Poll & Prediction: Autonomous Car Equipment at 5k by 2019

[Mallette]

Certainly no offense intended to richlieb.  I've no passion about this other than anxiousness to move faster and safer on the roads...and be able to be independent when I no longer feel competent to drive.  Actually, all the AV developments make me feel incompetent to drive right now.  

 

Dave

[DrWho]

On 1/24/2018 at 2:18 PM, dwilawyer said:

You got spoiled driving my Jag @DrWho

Your standards for luxury cars are way too high now.😀

Jaaaaaag - haha, good times. That should definitely be on that list too.

[DrWho]

On 1/23/2018 at 12:04 AM, vasubandu said:

I have never really cared for it.  And nice to hear you say Evora.  Wouldn't that be sweet.

 

I have an Elise as a daily driver....I've had my eye on the Evora for the last year or so as my spine continues to compress from the brutal Chicago potholes. I absolutely love my car to death, but my body is starting to wear out, haha. I hear the Evora is bit more civilized - not to mention easier to get in and out.

[DrWho]

On 1/23/2018 at 9:59 PM, Jeff Matthews said:

Seems like information that important ought to at least be on the window sticker.  It's interesting that this is a known issue, and still, it's allowed on the road.  I guess you gotta test, but sounds a bit dangerous if that parked car was full of kids.

And that precisely is my issue.....this level of autonomy is simply just dangerous because it inherently creates a false sense of security. There is no human awareness to how blind the system really is. No amount of manuals / warnings is going to overcome that psychological reality - and this is why anyone in the know considers this level of autonomy so dangerous. And why does this happen? Money. That's what makes me so sick. The marketing at Tesla is strong, and people are willing to justify death to defend a sexy cool image. Yes, shame on the people for not following directions - but our overly litigated world causes us to ignore such insane warnings - especially when they contradict with our perception of reality. And that perception is not the fault of the driver....especially in light of all the ridiculous marketing and social narrative surrounding this obnoxious ignorant feature.

[DrWho]

On 1/23/2018 at 10:04 PM, Mallette said:

But once the software is fixed, that particular issue is no longer possible...

...and therein lies the false myth of "fix it in software". No Tesla on the road has sensor systems sufficient enough to actually solve the problem....which means the issue is forever possible.

 

I don't think people realize just how blind these systems really are....

[JJkizak]

8 minutes ago, DrWho said:

...and therein lies the false myth of "fix it in software". No Tesla on the road has sensor systems sufficient enough to actually solve the problem....which means the issue is forever possible.

 

I don't think people realize just how blind these systems really are....

 

If the old Western Electric/Bell Labs came up with a system I would trust that.

JJK

[richieb]

1 minute ago, DrWho said:

...and therein lies the false myth of "fix it in software". No Tesla on the road has sensor systems sufficient enough to actually solve the problem....which means the issue is forever possible.

 

I don't think people realize just how blind these systems really are....

 

Just think of the billions of minute scenarios we encounter in years of driving. There is no one who has the insight and forethought to "program" this to a system. Riding a motorcycle for some 45 years has made a much safer and more aware driver. While riding I watch the other car, if the front tires begin to roll, is the driver looking in my direction, is his hand beginning to move for a lane change and on and on. Program those defensive techniques, I doubt it.

And Dave I have nothing against new tech but for Gawd sake lets don't put the cart before the horse just to show its possible. Sure it's possible but to what % of perfection needed? 

[Jeff Matthews]

9 minutes ago, DrWho said:

...and therein lies the false myth of "fix it in software". No Tesla on the road has sensor systems sufficient enough to actually solve the problem....which means the issue is forever possible.

 

I don't think people realize just how blind these systems really are....

I know little about current capabilities, but the process is very complex.  Can it recognize the difference between a water puddle and a mirage?  Will it just blow through spilled oil on the road?  

 

I can see how it "thought" the stationary fire truck was just part of the horizon.

[DrWho]

17 hours ago, vasubandu said:

@Mallette the point is the an autonomous car can driver better than any person under any circumstances.  That is a fact, but we live in a world where 85% of people think they are above average drivers, and convincing them that a computer can driver better is going to be a challenge.

While that's very true that everyone thinks they're a good driver, I would gladly challenge any AV to a holistic driving skill challenge. I'd put significant money down that I will be faster around a track, have faster reaction times to unexpected obstacles, and make better moral decisions. The AV might win a parking competition, although that will still be a fairly close race. I will be able to outmaneuver an AV in city traffic and on difficult mountain roads....even if the majority of cars on the road are AVs. Come up with any list of scenarios and the top 10% of drivers in the world are going to be better than an AV.

 

That's not to say those drivers might not want an AV for a long boring drive through Iowa or Nebraska, but the peak driving skill will still be dominated by humans. If for no other reason that you can't develop an algoirthm that is better than your own understanding of vehicle dynamics - and if you've ever tried to automate vehicle dynamics, you'll notice that sensors are the limiting factor, and there are too many scenarios to hard-code around those limitations - never mind the cost-effectiveness constraints.

