USNRET Posted June 29, 2010 Share Posted June 29, 2010 Due to work I am riding this one out on Padre. Wife says they ain't leaving unless I do. Perhaps she'll change her mind about time the roads are jammed or she'll approve of a generator after no power for a few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted June 29, 2010 Share Posted June 29, 2010 Due to work I am riding this one out on Padre. Wife says they ain't leaving unless I do. Perhaps she'll change her mind about time the roads are jammed or she'll approve of a generator after no power for a few days. Is this her first hurricane on the coast? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 29, 2010 Author Share Posted June 29, 2010 Storm surge is predicted to be likely 20-30% above normal high tide. Also known as the SLOSH model... (I'm not kidding!!) Look at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/psurgegraphics_at1.shtml?gm Zoom in and see what's sloshing.... Padre Island appears to be about a 20% chance of >4 feet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 29, 2010 Author Share Posted June 29, 2010 Looking a little better (depending upon where you live...) ALEX HAS TURNED LEFT AND ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE 12 HR MOTION IS 325/10...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE FASTER. RAWINSONDE DATA THIS MORNING SHOW HEIGHT RISES FROM 850-500 MB OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS...INDICATING THE LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THIS AREA IS STRENGTHENING AS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALEX WILL GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AS IT STRENGTHENS FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR. INDEED...THE ECMWF AND THE NAM SUGGEST ALEX COULD TURN SOUTH OF WEST AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. HOWEVER...IT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...ONLY THE HWRF AND NOGAPS ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 29, 2010 Author Share Posted June 29, 2010 Note the change in the predicted track paths. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 29, 2010 Author Share Posted June 29, 2010 It's now not predicted to achieve CAT-2 which is a good thing for Dave, Carl and the folks in TX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 29, 2010 Author Share Posted June 29, 2010 The big picture. Notice that it's well defined and basically...... Huge...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 29, 2010 Author Share Posted June 29, 2010 Fascinating - visible image Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted June 29, 2010 Share Posted June 29, 2010 That's quite a wide angle lens you have there Marshall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USNRET Posted June 29, 2010 Share Posted June 29, 2010 Is this her first hurricane on the coast?Yep, for her it is although we did ride out a typhoon once in S. Korea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USNRET Posted June 29, 2010 Share Posted June 29, 2010 Just a little of the first bands of Alex coming in at sunset. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 Clearly visible circulation and strong easterly winds in Houston this AM. This is one BIG storm, area wise. Probably a good thing it formed this early. If it had another month or so of warming it would have been wicked. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 30, 2010 Author Share Posted June 30, 2010 The bigger, the slower.... and usually the really big ones do not get as powerful. drawback is that they "linger" and eventually things start coming apart.... Meanwhile..... WTNT41 KNHC 300851 TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 400 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010 ALEX HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING BASED ON WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND THE APPEARANCE OF A SMALL EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 0842Z MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB AND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 82 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SFMR ABOARD THE PLANE MEASURED A RELIABLE SURFACE WIND OF 62 KT AND A RAIN-CONTAMINATED PEAK WIND OF 71 KT. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WAS T4.5/77 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALEX HAS WOBBLED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND EVEN BRIEFLY STALLED. HOWEVER...TRENDING THROUGH THE SATELLITE AND RECON FIXES YIELDS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF 290/06. UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS AT 00Z INDICATED MODEST 10-30 METER HEIGHT RISES FROM 700-400 MB ACROSS THE GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...BUT ALSO TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF ALEX ACROSS TEXAS MEXICO TO THE WEST. THIS MEANS ALEX IS EMBEDDED BETWEEN TO RIDGES AND IN A WEAKER STEERING FLOW REGIME THAT NONE OF THE MODELS PICKED UP ON IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO STEER ALEX ON WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AFTER THAT. THERE HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING CHANGE IN THE 00Z AND 06 MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF SHIFTING FARTHER NORTHWARD...WHICH MEANS THIS MDOEL HAS GONE FROM BEING THE PERSISTENT LEFT-MOST OF THE MODELS TO THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL SUITE...AND IT NOW HAS A TRACK SIMILAR TO HWRF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION... AND REMAINS NEAR THE EXTREME RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THAT ALEX IS ALSO MOVING SLOWLY OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THAT REGION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...STEADY STRENGTHENING RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL SEEMS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE RECON AIRCRAFT...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF AT LEAST 30 KT IN 24 HOURS IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 23.3N 95.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 23.8N 96.2W 80 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 24.3N 97.7W 85 KT 36HR VT 01/1800Z 24.5N 99.6W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 02/0600Z 24.4N 101.7W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 72HR VT 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 30, 2010 Author Share Posted June 30, 2010 The who's gonna get it when chart... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 30, 2010 Author Share Posted June 30, 2010 The spaghetti charts...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 30, 2010 Author Share Posted June 30, 2010 The big picture..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 30, 2010 Author Share Posted June 30, 2010 The small picture.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 30, 2010 Author Share Posted June 30, 2010 The MIL analysis with the wind speed radius rings as they predict. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. RF62 Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 Weather is something I've always been interested about. These pictures are astonishing. Especially the live ones taken by an individual capturing the coming storm. Good luck toall down there this year!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 First hurricane of the season is a "Swing and a miss!". I love it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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