Hurricane Season - 2008

[Groomlakearea51]

Streamlines show very general steering; and the high pressure areas show "bumps" that they will try to go around in some fashion.

[Groomlakearea51]

All factors play out here. Notice that the Sea Surface Temperatures are almost (key word - almost...) normal in the west Atlantic and in the Gulf. That will help a bit as far as possibly limiting Ike strengthening into a Cat-4 monster. If I were to predict Ike; I'd say Cat-3 in mid-Gulf, but Cat-2 when it makes landfall. Just MHO at the moment.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's Ike's track as of 8:00 AM.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the latest discussion; NOTE: The "key" discussions are released at 5:00 AM, 11:00 AM and at 5:00 PM by the NHC.

One of the things about the "models" is that some models use the other models as part of their data!!!. This is very interesting and one of the effects upon predicting tracks is discussed below.

WTNT44 KNHC 080900
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IKE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THE EYE IS STILL VISIBLE BUT THE EYEWALL IS NOW ENTIRELY OVER LAND AND ITS STRUCTURE HAS DEGRADED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN SHOWS LESS WEAKENING OVER LAND THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL... IN THE EVENT THAT THE CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER SOONER THAN FORECAST. IF IKE FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK IT WILL BE OVER LAND FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND WOULD ALMOST SURELY BE WEAKER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THAN SHOWN HERE.

NEVERTHELESS... THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO RESTRENGTHENING WITH A VERY DIFLUENT LIGHT SHEAR UPPER WIND PATTERN AND WARM WATERS BELOW.

THE MAJOR UNKNOWN IS HOW DISRUPTED IKE WILL BE WHEN IT EMERGES.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. IKE'S TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO BEND GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AS THE STORM NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...

THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN CALLING FOR A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON DAYS 4-5. THE GFDL AND HWRF... WHICH USE THE GFS FOR BOUNDARY CONDITIONS... MAY
BE PICKING UP ON THAT AND SHOW A BEND TO THE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF...SHOW MUCH MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THOSE RANGES AND HAVE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. EVEN THOUGH THE GFDLHAS PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH IKE SO FAR... I'VE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST THE TRACK EASTWARD GIVEN THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FIELDS IN THE GFS HAVE NO SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER MODELS. IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
KNOW WHAT PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 21.2N 77.3W 90 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 08/1800Z 21.6N 79.0W 75 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 09/0600Z 22.4N 81.2W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 09/1800Z 23.1N 83.0W 60 KT...EMERGING INTO GULF
48HR VT 10/0600Z 23.9N 84.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 25.5N 87.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 90.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 13/0600Z 28.5N 93.0W 100 KT

[Groomlakearea51]

The track models, unfortunately, still show it headed towards the Houston area.

[CECAA850]

Unfortunately a Houston evacuation GREATLY impacts our ability to evacuate even though we're 90 miles away (closer as the crow flies). Just the sheer volume of people that leave has far reaching effects on fuel, lodging and food for this part of the state/country.

[CECAA850]

Ike's path reminds me a little of Rita's. Started out in the same area and headed into the gulf.

I stand by my thoughts of 5 days ago.

[CECAA850]

Ike's now tracking more southwardly[Y]

[Dflip]

It appears at the moment to be tracking between Freeport and Port O'Connor, Texas. The good news, there is a barrier island and then little near the shore. That would be good news, except of course, for those who live there. It sure beats Beaumont and then Houston. Houston and San Antonio are going to get a lot of rain and San Antonio might end up taking more of Ike than initially thought (local flooding).

[oldtimer]

Come on ike, bring me some rain! And don't hurt anyone on the way.

[billybob]

Turks & Caicos around 82 had a blast off of Hurricane ? that destroyed to basically unusable scrap, metal and fiberglass satellite dishes of various sizes of 16 to 12 foot, that was being used for an island cable service. A real-time testing/proving ground. The only dish left standing with very minimal damage. a Paraclipse. At around approx. 90 MPH, the mesh dish appears solid to the wind, as the wind-loading capacity is reached... Haiti is really catching it, lately.

[Dflip]

The image shown on my last post is and ever changing one. I did not save the image to my desktop, but rather just copied it. So it shows the latest projection. I has continued to move further south, maybe Corpus Christi. With the way it continues to head south and west, it may even end up closer to the Mexican border. We will see, but the last ten projections have continued to migrate south and westwardly.

Tues morning: It continues to shift further south and is close to Padre Island. The way it's going it might almost hit the Mexican border in another day.

[CECAA850]

Si

[Groomlakearea51]

Josephine has dwindled into nothing more than a "trough". The new tracks really show how that high pressure area can push the storm around. What helped us out in 2006 & 2007 were the high pressure frontal boundaries that kept coming from Canada somewhat early in the season. The result we saw was the storm tracks crossing the Caribbean and when they did turn, it was pretty much too late to affect Florida or the Gulf.

Meanwhile, here's the NHC discussion:

WTNT44 KNHC 090858
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT IKE HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BUT THE INNER CORE OR EYE IS VERY SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED... ABOUT 6 TO 8 NM. THE EYE CAN BE SEEN FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS. ALTHOUGH THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN AROUND 963-965 MB... THE MAXIMUMFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS MEASURED SO FAR WERE ONLY 69 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KNOTS ASSUMING THAT THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION... BUT THIS VALUE APPEARS QUITE GENEROUS AT THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED STRUCTURE ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AND THE FACT THAT IKE HAS SEVERAL MORE HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA... THE WINDSWINDS COULD INCREASE SOME NEAR THE CORE BEFORE MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA. ONCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS... IKE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CONDUCIVE... AND THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER SEVERAL AREAS OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND THIS VALUE IS IN BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS.

FIXES FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS AS WILL AS PENETRATIONS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE SMALL EYE OF IKE IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS...VERY CLOSE TO THE ZAPATA PENINSULA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE SOUTH COAST OF HAVANA PROVINCE SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEN...THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. UNFORTUNATELY... IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR TO WHERE HURRICANE GUSTAV CROSSED CUBA A WEEK OR SO AGO. THE STEERING PATTERN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE. THEREAFTER... THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN AND SHOULD FORCE IKE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. GUIDANCE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND ONCE AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND STILL IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

IT CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS. DO NOT FORGET THAT FEW DAYS AGO...THE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY HAD IKE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE DANGER TOWARD WESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0900Z 22.0N 82.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 22.7N 83.5W 80 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 85.3W 85 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 24.2N 86.8W 90 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 88.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 25.5N 93.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 27.0N 97.5W 100 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 14/0600Z 28.0N 100.5W 40 KT...INLAND

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the MILTRACK for this morning:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the track spaghetti models. NOTE: Unlike yesterday.... they spread out again alot after 72 hours.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's this morning's IR satellite shot:

[Groomlakearea51]

NHC refers to the steering currents... In this graphic you can see how they will tend to move Ike more westward in about the mid-Gulf area:

[Groomlakearea51]

They also refer to the warm sea temps.... While not really an "anomaly", the very warm waters that Ike will encounter are directly in front of the projected path.

[Groomlakearea51]

For dtel's.... This is in 96 hours, and you can see that there are NO steering currents that would cause it to go nuts, take a right and head for Picayune....