End of Hurricane Season - 2007

[Groomlakearea51]

Remember from Katrina and a few others, if it hits a high 4 or 5 level, expect a huge storm surge to come with it. The winds might die down to a 3, but the storm surge is the largest killer and destructor with hurricanes. The surge does not die down to the same level as the winds above.

Yes, especially the coastal areas. We are 35 miles inland, but during Francis and Jeanne in September of 2004, the storm surge on the Lake was almost 8 feet. It floated all of the docks and boats in the main marina up into the main parking lot. Flooded my building's boat bays up to about and inch from the office door. It was after that little disaster that the Corps of Engineers and Water Management decided leaving Lake Okeechobee at an artificially high level to provide a reservoir for the residents of the coastal counties (to be able to water their grass.....) was too dangerous.

In regards to the little "last minute" jogs left or right along a track path. Oh well... It happens.... It's the difference between lost roof shingles and a lost roof for many folks. A distance of only 10 miles can have a radical effect on the damage. Unless it's missing me by about 100 miles, I'm very, very uncomfortable....

[Deang]

Yeesh, they named it 'Dean' -- not likely to do much of anything unless they agitate it.

[Groomlakearea51]

TS-DEAN Update for 11:00 AM, 15 July 2007; Extract from NHC Discussion:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...275/17. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE LIES TO THE NORTH OF DEAN AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL-ESTABLISHED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NUMERICAL TRACK FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL MAINTAIN THE SAME GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEYOND THREE DAYS...THE FATE OF THE STORM WILL BE PARTIALLY CONTROLLED BY A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF INTO A LOW AND HEAD WESTWARD UNDER A BUILDING SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES HIGH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW REMAINING FARTHER AWAY FROM DEAN WITH STRONGER
RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN THE LONG-RANGE..AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST.

STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE THE BEST BET AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT BY ALL MODELS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE STORM START TO RISE. THE ONLY NEGATING FACTOR TO INTENSIFICATION MIGHT BE THE ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEAN WILL BE A HURRICANE BEFORE IT ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS MODELS ALL FORECAST DEAN TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAY 5...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 12.4N 46.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 12.7N 48.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 13.1N 52.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 13.7N 55.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 14.2N 59.2W 75 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 66.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 72.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 18.0N 78.0W 105 KT (120 miles per hour)

[Groomlakearea51]

TS-DEAN "CONE OF DEATH" Update for 11:00 AM, 15 July 2007; Hope nobody is going to Jamaica next week.....

[Groomlakearea51]

TS-Erin; Well, the "talking heads" are all over this now.... Real News: It's gonna be a rainmaker!!! Here's the track paths (it can always shift around at the last minute)

[Groomlakearea51]

TS-Erin: "Cone of Wet Misery"

[Groomlakearea51]

Can someone who lives in the "cone of misery" perhaps give some feedback and maybe post a picture tomorrow as Erin meanders across the coastline? That would be great, and give some of the members an idea of what these storms look like.

[Groomlakearea51]

Where do we stand now?

The 2007 outlook calls for a likely range of 13-16 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

Well... we're almost a 1/3 of the way through the "named storms" predictions, but the most active months are August through October. The worst month, for Florida at least, is September.

Hurricane seasons during 1995-2006 have averaged 14.4 named storms, 8.2 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. NOAA classifies nine of the last twelve hurricane seasons as above normal, with seven being hyperactive. Only three seasons since 1995 have not been above normal. These are the El Niño years of 1997, 2002, and 2006.

[CECAA850]

TS-DEAN "CONE OF DEATH" Update for 11:00 AM, 15 July 2007; Hope nobody is going to Jamaica next week.....

Ixnay on the onekay of ethday

[BigStewMan]

i hope all of you in the danger zones will come through the season unscathed. technically, i've been in one hurricane--hurricane gloria back in 1985. i was at a coast guard school in yorktown, va--i slept through the hurricane. i recently went through a force 11 cyclone in the pacific while on my way to hawaii. the wind can be a very powerful force. take precautions! now i live in the land of shake & bake--earthquakes & fires.

[dtel's wife]

Thanks BigStewMan....it's really appreciated! and...we need all the well wishes we can get down this way!

