End of Hurricane Season - 2007

[dtel's wife]

Well now...let's see...that generator is real good idea as long as your roof stays in place next time![] Do you think you may be optimistic about power coming back within in a week in the event of a strong hurricane? We were without power for 2 l/2 weeks after Katrina....luckily...because our power company had told us another four weeks the week before the "lights came back on". Seems they robbed several substations further down the line to fix ours![]

Congratulations on the new purchase!

[Groomlakearea51]

HERE'S THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY:

BAD: 1. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...THE WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

GOOD: 2. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL HAVE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION BEFORE BECOMING OVERTAKEN BY THE FRONT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

NOT GOOD, BUT NOT AFFECTING US: 3. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

MAYBE AND DON'T TRUST THE WEATHER GODS.... 4. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

GOOD AND MAYBE IT WILL GO AWAY... 5. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISORGANIZED NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST HAS DIMINISHED...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

[Groomlakearea51]

And my wife asked, "What does this all mean?"; and I answered. "We'll have a good weekend".......[H]

But, at 15-20 mph, that wave could cause problems in about 6 - 7 days........ Or let's say round' about Wednesday of next week......

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's why.......

[Groomlakearea51]

But the good news (at least as the supercomputers see it)...........

[Groomlakearea51]

And I've got contractors here buiding the "stereo room/Man cave" that I've been saving up for for so long!!!!! All I need is a hurricane!!!![:@]

[dtel's wife]

And my wife asked, "What does this all mean?"; and I answered. "We'll have a good weekend".......[H]

But, at 15-20 mph, that wave could cause problems in about 6 - 7 days........ Or let's say round' about Wednesday of next week......

OOOOKAY! I feel much better now..."we'll have a good weekend"!!!! Sounds like a plan to me.

Groomy, are you going to be updating us over the weekend, or will you need a substitute teacher?

[Dflip]

The newest satelitte photo, System one is progressing slowly, but will receive a better look tomorrow to see what its potential for development is. From Groomakearea's post it looks like it good run through the Caribbean south of most of the population and then turn a bit further north towards the Gulf of Mexico. As he said, the middle of next week before it hits or misses the US.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
480 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY.

2. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTIC
CITY NEW JERSEY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...AND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
EVENING...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE FRONT.

3. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

4. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

5. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST REMAINS
MINIMAL...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[dtel's wife]

Thanks Dflip.

I love the last comment.

[Groomlakearea51]

"ELSEWHERE..... NOT EXPECTED" LOL []

AFTER LOOKING AT THIS MORNING'S STUFF, THERE'S VERY LITTLE "ELSEWHERE" LEFT!!! THERE'S EVEN A SYSTEM ROAMING AROUND OFF THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY.....

HERE'S THE NHC GRAPHIC

[Groomlakearea51]

THE EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS FROM THE NHC FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER THIS MORNING. REGARDLESS... AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WINDS WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS. REGARDLESS...IT COULD STRENGTHEN AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

HERE'S THE TRACK PATH FOR THE SYSTEM OFF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS:

[Groomlakearea51]

AND THE LATEST MILSAT PHOTO OF THAT SYSTEM:

[Groomlakearea51]

The key to what it may or may not do will be the results of the recon flight later today. They will drop sensors through the system and run the data through the supercomputer models.

The old "Pray to the Weather Gods...."[li] thought comes to mind.....

[dtel's wife]

I can see why they are sending a plane in today. Looks like that "thing" is getting "wound up"!

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's what they are saying;

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
910 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COULD BE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO CONFIRM IF A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTION...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

I'm trying to get the flight schedule now.

[Groomlakearea51]

"Time on target" for the flight is supposed to be at about 1300 hours (1:00 PM); they will be looking at it from the surface through 10,000 feet.

[Dflip]

This is storm 1 we have been following. The good news for the US is it will travel in the Carribean south of Dean and hit Belize, also south of Dean.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 010233
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...AND TOBAGO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA...AND FOR THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER ST. LUCIA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...EAST OF GRENADA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BEFORE DAWN ON SATURDAY...AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. BARBADOS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33
MILS PER HOUR...54 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 7 INCHES. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...COASTAL VENEZUELA AND THE OFFSHORE
ISLANDS...AND THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...59.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

[Dflip]

Here is the update on the satellite image.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING A LITTLE MORE THAN 200 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS GETTING READY TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AND DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
FORMED. WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE PROMPTLY REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THAT AREA
SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTION. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

[dtel's wife]

Dflip:

Thanks for the update.

I just came to check on the depression that's out there. I sure hope this one follows the projected path. I guess Monday will be the tell-tale day, although the NHC was just about "right on" with Dean.

[Dflip]

The storm is now called Felix. It is going to hit hurricane status earlier, Sunday, than projected yesterday. The path forcast is still the same.

TROPICAL STORM FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2007

...FELIX MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND STRENGTHENING...

AT 8 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA IS
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 455
MILES...730 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
600 MILES...965 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 7
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
ISLANDS OF ARBUA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...12.3 N...63.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.