Hurricane Season - 2011

[chili bone]

Here is snippet from the local hurricane warning statement in Wilmington. Sleep will be hard to come by tomorrow night.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 30 TO 40 MPH FRIDAY EVENING...INCREASING TO 50 TO 70 MPH
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 75 TO 85 MPH ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM SATURDAY. POORLY
ANCHORED MOBILE HOMES MAY BE DESTROYED...ALONG WITH THOSE OF OLD
OR POOR CONSTRUCTION. SOME WELL ANCHORED MOBILE HOMES WILL HAVE
SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WALLS...AND WINDOWS...AND COULD
BECOME UNINHABITABLE. SOME HOMES OF FRAME CONSTRUCTION WILL
SUSTAIN PARTIAL WALL AND ROOF FAILURE...AND POSSIBLY BLOWN OUT
WINDOWS. LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
POWER OUTAGES WITH SOME DOWNED POWER POLES. NUMEROUS LARGE
BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP. SOME TREES WILL BE
UPROOTED...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES THE COAST...THERE IS AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR COMBINED STORM SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WATERS UP
TO 9 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WITHIN AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST...
RESULTING IN WORST CASE FLOOD INUNDATION OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SURGE ZONE.


...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEE LATEST
FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. TOTAL RAINFALL BY LATE SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE FOUR TO SIX INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO
ACT IF FLOODING RAINS OCCUR.


...COASTAL HAZARDS...
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL HAZARDS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL MAKE GOING INTO
THE WATER AT THE BEACHES UNSAFE. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AT ALL AREA BEACHES.

[Dflip]

The 11 p.m. update. The outer bands of Irene are supplying rain almost 200 miles from the eye.

Chili bone, it sounds like you are going to get a good kick from Irene, just be greatful you aren't another 100 - 125 miles up the North Carolina coast. It's hard to avoid Irene because it's just so darn big. I saw tv images today of the forced evacuation of the barrier islands and some of the coastal areas.

New York was even warning people in low lying areas to get out today because the public transit system isn't likely to be working on Saturday if Irene hits them directly and people will not be able to get to safety.

In 1821 a hurricane hit Manhattan and flooded it with 13 feet of water as the Hudson and East River met, on August 25, 1893 a 30 foot storm surge flooded Queens and Brooklyn and the “Long Island Express” of 1938, with 183-mile-per-hour winds ripped through a spacely populated island. A CAT hurricane would require people within 10 blocks of the coast to risk flooding and a CAT 3 could produce a 30 foot storm surge and flood out the subway system. City officials drew up evacuation contingency plans for areas of the city most prone to flooding, such as Coney Island and Manhattan Beach in Brooklyn, and the Rockaways in Queens. South Beach and other coastal areas in Staten Island, as well as Battery Park City in Manhattan, could also be at risk. Mayor Bloomberg said any decision to evacuate residents would not take place until Friday night and would likely be a recommendation, rather than an across-the-board order.

A total of 270,000 people could be affected, he added.

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

TWO HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...ONE AIR FORCE AND ONE NOAA...ARE
AGAIN TONIGHT SUPPLYING VERY VALUABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA TO THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. BOTH PLANES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY FALLING AND IS NOW NEAR 942 MB...BUT THE
WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED YET. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100
KNOTS AT THIS TIME. IRENE HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND IS NOW OVER OPEN WATERS. THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED ON SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND IT APPEARS
THAT THE EYEWALL IS CONTRACTING. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND
THE WARM WATERS ALONG THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE...SOME
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A SLOW
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER...BUT IRENE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA A POWERFUL HURRICANE. IN
FACT...THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF SHOWS A VERY INTENSE CYCLONE
APPROACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS
ALREADY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS READY TO
INTERACT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE THE APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IRENE HAS NOWHERE TO GO BUT NORTHWARD WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES OR
PASSES NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...GIVING NO
REASON TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST...IT IS NOT NECESSARY TO ADJUST THE U.S.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 28.3N  77.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 30.0N  77.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 31.8N  77.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 33.7N  77.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 36.0N  76.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 42.0N  73.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 96H  30/0000Z 51.0N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  31/0000Z 58.0N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[dtel]

If we could just get a little more curve east, [Y] I don't like the direction the other one is going also.

