  That's from a PC Magazine web site article called "Why an Apple Car Makes Sense." 

 

Sheesh, I get no respect.  Didn't I mention Uber a few pages back as already having the business model for autonomous vehicles?  If there is a problem, it's that the speed of development and announcements are increasing to the point predictions are almost pointless.  The morning paper had a prominent story "The Center for Auto Safety, along with several other traffic safety advocates, are petitioning the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to require such collision avoidance technology be installed in all large trucks and buses."

 

Duh.  And you KNOW the trucking companies are drooling at the prospect of getting rid of those sleep-deprived, amphetamine-crazed drivers.  

 

Driving into work this morning it really struck me how MOST of the space on the freeway was necessary not for the number of cars, but because the drivers are idiots and cannot be trusted to do anything rational. 

 

Dave

 

 

Brilliant on all accounts! Granted, it was not my idea, but you have convinced me.  That is the direction we are headed.

Edited February 23, 2015 by Jeff Matthews

[DizRotus]

This should be a dedicated thread, but you're correct Dave. Most drivers are idiots.

Think about it. What causes traffic jams? The answer is bad driving.

The anatomy of a traffic jam is drivers slowing to change lanes. By doing so, it becomes more difficult to merge into the desired lane, as the traffic in that lane is now moving even faster. The situation is exacerbated when the drivers in the lane being abandoned get exasperated and change into the lane into which the numbskull wants to go. Absent an accident, construction, etc., rush hour traffic jams are caused by those who wait to the last possible second and the force their way into a different lane.

Instead, plan ahead and accelerate to an open space in the lane you want to get into. The same morons who try to merge onto an expressway doing 50 mph are also slowing down to change lanes. Also, aggressive anti-social drivers speed in the left lanes until the last possible second before cutting someone off to exit.

What is a NASCAR race if not rush hour traffic. NASCAR drivers accelerate to change lanes. They can tailgate because they can predict what the other drivers will do. On the public roads we can predict the other driver will do something stupid, inconsiderate, or both.

In Europe (except UK) drivers keep to the right except while actually overtaking slower traffic. When putzing along at 80 mph in a rented Opal, it's wise to check the mirrors prior to moving to the left lane to pass. By doing so you'll see the Ferrari, MB, BMW or the like that's doing 120 mph, closing at a 40 mph differential.

George Carlin had a bit about driving. Everyone going slower than you is a moron. Everyone driving faster than you is a maniac.

Edited February 23, 2015 by DizRotus

[Mallette]

Even if every human was NASCAR trained and defensive driving qualified, the best we could do would not remotely ensure the level of safety, efficiency and speed autonomous vehicle will bring. Lane changing will occur only when a vehicle needs to exit and all the rest will do what NEVER happens now...make room smoothly and without changing speed. 

 

As for me, Diz, I've been a "drive right" person ever since I read about why the autobahn works.  I wish Texas would seriously enforce the "left lane for passing only" laws we have even at the expense of letting speeders go. 

 

Dave

[Gilbert]

I've been skeptical of the global warming believers since the start.  Especially those proclaiming it is man-made.  It seems now the news media is starting to cool (no pun intended) to the assertions.  Which is good.  I think we need more sanity brought into this debate.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/globalwarming/11395516/The-fiddling-with-temperature-data-is-the-biggest-science-scandal-ever.html

 

 

All is well, those 2 polar bears made it to land.

[Gilbert]

Even if every human was NASCAR trained

 

Eeeeek!!!!  If every driver was NASCAR trained there would be fist fights and throw downs every time someone got honked at, every time there was a fender bender, every time someone snatched up a parking spot in front of someone else was just getting ready to park there too, every time some one took too long at the toll booth, every time some one took the last pump at the gas station, every time some one was texting and holding up traffic at the traffic light, every time some one decided to take two parking spaces instead of the one, etc. etc. etc.

 

NASCAR, bad comparo Dave,..... just awful.

Edited February 23, 2015 by Gilbert

[Mallette]

May father in law was NASCAR trained at Daytona.  His job is testing consumer cars.  They did not pay for that training to make him a racer but to be the safest guy on the road when testing a million dollars worth of Rolls Royce hand built prototype.

 

Dave

[Mallette]

But for the other 95%, I don't yet see the demand from the car buyer. I don't know any car buyers clamoring for autonomous. I think some work will have to be done on developing this market.

 

So, you don't think the public is smart enough to see the advantage in reducing their chance of death or injury by 98%?  While only one of the benefits, that one ranks pretty high to me.  I said earlier that I rather hoped autonomous or near autonomous cars are available within 5 years when it's time to equip my son with a car.  While the tradition has been to purchase good used cars for this purposed it's hard for me to imagine a parent not buying the greatest safety possible for their children.

 

Imagine the guilt from avoidable tragedy...

 

Dave

[Mallette]

AAMOF, I recall back in the 70s when the mandate for airbags came out it was said nobody would pay the extra 375.00 they were estimated to cost.   

 

Most are not comfortable in a car without them now and certainly wouldn't put their kids in one.  I know I wouldn't. 

 

Dave

[Travis In Austin]

"Google and Uber are already making big bets on autonomous cars becoming robo-taxis to allow urban dwellers to get around without ever owning a car."  That's from a PC Magazine web site article called "Why an Apple Car Makes Sense." 

 

Sheesh, I get no respect.  Didn't I mention Uber a few pages back as already having the business model for autonomous vehicles?  If there is a problem, it's that the speed of development and announcements are increasing to the point predictions are almost pointless.  The morning paper had a prominent story "The Center for Auto Safety, along with several other traffic safety advocates, are petitioning the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to require such collision avoidance technology be installed in all large trucks and buses."

 

Duh.  And you KNOW the trucking companies are drooling at the prospect of getting rid of those sleep-deprived, amphetamine-crazed drivers.  

 

Driving into work this morning it really struck me how MOST of the space on the freeway was necessary not for the number of cars, but because the drivers are idiots and cannot be trusted to do anything rational. 

 

Dave

 

 

 

"Duh.  And you KNOW the trucking companies are drooling at the prospect of getting rid of those sleep-deprived, amphetamine-crazed drivers."  

 

That might be, but I suspect that is WAY further down the road than autonomous passenger vehicles down the road.  The Teamsters will have something to say about that, and the Longshoremen, and the people who receive the deliveries.  There is also an issue of common carrier liability that would have to get straightened out before that happens.  

 

They first need to implement a local model, get it working and without accidents or incidents.  As I stated in an earlier post, DOT has already issued regulations and standards for autonomous vehicles with 4 or 5 levels.  The first level is active cruise control, all the way up to a truly autonomous vehicle.  I am sure the regulations will become more and more detailed as things get closer to a reality.  There is going to be a difficult balance with that as well, the right amount of regulation.

 

Travis