End of Hurricane Season - 2007

[dtel's wife]

Dflip,

I love those smilies! I don't know which I like better....the snorkeling one or the one hanging on the flag pole. I LMAO when I saw the one hanging onto the pole.....

[Dflip]

I was trying to keep the response on the lighter side.

It's a good thing that Mike does ask for directions,

[Groomlakearea51]

Maybe if Groom gets some time he can post some facts about damage in the different quadrants of these monsters?????

the "right side of the storm" is with respect to the storm's COUNTER CLOCKWISE motion: if the hurricane is moving to the west, the right side would be to the north of the storm; if the hurricane is moving to the north, the right side would be to the east of the storm, etc.

In general, the strongest winds in a hurricane are found on the right side of the storm because the motion of the hurricane also contributes to its swirling winds. A hurricane with a 90 mph winds while stationary would have winds up to 100 mph on the right side and only 80 mph on the left side if it began moving at 10 mph.

So with Dean moving at let's say 15 miles per hour:

150 miles per hour; right side would be 165 miles per hour

150 miles per hour; left side would be 135 miles per hour

[Groomlakearea51]

You would think that a minimal 74 mph hurricane cause one half of the damage that a major hurricane with 148 mph winds? Actually not; the amount of damage (at least experienced along the U.S. mainland) does not increase linearly with the wind speed. Instead, the damage produced increases exponentially with the winds. The 148 mph hurricane (a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) may produce - on average - up to 250 times the damage of a minimal category 1 hurricane!

[Groomlakearea51]

The worst U.S. hurricane damage - after normalizing to today's population, wealth and dollars - is no longer Hurricane Andrew or Katrina, but is instead the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane. If this storm hit now, it is estimated that it would cause over $70 BILLION in South Florida and then an additional $10 BILLION in the Florida panhandle and Alabama.

[Groomlakearea51]

The most powerful hurricane on record?

Typhoon Tip in the Northwest Pacific Ocean on 12 October 1979 was measured to have a central pressure of 870 mb and estimated surface sustained winds of 165 kt, 190 mph. Typhoon Nancy on 12 September, 1961 had an estimated maximum sustained wind of 213 mph with a central pressure of 888 mb.

Hurricane Wilma's 882 mb lowest pressure in 2005 is the most intense for the Atlantic basin, it is almost 12 mb weaker (higher) than the above Typhoon Tip of the Northwest Pacific Ocean.

The North Atlantic hurricanes have provided sustained wind speeds possibly comparable to the Northwest Pacific. Hurricane Camille (1969) and Hurricane Allen (1980) have winds that are estimated to be 190 mph. Measurements of such winds are inherently going to be suspect as instruments often are completely destroyed or damaged at these speeds.

[Groomlakearea51]

Which of these monsters got the strongest, the quickest?

Hurricane Wilma in 2005 went from 954 mb to 901 mb in a 5 hour 23 minute period for a 9.8 mb/hr pressure drop. The winds went from 150 mph to 184 mph in that period.

[Groomlakearea51]

The greatest storm surge?

The Bathurst Bay Hurricane, also known as Tropical Cyclone Mahina, struck Bathurst Bay, Australia in 1899. It produced about a 42 ft) surge, but other contemporary accounts place the surge at almost 48 ft. Fish and dolphins were reported found on top of 50 ft cliffs.

[Groomlakearea51]

The costliest huuricanes, so far based on current Using 2005 Inflation, Population, and Wealth Normalization. etc.

I live in Florida... I must be a fool for this!!! Florida hits in bold [:|]

RANK

HURRICANE

YEAR

Category

Adjusted Damage (Millions)

1

SE FL/MS/AL

1926

4

$ 157,000

2

N TX (Galveston)

1900

4

99,400

3

KATRINA (LA)

2005

3

81,000

4

N TX (Galveston)

1915

4

^* 68,000

5

ANDREW (SE FL/SE LA)

1992

5

55,800

6

New England

1938

3

39,200

7

SW FL

1944

3

38,700

8

SE FL

1928

4

33,600

9

DONNA (FL/Eastern U.S.)

