Mallette Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 Now it's getting serious. BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012 ...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 87.3W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...2 TO 4 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 My wife and I had planned on being at Avery Island on Tue and Wed. I'm glad we changed our plans and are going west instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel Posted June 24, 2012 Moderators Share Posted June 24, 2012 My wife and I had planned on being at Avery Island on Tue and Wed. I'm glad we changed our plans and are going west instead. Been thinking about going there also, but not this week, we want to visit the Tabasco plant.[] Looks like they changed the track again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 Given the unpredictability of the steering currents I think we'll see constantly changing landfall predictions up until it happens. Anybody who wants it can have the eye as long as we get some rain... It would be VERY unusual for this one to get past cat 2 at this time of year. OTOH, I still see an occasional "Cat 2 My ***..." tshirt around here refering to Ike. However, if I were forced to bet I'd suggest Cat 1 or even TS at landfall. Only time will tell. Bet the New Orleans Corps folks are at church this morning. [li] Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 My wife and I had planned on being at Avery Island on Tue and Wed. I'm glad we changed our plans and are going west instead. Been thinking about going there also, but not this week, we want to visit the Tabasco plant. Looks like they changed the track again. That's actually where we were going. There's also a pretty cool bed and breakfast pretty close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhoak Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 The rain has finally let up here. 26 straight hours of steady rain with a few really heavy bands moving through. I'm not complaining though. It's been pretty dry around here for a couple of months now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 WOW, what a change of predicted path in the last few hours.http://null/?5-daynl?large#contents'> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel Posted June 24, 2012 Moderators Share Posted June 24, 2012 WOW, what a change of predicted path in the last few hours.http://null/?5-daynl?large#contents'> I like the one before this one, at least for rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel Posted June 24, 2012 Moderators Share Posted June 24, 2012 Mallette; It would be VERY unusual for this one to get past cat 2 at this time of year. OTOH, I still see an occasional "Cat 2 My ***..." tshirt around here refering to Ike. However, if I were forced to bet I'd suggest Cat 1 or even TS at landfall. Only time will tell. Your probably exactly right Bet the New Orleans Corps folks are at church this morning. They should be after all the tripping over each other last time not having at least some plan or idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhoak Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 A few of the models have it making another hard right turn and coming back across Florida. There's a high pressure ridge developing that could steer it back to the east. Go to the NOAA Hurricane Center page and read the "discussion" section. They really don't have any idea what direction it's going to head. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Well, looks like that high that Isaac thought prevented hurricanes (and it does, to a point...) from hitting us will win the day. It was close. REALLY could have used the rain. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhoak Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 At 4:14 yesterday afternoon I wrote that the rain had let up. I spoke too soon. It started back up with a vengance just minutes later.As of 09:00 this morning I've had 43 straight hours of rain. My 6" rain gauge filled up sometime yesterday morning so I have no idea what the total is. No signs of letting up any time soon.A tornado touched down 2 houses down from my sister's house in Winter Haven. Not a lot of damage but pretty scary.It's been pretty dry for a while around here and we need the rain but I'm ready for Debby to "bless" another area.The morning guys at the local FM station that I listen to had BIG fun with "Debby does Lakeland" this morning. This shot is looking across the lake that my sister's house is on: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Well, I've lost interest in the wuss. Let a little ol Texas high push it around...sheesh. However, it certain remains interested in Jeff, Marshal, and those in the upper part of Florida. Complaints about too much rain don't cut it in Texas. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Now they have it heading due east. They really don't have a handle on this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJkizak Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 This one might be possessed by the Devil himself kind of like "Christine". JJK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhoak Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I'm curious to see what becomes of it once it leaves FL and gets back over warm water. Hopefully the trip across FL weakens it enough that it won't reform, strengthen and cause problems for someone else. In the mean time I'm now at 49.5 hours of continous rain. Based on the current predicted track we're possibly looking at another 72 hours of rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel Posted June 25, 2012 Moderators Share Posted June 25, 2012 Yep it looks like your in for a couple of days of rain, at least. It seems every time you look at the predicted path it's different, it may cross Florida go around Cuba and head back to Texas before it's done, who knows ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 It seems every time you look at the predicted path it's different, it may cross Florida go around Cuba and head back to Texas before it's done Purdy pleeze! Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 I second that if it can make it to the north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2point1 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Up by gatorville, so far about 7 1/2 - 8 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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