Hurricane Season - 2011

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the MIL estimate; NOTE the arcs of destruction!!!

.

.

[CECAA850]

Too far away for any rain for us. []

[Dflip]

The 11 am update and it's now predicted to reach 115 mph, so that would make it a low level CAT 3 hurricane.

000 WTNT44 KNHC 221504 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011 DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER THE WINDS WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS AROUND 988 MB IN THE LAST CENTER DROPSONDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AND THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND MAKES IRENE A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IN FACT...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. IRENE IS BECOMING A LARGE CYCLONE...AND BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND 160 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. IRENE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE... THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST...BUT STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE CURRENT GUIDANCE LESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA. DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 19.2N 67.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 19.9N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 20.5N 71.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 21.2N 73.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 22.0N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 77.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 28.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 32.5N 80.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA The latest projected forecast for landfall a bit further north towards Charlestown, S.C. from the previous Savanah, which means it misses more of the east coast of Florida. A number of the models have it hitting between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington, near Oak Island, N.C.

[Groomlakearea51]

Too far away for any rain for us.

In this instance.... you should be thankful....

[Groomlakearea51]

It's gonna' be a monster....

[Groomlakearea51]

The latest from the NHC

[Groomlakearea51]

and the latest computer models

.

.

.

[Groomlakearea51]

The "conservative" estimate....

.... MAKES IRENE A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IN FACT...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. IRENE IS BECOMING A LARGE CYCLONE...AND BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND 160 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

Any members who live in north Georgia, South Carolina need to really pay attention to this thing.

[8-|]

[dtel]

This is going to be a close one for you. possibly real close, and does not look good for the East coast, especially Charleston SC unless it turns more Eastward ?

Coytee your not in Tennessee anymore, [] might want to get some bottled water, a hand operated can opener and something to eat without requiring cooking or elec for a few days, just in case of power outages, and keep the car full of gas.

[chili bone]

I suppose I should start keeping an eye to the south as things are starting to get interesting come this weekend.

[dtel]

I suppose I should start keeping an eye to the south as things are starting to get interesting come this weekend.

Wilmington, NC, I would think that would be a good idea.

[sunburnwilly]

This is going to be a close one for you. possibly real close, and does not look good for the East coast, especially Charleston SC unless it turns more Eastward ?

We've dodged allot of bullets over the years since Hugo but I think this storm is going to give us some problems . Already measured out my hallway to make sure I have enough room for my speakers and tv to fit .

[chili bone]

I suppose I should start keeping an eye to the south as things are starting to get interesting come this weekend.

Wilmington, NC, I would think that would be a good idea.

Yeah, this isn't our first rodeo with a storm. I've seen the eye of 4 hurricanes pass over my house since 1996. I know the Gulf has been having their share over the last few years, but I think we have been due for one on the east coast. It's just the way the cycle goes.

Carl

[Dflip]

Irene has intensified and is now projected to be a strong CAT 3 hurricane in the next 24 hours. No change in the projection, but those of you who live near the coast in close to the South - North Carolina border, might want to start preparing, boarding up and getting to higher ground if required.

Here are links to interesting articles comparing storm surges and why Katrina was more devasting than Camile. Both were CAT 5 hurricanes in the Gulf and Katrina hit as a CAT 3 but it's large eye and overall width produced four times the water than Camile. http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/surge_details.asp

http://www.hurricanescience.org/society/impacts/stormsurge/

HURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
830 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND
MAXIMUM OF 106 KT ON ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF IRENE.
BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 85 KT.
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE
HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH NO EYE IS VISIBLE YET
IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. HOWEVER...AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON
THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR AND WAS ALSO SEEN IN A 2230 UTC SSMIS
PASS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 981 MB BASED ON A
DROPSONDE OBSERVATION OF 982 MB WITH 10 KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE.
GIVEN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD BY
15 KT THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A SMALLER UPWARD ADJUSTMENT AT 48 AND
72 HOURS. ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
NEW FORECAST NOW SHOWS IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON AIRCRAFT
DATA AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST.

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0030Z 19.7N 68.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[LarryC]

Marshall, Dtel, Dflip: I see the center of the predicted pathway is headed toward DC and where I live just to its north, Bethesda, MD. Gary lives between me and Baltimore.

What is your best estimate of peak wind speed in the Bethesda area, and how long will it last? I remember one hurricane leftover windstorm several years ago that just howled and howled for hours and hours.

Our local power co. has finally been doing some equipment updating and tree trimming, and we haven't had a power outage for maybe a year. Fingers' crossed... [st][]

[Dflip]

Too hard to predict where it will hit in 5 days time, but the last major hurricane to hit your area was Isabel. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Isabel_in_Maryland_and_Washington,_D.C. Isabel calmed down to a tropical storm once it proceeded inland and then headed north towards Toronto.