1960

4

26,800

10

CAMILLE (MS/SE LA/VA)

1969

5

21,200

11

WILMA (SW FL)

2005

3

20,600

12

BETSY (SE FL/SE LA)

1965

3

17,900

13

DIANE (NE U.S.)

1955

1

17,200

14

AGNES (FL/NE U.S.)

1972

1

17,200

15

HAZEL (SC/NC)

1954

4

16,500

16

CHARLEY (SW FL)

2004

4

16,300

17

CAROL (NE U.S.)

1954

3

16,100

18

IVAN (NW FL/AL.)

2004

3

15,500

19

HUGO (SC)

1989

4

15,300

20

SE FL

1949

3

14,700

21

CARLA (N & Central TX)

1961

4

14,200

22

SE FL/LA/AL

1947

4

13,700

23

NE U.S.

1944

3

13,200

24

FL Keys/S TX

1919

4

13,200

25

SE FL

1945

3

12,300

26

FREDERIC (AL/MS)

1979

3

10,300

27

RITA (TX/LA)

2005

3

10,000

28

FRANCES (SE FL)

2004

2

9,700

29

VA

1933

2

8,200

30

DORA (NE FL)

1964

2

7,700^* Damage estimate in 1915 reference is considered too high

---

[dtel's wife]

"It's a good thing that Mike does ask for directions"

Yes it is....I wouldn't want him to head south and end up in Jamaica....[]

[Groomlakearea51]

And if the confusion about who does what in this stuff is not confusing, even Canada has a hurricane website!!!

[Groomlakearea51]

Given that the US Navy has an "extreme" interest in little things that can damage ships.... Here's their forecast graphic. I would place alot of credibility in their track predictions because they have to be "right".

[Groomlakearea51]

CURRENT MILSAT PHOTO:

[Groomlakearea51]

BETTER SHOT WITH THE ACTUAL SATELLITE TRACK PATH:

[Groomlakearea51]

GEOSTATIONARY MILSAT PHOTOGRAPH FROM ABOUT 24K MILES UP:

[dtel's wife]

WTNT44 KNHC 182024
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007

THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF DEAN
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INTO THE EYE MEASURED 930 MB AND THE REPORTED WINDS SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE CREW OBSERVED A
DOUBLE EYEWALL AND THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION IS OUTSTANDING WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE...NUMEROUS
SPIRAL BANDS AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW. WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
SHEAR AND VERY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND YUCATAN...SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. IN
FACT...DEAN COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE AT ANY TIME BEFORE IT REACHES YUCATAN.

THE HURRICANE IS HEADING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OR 285
DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL RUNS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK
OR SPEED THROUGH 5 DAYS...BUT PERHAPS WITH A SLIGHT TURN MORE TO THE
WEST IN A DAY OR SO. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT BRINGS THE
HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES
ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND KEEPS DEAN IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY FOUR. THERE
COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY
RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.[*-)]


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.1N 70.2W 130 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.8N 72.6W 135 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 76.0W 135 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 79.3W 125 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W 140 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 24.5N 101.5W 40 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

I sure hope those folks in southern Texas are paying close attention!

[Dflip]

The latest cone of destruction? It is now scheduled to hit south of Jamaica and a little further south on the Yucatan Pennisula. Certainly good news for Jamaica, but with the width of the hurricane, wider than the island, it still might not be very nice on the north coast. The mountainous island may also help with the storm surge, but flooding is certainly a possiblilty.

Hurricane DEAN

---

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 24

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007

1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007

THE INNER CORE OF DEAN APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING SOME CHANGES. RADAR

IMAGERY ONBOARD THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPICTS

CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS AT RADII OF ABOUT 10 AND 20 N MI...WITH THE

OUTER EYEWALL RECENTLY BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED.

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO REVEALED DOUBLE MAXIMA. WIND DATA AT

FLIGHT LEVEL...FROM THE SFMR...AND FROM DROPSONDES DIRECTLY SUPPORT

AN INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN ABOUT 115 KT. THE CENTRAL

PRESSURE...HOWEVER...HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DROPPING AND WAS MOST

RECENTLY MEASURED AT 918 MB. ASSUMING THAT THE MAXIMUM WIND HAS

NOT BEEN SAMPLED...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT...BUT

THIS COULD BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE. THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE

TO INVESTIGATE DEAN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TO SEE IF THE WINDS COME

BACK UP.

