USNRET Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Please bring us some rain. Our road side alert signs are advising that water rationing may be coming soon due to the extreme drought. Hypno Frog, I offer a sacrifice of your weight in delectable bugs; do your duty and bring us some relief! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Okay, they finally name a storm after me and it's going to be a little whimpering tropical storm? Tropical Storm Don has 35 mph winds and is travelling at 12 mph. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORMCOULD BE FORMING ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. AN AIRFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TOINVESTIGATE THE AREA...AND IF IT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF ACIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITORTHIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THISSYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT..OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Hypno Frog, I offer a sacrifice of your weight in delectable bugs; do your duty and bring us some relief! Looks like you need to get a bag of crickets together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USNRET Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Looks like it the track and ETA remain close I will be back at home enjoying it. Good thing I am on vacation or I would be doing foul wx stuff at work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Don't get too excited...... It's not moving really fast, and that may mean more rain than you want at one time.... Here's the tracks: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Pretty pictures time: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 8 am update on Don, 40 mph storm at the moment: ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL800 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2011FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICALSTORM DON LOCATED ABOUT 545 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUSCHRISTI TEXAS.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON DON ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC ANDUNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDERWMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.$$FORECASTER BEVEN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Nice cloud patterns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Advisory extract: DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.8 WEST. DON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE DON. DON IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Estimated winds and locations for next 48 hours. PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 88.7W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 88.3W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.9N 90.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.1N 92.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.3N 94.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.3N 97.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 29.0N 101.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 An interesting analysis by the NHC forecaster. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY. WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH SHEAR...THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE NOT WELL-ALIGNED INITIALLY...WHICH WAS APPARENT ON A 2316Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS HAVE A REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF THIS INITIAL STRUCTURE AND KEEP THE CENTERS FROM VERTICALLY STACKING...POSSIBLY WHY THESE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION. WHILE THE STATISTICALLY MODELS STILL FORECAST STEADY STRENGTHENING...THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS FORECAST A SLOW DECLINE. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE SIZE OF DON MAKES IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID CHANGES IN STRENGTH...BOTH UP AND DOWN...THAT ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST. GIVEN THE REDUCED ORGANIZATION...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED SOMEWHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS STILL ON THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR A COMPOSITE OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Fascinating. Could be a footnote, or could be the storm of the century. It's a sneaky one. Looks like a 30% or so chance of some rain for us, though given the capricious nature of this beast it could be a LOT more or none at all... Should know something a bit more firm by this time tomorrow...she isn't that far away. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel Posted July 28, 2011 Moderators Share Posted July 28, 2011 It looks like Texas is finally going to get some rain hopefully, these things most of the time bring more clouds than actual rain. We were in a drought also then it started to rain everyday about a 10 days ago and has been raining every day since. The grass went from crispy to green and now really needs to be cut [:|], the pond was about 6"-8" lower than normal but now back to normal. I have alot of grass to cut when it dries, ours and my sisters, about 2 days of cutting with a 6' wide finishing mower. Looks like another bunch of clouds east of the Belize area ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 The 2 pm update on Don: BULLETINTROPICAL STORM DON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011100 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011...CENTER OF DON NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...24.6N 90.7WABOUT 475 MI...765 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXASABOUT 430 MI...690 KM E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXASMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...NONE.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASSA TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...* TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDEA TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREPOSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITEDSTATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASEMONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICEFORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.7 WEST. DON ISMOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...23 KM/H. A GENERAL MOTIONTOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON SHOULD CROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OFMEXICO TODAY...APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY....AND REACH THETEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KMFROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVEHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNINGAREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREPOSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTNEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEARTHE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGINGWAVES.[] RAINFALL...DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF3 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST WESTWARD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 It looks like Texas is finally going to get some rain hopefully, these things most of the time bring more clouds than actual rain. Thanks Eldon. We're rather hoping for the rain... Interesting storm and NOAA doesn't really seem to be taking it very seriously even though, by their own admission, it's a tough one to predict. Since it will be on collision course with Texas by this time tomorrow, I hope it doesn't go Ike on us suddenly. It CAN happen... Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 We'll have to get updates from Michael (USNRET) and my son. They're both in Corpus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Yep, they ought to be into it. Your son got a room with bass under it? This one has a short fuse. The weather patterns are way too complex for my meager skills, but logic suggests the GOM is LOADED with heat energy. Got to be some very powerful forces keeping this one from manning up. Let's hope they hold... Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Yep, they ought to be into it. Your son got a room with bass under it? Nah, he's in an apartment. I've got cut wood and a driver for a small tapped horn sub, but I've put off building it for him. I don't want him to get kicked out[] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 The 8 pm update, Don has shifted a bit to the west, but the projections haven't changed much. It should hit late Friday, early Saturday and the 40 - maybe 50 mph winds are what is predicted. The rainfall and storm surge are as predicted earlier and are posted above. Let the fun begin! There is another storm out there and the first of many. So far this year there isn't an upper atmosphere wind blowing everything out to the eastern Atlantic. AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WASESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. DATA FROMA NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT DON HAS JOGGED WESTWARDOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE STORM SHOULD RESUME AWEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...TONIGHT. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECASTDURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTEROF DON SHOULD APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY...AND THEN MAKELANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAYMORNING.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MAKESLANDFALL.TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KMFROM THE CENTER.ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The 11 am update on Don indicates it will strength a bit more to approximately 60 mph winds and continue on the same path. It will not strengthen any more than that due to the very dry conditions to the north and west of Don. TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0420111000 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DON HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZEDTHIS MORNING WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE CENTRALCONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THESTORM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE 10-15 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR...WITH AN ELONGATED OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN AND A STREAM OF ARCCLOUDS IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN QUADRANTS OF THE CYCLONE.AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 850 MBFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATEDFROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS NEAR 1002 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITYREMAINS 45 KT.THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/12. DEEP-LAYER RIDGING OVER THESOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLYWEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OVER LAND IN36-48 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THEPREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCEENVELOPE.DON SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE SHEAR UNTIL THE CENTERMAKES LANDFALL IN ABOUT 18 HR. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERYAND MICROWAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SHOW DRY AIR CLOSE TO THEWESTERN SIDE OF DON. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPEDESIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THUS THE INTENSITYFORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. DON SHOULD WEAKENSTEADILY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATECOMPLETELY BY 48 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.INTERESTS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELYMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DON. ANY SMALL DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OFTHE FORECAST TRACK COULD NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS FORTHE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 29/1500Z 26.2N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 26.8N 96.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 27.7N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0000Z 28.3N 101.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED$$FORECASTER BEVEN System 1 in the Atlantic now has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm. 1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURESYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSERANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OFORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FORGRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS AMEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURINGTHE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15TO 20 MPH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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