Groomlakearea51 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Yah... well... it's a little early, but.... remember well that this is how the now infamous 2005 season started..... ABNT20 KNHC 201935 TWOAT SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 335 PM EDT WED APR 20 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR ITS CENTER. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE OUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER FZNT02 KNHC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY... OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. As per usual, the NHC folks have not released their official estimate as of yet. There are a number of links that you can look at that can really assist in understanding how these storms work, etc. The best place to start is.... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Look at the left side bar and just "explore"..... Later, and hopefully we will have some luck again this year. [H] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 At least we know that you'll be posting regularly again[]. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted April 21, 2011 Share Posted April 21, 2011 Marshal, it's a pleasure. Under the current weather pattern I fear the Texas Gulf region is pretty wide open. Last year we had a lot of help from nature and they couldn't get near us. This time, not so much... Dave PS - I should point out it's a mixed blessing. A nice, slow moving, large TS coming ashore between here and Corpus would be welcomed by all in the current drought. Problem is that life is like a box of chocolates... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunburnwilly Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Please give us another Earl here in SC ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted April 22, 2011 Author Share Posted April 22, 2011 Gotta love these graphics..... It will circle around in ever increasings swaths of rain and pain.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJkizak Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 We kind of like the spent hurricanes as they arrive in Ohio because they bring us tons of rain. You know that after it rains you have enough water to live for another 30 days. JJK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 Fortunately it's dying out, but we may get some rain in south Florida out of it next week...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willland Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Marshall, No hurricane but some nasty looking stuff coming through your neck of the woods very soon. Lots of lightening and very gusty wind. TV stand delivered and setup. Bill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted May 17, 2011 Author Share Posted May 17, 2011 Sunday's front blew through (literally) and we are now enjoying early morning temps back in the low 60's. Nothing else going on at the moment in the Atlantic, but I suspect that will change...... [H] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 And so it starts...... SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. A SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TUESDAY...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Well, in keeping with the start of the season we have at least gotten past the false start back in May. According to the NHC, this system has begun to have a reasonable chance of developing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Sat image and text. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY A HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Track plots from the computer ensembles are of no help whatsoever. In the case of this storm, I would like to see some rain if it moves north east, but not a monsoon..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Fortunately, the Sea Surface Temps (SST's) are not to badly out of wack yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Unfortunately, storms in June historically will start where this one is and head north to Florida and Georgia, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Now for the usual scare tactics picture.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Bump to the top. What's going on out there Marshall? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Doesn't look like Marshall need waste his time on this one unless the angels intervene. We're praying for a TS or even a cat 1 in the Galveston Bay area and so far the season is a total bust. This thing off the Florida west coast is just barely a bunch of rain and such movement as it has is all the wrong directions. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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