DEAN WOBBLED WESTWARD EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT THE LONGER-TERM

MOTION TOWARD 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 15 KT SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED. AS

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT

WAS EAST OF FLORIDA A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN

GULF OF MEXICO AND HEADED QUICKLY WESTWARD. THAT LOW IS FORECAST TO

BE REPLACED BY A LARGE AND STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN

UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD

REINFORCE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF DEAN...THROUGH THE

NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...OVER SOME PORTION OF THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS HAVE

IN GENERAL SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE GFDL WHICH IS

NO LONGER THE NORTHERN OUTLIER. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN VERY GOOD

AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FIVE-DAY FORECAST

PERIOD...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS INCREASING. THE

OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A TAD TO THE SOUTH AND IS

VERY NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE

DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE...BUT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS QUITE LOW AND

THE INNER CORE COULD QUICKLY REORGANIZE AT ANY TIME...SO ANY DIP IN

THE INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT-LIVED. THROUGHOUT ITS STAY IN

THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...ATMOSPHERIC AND

OCEANIC CONDITIONS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE

INTENSITY AS SUGGESTED BY ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. SINCE THE

NEW TRACK FORECAST RESULTS IN A LONGER STAY OVER THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED

SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT STILL INDICATES

A MAJOR HURRICANE AT FINAL LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.2N 71.7W 125 KT

12HR VT 19/1200Z 16.8N 74.3W 130 KT

24HR VT 20/0000Z 17.6N 77.8W 130 KT

36HR VT 20/1200Z 18.4N 81.4W 135 KT

48HR VT 21/0000Z 19.3N 85.1W 140 KT

72HR VT 22/0000Z 21.0N 92.0W 85 KT

96HR VT 23/0000Z 23.0N 98.0W 100 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 24/0000Z 24.0N 101.0W 30 KT...INLAND

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[Dflip]

As I noted before there is wiggle room as it approaches an area. The shift 5 pm to 11 pm has taken the hurricane south of Jamaica, it will be interesting to see what the next forcast is? Is it still to the south, or is another change in order.

I guess these changes are why some people stay, hoping that the small change will make it an event, instead of a disaster. When the winds are catergory 4, almost 5, it's called get out of Dodge. When they are category 1 to 2, it could be a pain, but an experience to talk about for years. Some people are thrill seekers. I can remember the guy who was in the parking garage in, I believe, Mobile, Alabama during Katrina who wanted to see a hurricane. The water kept rising, but he was relatively safe on the third or fourth floor. He got some great photos and video which he shared with CNN. It certainly made his day. If the garage had flooded to the top or collapsed, he would be another statistic, but he lived to tell about it.

[Groomlakearea51]

The "wiggle" is always there, but really related to the increments on the track paths. Most models do it by 1 or 2 degree increments, but when they also add the plot the radar plots (when it gets near enough), that's when you actually see the "wiggles".

[Groomlakearea51]

Thanks dtel's wife for posting the 5:00 AM stuff!!! [Y]I was really wiped out yesterday and since I knew it was somewhere out there and probably no real changes except for the GFDL track drop continuation, I just spent the evening with my family.

Interestingly, there is another "problem" out there right now. It's a tropical wave that shows "cyclonic" motion. Not good. Florida members need to watch this.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE E PORTION OF THE AREA WITH NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT. THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED AND THE W BAHAMAS THU WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING ON THE W SIDE OF THE WAVE. A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED NEAR 12N45W THAT WAS BETWEEN TWO FORMERLY TRACKED TROPICAL WAVES. BOTH WAVES WERE DROPPED AND A NEW MEDIAN WAVE WAS CREATED. A VERY BROAD ELONGATED AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOW EXTENDS BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 36W-43W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NRN PART OF THE WAVE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 43W-50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 51W-54W.