[Klipsched with Yamahas]

Stewman, you know it.......I wouldn't want to be on SAR (search and rescue) in that mess! Semper Paratus!

I remember Agnes back in '72, came up the Chesapeake Bay and took out a slew-full of boats when I was working at a Marina during my youth. Several owners FORGOT to slacken their lines, and you guessed it......I found myself in the bathwater of the Chesapeake salvaging.

And that was only a Cat 1. Best wishes to those in Harm's Way.

[Groomlakearea51]

Hurricane Dean: Continues to strengthen, but the track paths seem to remain clustered towards the Yucatan. If it continues along that route, while unfortunate for the people who live there, it will be headed for a relatively sparsely populated area. Per the National Hurricane Center:

DEAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES OF AN EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO DEAN IS UPGRADED TO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2007 HURRICANE SEASON. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS BUILDING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ASIDE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF FLORIDA...AND SHOULD THIS HAPPEN THAT SYSTEM WOULD HAVE LITTLE INTERACTION WITH DEAN. THE PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP DEAN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN FIVE DAYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE....AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE TO KEEP DEAN FROM STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH 115 KT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE THE EXPERIMENTAL LGE MODEL IS CALLING FOR 127 KT. THE GFDL CALLS FOR DEAN TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH ODDLY ENOUGH IT CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE FIRST 60 HR OF THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD FOR THE FIRST 96 HR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING DEAN THIS AFTERNOON..AND THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV WILL CONDUCT A SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR THE 17 JULY ANALYSIS CYCLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0900Z 13.4N 52.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 13.9N 55.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 14.4N 59.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 14.9N 63.0W 90 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 15.4N 66.5W 100 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 16.5N 73.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 80.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 20.0N 87.5W 115 KT (132 MILES PER HOUR)

[Groomlakearea51]

Hurricane Dean's "Cone of Death":

[Groomlakearea51]

TS Erin: Fortunately, it looks like the high pressure area in central north Texas will send this west rather than curving up and dumping more un-needed rain. Here's their "cryptic" report:

HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES HAVE BEEN INLAND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN
TAPPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ERIN REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. NOAA BUOY 42019 RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 32 KT AND VELOCITY DATA FROM THE CORPUS CHRISTI WSR88D INDICATE WINDS IN THE 35 KT RANGE ABOVE THE SURFACE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED AT 35 KT. WHILE THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...ERIN STILL HAS 6-12 MORE HOURS OVER WATER SO SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ERIN HAS BEEN WOBBLING A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT A LONGER TERM MOTION YIELDS AND INITIAL ESTIMATE OF 300/10. A CONTINUATION OF THIS BASIC MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH THE TRACK CONTROLLED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 27.3N 96.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 28.0N 98.1W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 17/0600Z 28.8N 99.9W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/1800Z 29.5N 101.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[Groomlakearea51]

TS Erin's "Cone of Torrential Rain...":

[Groomlakearea51]

HURRICANE DEAN - Forum Members along the Gulf Coast need to really watch this:

DEAN IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. THE HURRICANE HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CLOUD-FILLED EYE THIS MORNING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN THE EYE OF DEAN LATER TODAY TO OBTAIN A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE SHOULD CONTROL DEAN'S MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD FORCE THE HURRICANE ON A SPEEDY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEAN WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ATTEMPT TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL. IT IS STALLING A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS...IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE HURRICANE TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT 120 HR IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL FORECAST.

ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AROUND DEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP WARM WATER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/1500Z 13.7N 54.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.1N 57.4W 90 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 14.6N 61.4W 95 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.1N 64.9W 100 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.6N 68.4W 105 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W 120 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 80 KT...INLAND (PASSING THROUGH YUCATAN INTO GULF OF MEXICO)

[Groomlakearea51]

H-DEAN CONE OF DEATH GRAPHIC AS OF 1100 EDT:

[Groomlakearea51]

This thing's going to turn into a monster.....

Off to an Emergency Management Meeting (in case it turns around on us in Florida like Wilma did).

Most interesting will be the report back this evening from the Air Force Recon Squadron flight that's going into the eye this afternoon.

[CECAA850]

Keep up the good work. Most informative.