[BigStewMan]

back in my coast guard days, i was at school in yorktown, va when hurricane gloria came through. the barracks were basically a fortress of brick and i slept through the hurricane. while underway on the way to hawaii, rode through a cyclone though--waves weren't very big (maybe 15 feet) but winds were over 70mph.

[Groomlakearea51]

Getting close to H-Hour up on the coast. here's the estimated 50 knot wind field graphics.

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[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the wind speed radii estimates.

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AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 77.2W

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT.......125NE 105SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT.......250NE 200SE 130SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 180SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.


FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 31.0N 77.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 105SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 130SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 33.1N 76.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 105SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 130SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 35.3N 76.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 105SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 130SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 37.8N 75.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 60NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 45.0N 70.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 140SW 120NW.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the wind speed "arc" graphics from the US Navy.

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[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the morning discussion from NHC.

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HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY OF IRENE IS NOT QUITE AT MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB WERE 109 KT ABOUT 75 N MI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS REPORTED FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WERE 87
KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS REDUCED TO 95 KT...WHICH IS ALSO BETWEEN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KT FROM TAFB ANND 90 KT FROM SAB. THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT A 20 N MI WIDE EYE IS PRESENT AND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 942 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/12. IRENE IS MOVING THROUGH A WEAKNESS AT THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IT SHOULD RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE FIRST 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR IRENE TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN ABOUT 36 HR...

THEN PASS NEAR THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND IN ROUGHLY 60 HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...

AND WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED A NOISE-LEVEL CHANGE. AFTER LANDFALL... IRENE SHOULD MERGE WITH THE CORE OF THE WESTERLIES AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD WITH ACCELERATION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALSYES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT IRENE IS ENCOUNTERING LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH THE CURRENT CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND DRY AIR ADVECTING TOWARD THE HURRICANE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ARGUE AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.... AND INDEED THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL.

ON THE OTHER HAND...THE EYEWALL CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY STRONG...AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE 28-29C. THIS SUGGESTS SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.

IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE CATEGORY 2/3 BOUNDARY WHEN IT REACHES THE VICINITY OF THE OUTER BANKS...AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER THAT. AFTER MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND...IRENE SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IRENE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA AND AN ASCAT OVERPASS.

[Groomlakearea51]

It's big.....

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[Groomlakearea51]

Members in Georgia, Carolina's and Virginia should be seeing some outer rain bands by mid-day.

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[Groomlakearea51]

Good "side looking Infrared" image.

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[Groomlakearea51]

Track models. Not much change.

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[Dflip]

The 5 p.m. update. The good news is the winds are down from earlier predictions, the bad news is the storm is so big that it is going to produce a lot of rain over a very large area which will mean flooding. If I remember Marshall's comment from past years, it wasn't the winds from Frances that caused shingle failure in Florida because it was a CAT 1 storm, but the 12 hours plus of non-stop rain and wind that the shingles couldn't withstand and ultimately failed. Good luck to those of you in North Carolina.

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND ANY HIGHER WINDS AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN FACT...DATA FROM NEAR THE CONCLUSION OF THE
FLIGHT SUPPORT A SLIGHT LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT DID
REPORT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF
50-55 KT 135 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER...SHOWING THE LARGE SIZE OF
THE WIND FIELD. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT
PASS SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD ABOUT
225-250 N MI OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE HAS
ERODED. ALTHOUGH IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATER DURING THE
NEXT 12-18 HOURS...THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
ANY RESTRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...IRENE COULD WEAKEN JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IMPACTS FROM THIS LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL NOT BE VERY DIFFERENT IF IT IS A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM OR LOW-END HURRICANE. IRENE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINS ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND.  

IRENE IS STILL MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360/12 KT. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO
TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THAT HEADING UP
THE EAST COAST...AND BE MOVING AT ABOUT 15-17 KT AS IT APPROACHES
LONG ISLAND...MUCH SLOWER THAN NORMAL FOR STORMS IN THIS
AREA...WHICH WILL PRODUCE EXTENDED PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN MANY AREAS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF IRENE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
CYCLES. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 31.7N  77.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 33.4N  77.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 35.5N  76.3W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 36H  28/0600Z 38.2N  75.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  28/1800Z 41.8N  73.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 72H  29/1800Z 50.5N  65.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  30/1800Z 56.5N  51.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  31/1800Z 58.0N  32.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

[Dflip]

CNN was just reporting that rain will last for 24 hours because of the size of the storm with 12 hours before the eye hits and 12 hours later. The biggest danger is the storm surge which will hit the New York area at high tide. A number of areas along the coast will also have to worry about the storm surge as the storm approaches them from the southeast and then when the winds shift to it coming from the north with a second storm surge.