Isabel created a lot of damage, but that was due to the storm surge (a CAT 5 hurricane that hit the continental shelf and it had hurricane force winds 115 miles from the eye. That combination will produce a much larger storm surge than normal when that combination occurs, Isabel, Hazel, Galveston and Katrina would be good example. Irene, at least at the moment is not projected to reach that level, so the surge should be less. As for the Washington area, expect winds, rain and some flooding. Most depressions start to pick up speed as they go inland and unless stopped by mountains where they dump most of the rain they have left, pick up speed and cause less damage. Of course there are exceptions like Hazel, that did a lot of damage as far away as Toronto. There are reasons why individuals should never buy the house with the lowest elevation on the street unless they want to tempt fate and wet basements.

[dtel]

What is your best estimate of peak wind speed in the Bethesda area, and how long will it last? I remember one hurricane leftover windstorm several years ago that just howled and howled for hours and hours.

That's a good question, it could be anywhere from a Cat 2-5 ?

If it goes in somewhere in Northern North Carolina it would a fair piece of land to start slowing, also this will depend on the size at that time and forward speed. There are so many variables that can change in 24 hours. One thing that is for sure, when your closer to the coast it last for much more than hours and hours.

Just a guess I would guess if it went in somewhere in North Carolina as say a strong cat 3, I might think you could see 60-80 mph ? Please remember I run/leave from these things when over a 1-2, so this is just a COMPLETE GUESS.

For Katrina we left [Y] and it was estimated to be 140 mph from local authorities, we were right on the Eastern eye side of the storm. 2 days later on our way back from North Louisiana you could tell where you were at in relation to the eye by which direction all the trees were laying down. Our house had a mostly North/Northeast hit from the strongest winds, we were VERY lucky. There was metal roofing and siding wrapped around the top of pine trees 80' in the air, Trees had no leaves left on them, we live 10 miles from the interstate and there were 3 -4 power lines left standing over the 10 miles.

[Dflip]

The 11 pm update, check out the new maximum speed for the winds. 135 mph makes Irene a low CAT 4 and the potential for a higher tidal surge a greater concern.

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

AFTER DEEPENING QUICKLY EARLIER THIS EVENING...THE INTENSITY OF
IRENE APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF A BIT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 980 MB ...AND MAXIMUM WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED SINCE THE EARLIER MAXIMUM OF 106 KT AT 850 MB.
THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
OVERALL THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...
WITH A LARGE CDO FORMING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER AND THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTING A CLOSED EYEWALL.  SOUTHERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 10
KT IS PRESENT OVER IRENE ACCORDING TO SATELLITE ANALYSIS FROM
UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING.  THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SPECIAL ADVISORY AND SHOWS
IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS AND REACHING A
PEAK OF 115 KT IN 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THE NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS AFTER THAT TIME.

AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THAT THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED
A BIT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/10. OVERALL THE
TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED...AS IRENE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO ON THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED EAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL LIFT OUT WITHIN 24
HOURS...LEAVING A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
BAHAMAS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW IRENE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD
AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY DAYS 2 AND 3.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE
TRACK OF IRENE APPEARS TO BE SENSITIVE TO THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES/CANADIAN BORDER. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME RUN-TO-RUN
VARIABILITY IN HOW MUCH THESE SHORTWAVES WILL AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN
THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WILL BE
CRITICAL TO HOW SOON IRENE TURNS NORTHWARD OR EVEN EAST OF DUE
NORTH AT DAYS 4 AND 5. OVERALL...THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE
HAS DECREASED THIS CYCLE...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE SLIGHT
RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION AND A SLIGHT WESTWARD
SHIFT IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS RESULTS IN ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS A SLOWER FORWARD 
SPEED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWING THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE
THAT KEEPS THE CYCLONE OFFSHORE AT DAY 5.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR
AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...
RESPECTIVELY.

OF NOTE...SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE FLIGHTS FROM THE NOAA G-IV AND AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE C-130 AIRCRAFT PROVIDED NUMEROUS DROPSONDES FOR
ASSIMILATION INTO THE 0000 UTC MODEL CYCLE.  THIS SHOULD IMPROVE
THE ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND AND UPSTREAM OF IRENE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 19.9N  69.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 20.4N  70.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 21.1N  72.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 22.2N  74.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 23.5N  75.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 26.5N  78.0W  115 KT 135 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 30.0N  79.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 33.5N  78.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Dflip]

No real changes for the 5 a.m. update, except for a small shift to the right when it gets towards North Carolina. That puts it in direct line to Wilmington and possibly the barrier islands along the North Carolina Coast. A number of the computer forecsts have it going a bit more to the right and clipping the barrier islands, so it's time to start making plans if you live along the North Carolina coast.

[LarryC]

the last major hurricane to hit your area was Isabel. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Isabel_in_Maryland_and_Washington,_D.C. Isabel calmed down to a tropical storm once it proceeded inland and then headed north towards Toronto.

Yeah, Isabel was the one.