Mallette Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Our first candidate. While the Houston area rain situation is nowhere as dire as last year a nice slow moving tropical depression would be most welcome...as long as it doesn't get carried away with itself. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I was wondering who was going to step up and start this thread this year. Thanks Dave. Marshall hasn't been on the forum for a while so I didn't think it would be him. I called him last week about something non-forum related. He seemed extremely busy and not his jovial self. Normally we have a good talk, I'm sure I just caught him at a bad time. He was still very helpful as always. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 20, 2012 Author Share Posted June 20, 2012 Well, up from 10 to 20 percent chance... 1. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS... ESPECIALLY IN CUBA WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJkizak Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 I steered a tin can through them in 1961. Don't care much for huricanes. Almost didn't make it in one of them with the OD making a turn and we took about a 30 second 43 degree roll right in the middle of the Atlantic ocean. JJK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel Posted June 20, 2012 Moderators Share Posted June 20, 2012 I was wondering who was going to step up and start this thread this year. Not me, I try to ignore them until they say RUN stupid ! Thanks Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Not me, I try to ignore them until they say RUN stupid ! I'm sure that would be the voice of your lovely wife. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest " " Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Yep, it's that time of the year. I'm one of those folks that opens High Schools and Colleges and turns them into temporary evacuation centers. We've already started our ramp up process. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel Posted June 20, 2012 Moderators Share Posted June 20, 2012 Not me, I try to ignore them until they say RUN stupid ! I'm sure that would be the voice of your lovely wife. Your right, I try to talk her into staying unless it's like a cat 3, it usually don't work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 Up another 10%... 1. A SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE BY THAT TIME AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Naturally. My wife and I were planning a trip to Louisiana next Tuesday and Wednesday [:@]. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 Okies, up to 50/50 in half a day... 1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 70% now. One to watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 Yeppem...it's developing much faster than the weather wizards expected. 1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA REMAINS DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 Even more... 1. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 80% and counting... 1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENNISULA. RECENT SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW REMAINS QUITE BROAD WITH A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS DISTURBANCE DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 90 now. Looks like it may be well east of us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 Wouldn't put any bets on where it's headed just yet. Really depends on this high that is just building over us. 1. BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DATA...AND PRELIMINARY RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IF THE PLANE IS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE SEE MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Richard Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 http://www.beaumontweather.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daddy Dee Posted June 23, 2012 Share Posted June 23, 2012 Most of Arkansas is in a severe drought situation. Drifting to the NE a bit would be helpful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 Well, looks like at least some chance of good rain for us... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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