Up to 7 or 8 foot storm surges along Chesapeake and Delaware Bays.

To quote the New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie...

“Get the…off the beach … and get in your car,” Governor Christie said during a late Friday afternoon news conference. “You’re done, its 4:30, you’ve maximized your tan.”

“We have the possibility of record flooding,” said Governor Christie. “So just by awful luck, this thing it hitting New Jersey at a time when we’re at high tide, so the likelihood of flooding along the coast is overwhelming - and serious flooding along the coast - not just like you’re feet are getting wet.”

[USNRET]

We have dispatched aircraft to act as airborne Air Traffic Control in case of power outages of the FAA's ATC and others with special equipment for real time video and intel.

[Dflip]

The 11 pm update. The forecast is a bit more to the east which puts Irene along the coast of New Jersey. Very little of the North Carolina coast will be in the way and this will not slow her down as quickly and this could be bad news for New York. The forecast has Irene in the middle of Long Island at the moment, but it will still push a lot of water towards the East and Hudson Rivers.

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HAVE FOUND SURFACE PRESSURES OF 950-951 MB AND
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS RANGING FROM 99 KT TO 108 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF IRENE. HOWEVER...SFMR SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH
LOWER THAN THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR TYPICALLY
YIELDS. THIS DISPARITY IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA
FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY HAVE BEEN INDICATING VIGOROUS
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST OF THE RAGGED EYE...WITH
DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 90 KT OR GREATER AT ALTITUDE ABOVE 15000
FEET. BASED ON THE RADAR DATA AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONGER
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS COULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
IRENE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 85 KT.

RADAR AND RECON FIXES INDICATE IRENE HAS MADE THE LONG-FORECAST TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NOW AND IS MOVING AT 020/12 KT. IRENE IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE FORECAST
TRACK HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION.
HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP IRENE
CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE
TRACK FORECAST LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL TRACKS.

IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 28C UNTIL
LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN 12-18 HOURS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR ONLY
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. AFTER LANDFALL...HOWEVER...LAND INTERACTION...
COOLER WATER...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH A STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO THE VERY LARGE CIRCULATION OF
IRENE. THIS SHOULD DELAY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL IRENE IS
OVER MAINE OR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 32.6N  76.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 34.2N  76.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 36.7N  75.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 39.8N  74.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 43.8N  71.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 72H  30/0000Z 52.0N  62.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/0000Z 56.5N  46.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/0000Z 57.5N  26.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Jay481985]

We have dispatched aircraft to act as airborne Air Traffic Control in case of power outages of the FAA's ATC and others with special equipment for real time video and intel.

I hope to god they are not military, different lingo.

[Jay481985]

CNN was just reporting that rain will last for 24 hours because of the size of the storm with 12 hours before the eye hits and 12 hours later. The biggest danger is the storm surge which will hit the New York area at high tide. A number of areas along the coast will also have to worry about the storm surge as the storm approaches them from the southeast and then when the winds shift to it coming from the north with a second storm surge.

Up to 7 or 8 foot storm surges along Chesapeake and Delaware Bays.

To quote the New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie...

“Get the…off the beach … and get in your car,” Governor Christie said during a late Friday afternoon news conference. “You’re done, its 4:30, you’ve maximized your tan.”

“We have the possibility of record flooding,” said Governor Christie. “So just by awful luck, this thing it hitting New Jersey at a time when we’re at high tide, so the likelihood of flooding along the coast is overwhelming - and serious flooding along the coast - not just like you’re feet are getting wet.”

Oh our fatass governor has a glorified language.

[RRFL]

Oh our *** governor has a glorified language.

Is he Australian

[USNRET]

We have dispatched aircraft to act as airborne Air Traffic Control in case of power outages of the FAA's ATC and others with special equipment for real time video and intel.

I hope to god they are not military, different lingo.

Nope, civilian. We did this throughout the gulf oil spill as well; loots and lots of fixed and rotary wing aircraft buzzing around the spill.