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sputnik

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sputnik last won the day on October 10 2017

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About sputnik

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  1. In critical condition. Crap! https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/john-prine-critical-condition-hospitalization-220631057.html
  2. It sounds like a really good reason to get a nice sports car. Only half joking, I think new experiences throughout life really do rejuvenate the spirit, mind, and body.
  3. I left my home in Georgia and I headed for the Bristol Bay.
  4. ‘Bear Market, Sell decent rallies” I assume that applies to equities. In a Bear Market, would you also say to Buy inverse funds in decent rallies?
  5. I wasn’t talking about hedging, just my experience in our Saturday night poker games that you have to risk more when your chip stack is down.
  6. ‘Yep, that's math alright. The price (points) are the same. If you lose 50 points, it takes 50 points back up to break even. Dollars are dollars. The percentages are different due to a diffherent base of comparison, but you know that.” Yes, and certainly no intention to obfuscate, but odds are usually expressed as some sort of percentage or fraction. The point is that you have to risk more of your holdings to make up a loss. Whenever the Las Vegas casinos open again and you decide to sit down at a blackjack table with an initial stake of $150 and lose a $50 bet having risked 1/3 of your stake, you’ll now have to risk half of your remaining stack of chips to just to get even. Even though the odds are the same and you’re placing $50 dollar bets each time, your risk is higher to make up a loss. I have no idea of how assess risk in complex financial markets where average rates of return aren’t fixed, like blackjack (that is, if you stick to basic strategy), but vary depending on the time frame and market conditions; however, I think you’d still have to assume more risk in order to win back what you’ve lost.
  7. If your portfolio lost 33%, it’ll have to re-gain 50% just to break even.💸
  8. Wow! TVIX hit $1,000 today. After having only partially followed JDM’s initial suggestion, I’m happy to be up about 23% right now. I’ve been selling off shares of TVIX on the way up but I’m still holding about 8% of my portfolio in TVIX and the rest is in cash just waiting to be invested in the rubble of the final market blow-out. I’m only posting today to “publically” thank Jeff for continuing to offer his insights here despite a few somewhat snarky comments. I’ll never be an investment wizard but I have learned quite a bit and maybe others have as well.
  9. Spam offers many culinary possibilities.
  10. Just noticed that Bitcoin has dropped 50% in the last 30 days. Wasn't it supposed to be some sort of a safe haven from world economic collapse?
  11. I didn't really make much of a killing. I was going to go totally into cash in February just because the market seemed to be on thin ice. No sophisticated analysis on my part - just a feeling that the market was not stable after so much juicing. Seemed like anything negative could trigger a collapse like tossing a bowling ball to the guy out there on the thin ice - if not a pandemic then maybe fragile oil markets or the Chinese real estate bubble would finally pop. After reading JDM's original posts, I did do the research (as he suggested) before making any investment moves and I decided that I'd balance the TVIX and other inverse fund purchases (TZA, EDZ, and SSG) by holding on to small amounts of Amazon, Apple, ATT, CentyryLink, and DIA (Dow tracking ETF) that dragged me back down some. It was interesting, though, that over the past couple of weeks, I made a little profit every day with that balance whether the market went up or down. The first down day was last Friday, after the stupid press conference ( I had rebalanced and was still up about 3% just before that). My original goal was just to be totally in cash to re-invest when the market took a big hit. Sold off some more of the TVIX this morning at what seemed like a reasonable profit and have cashed in more than my original investment but I'm still holding on to enough to now make up about 12% of my portfolio at current pricing. Correction: Just checked and TVIX is now 16% of my modest portfolio. 2nd Correction: 16.5% (after selling a bit more at $624 just ahead of the close)
  12. I only gambled enough to not lose but I'm still happy to be up by 10% since 02/27/2020 and a little smarter thanks to JDM's posts. Would've been a whole lot smarter and happier had I followed his advice to the letter when I invested 2% in TVIX at $39.
  13. I’m thinking it might be a good time to trim back a bit (maybe 20%) on TVIX (and the other inverse fund) holdings and lock in a little profit? Is there a reason to expect even higher values in the near term? Don’t want to be too greedy.
  14. Just now, Dow futures are down by around 1,000 points after the press conference. It’ll be interesting to watch the Asian markets and Wall Street tomorrow. Does 0% interest just amp up JDM’s earlier investor credit graph??
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