[Jeff Matthews]

2 minutes ago, richieb said:

 

Just think of the billions of minute scenarios we encounter in years of driving. There is no one who has the insight and forethought to "program" this to a system. Riding a motorcycle for some 45 years has made a much safer and more aware driver. While riding I watch the other car, if the front tires begin to roll, is the driver looking in my direction, is his hand beginning to move for a lane change and on and on. Program those defensive techniques, I doubt it.

And Dave I have nothing against new tech but for Gawd sake lets don't put the cart before the horse just to show its possible. Sure it's possible but to what % of perfection needed? 

We describe some similar things.  

 

I still look forward to auto-piloted cars.  I can see how managed lanes would work very well with them.  

[DrWho]

8 minutes ago, richieb said:

 

Just think of the billions of minute scenarios we encounter in years of driving. There is no one who has the insight and forethought to "program" this to a system. Riding a motorcycle for some 45 years has made a much safer and more aware driver. While riding I watch the other car, if the front tires begin to roll, is the driver looking in my direction, is his hand beginning to move for a lane change and on and on. Program those defensive techniques, I doubt it.

And Dave I have nothing against new tech but for Gawd sake lets don't put the cart before the horse just to show its possible. Sure it's possible but to what % of perfection needed? 

I was just thinking about this, and did want to throw a shout out for machine learning.....which is still a relatively new field, and way over-hyped. Regardless, an autonomous system with machine learning would have the benefit of sharing those experiences with every car in the fleet. This may be one of the reason Waymo has the best chance of success....because Google is probably the leading front runner in machine learning technology. I wonder how long it'd take to refine the learning algorithms across millions of cars before it started to compete with the culmination of your driving experience?

 

Also consider that your current state of experience wasn't true some 45 years ago. We all had to start out fresh at some point.

 

What I think will happen is that there will be all this hype around AV's....we'll wait years for them to fix it in software before we realize that we need to fix our infrastructure first. I wouldn't be surprised if the baggage we have with our infrastructure wouldn't result in Africa becoming the leading economic power in a hundred years or so....fresh clean slate and tons of untapped resources.

[DrWho]

19 minutes ago, JJkizak said:

 

If the old Western Electric/Bell Labs came up with a system I would trust that.

Haha, it'd also be a four million dollar car if they did one.

 

Where did all those guys end up? I've only ever heard great things about their engineering teams.

[Mallette]

54 minutes ago, DrWho said:

...and therein lies the false myth of "fix it in software". No Tesla on the road has sensor systems sufficient enough to actually solve the problem....which means the issue is forever possible.

 

I don't think people realize just how blind these systems really are....

Odd, why would it work so well on aircraft and so many other systems and not here.  But, no need to respond since your denial flies in the face of already established fact.  If you choose to disbelieve feel free.  Millions don't believe the climate is warming, but it doesn't change the observable fact that it is.  BTW, let's don't get off on that as it seems to lead to locked threads.  

 

Dave

[Mallette]

48 minutes ago, richieb said:

Sure it's possible but to what % of perfection needed? 

Already saving lives and property damage.  But you won't hear about that in the press for a while.  I have one good friend who was momentarily distracted using only lane control and auto braking and declares he'd have rear ended the car in front of him on a Houston freeway without it.  Point is that the person in front was also saved death, injury, or property damage.  That's why I've come to realize that manual control may be allowed...if you insist on paying for the insurance...longer than I anticipated. 

It's happening already and DOT projections based on their recording of these events leads them to project ever decreasing death and injury rates from now on as AV tech is deployed.  Folks, it's science, not a matter of what you believe.  

 

Dave

[Jeff Matthews]

1 hour ago, Mallette said:

Millions don't believe the climate is warming, but it doesn't change the observable fact that it is.  BTW, let's don't get off on that as it seems to lead to locked threads.  

Ha ha!  Isn't that funny?  Debates about climate result in locked threads, and debates about the viability of autonomy don't.  It just goes to show how people are conditioned to debate in a rather "fixed" sort of way based upon the subject matter itself.

[Mallette]

That one goes south because there politicians come up, along with their opinions.  So far, I've not heard any politicians opinions about AVs, nor do I care to.  

 

Dave

[Jeff Matthews]

13 minutes ago, Mallette said:

That one goes south because there politicians come up, along with their opinions.

It kind of makes my point, doesn't it?

[Mallette]

I am just saying that this is MY thread and won't be locked.  I've been moderating long enough to have noticed that we have some who get threads locked they don't like or that they disagree with by insisting on politicizing them.  I'll hide posts, and give warning points to anyone trying that here.  

 

Dave

[Jeff Matthews]

1 minute ago, Mallette said:

I am just saying that this is MY thread and won't be locked.  I've been moderating long enough to have noticed that we have some who get threads locked they don't like or that they disagree with by insisting on politicizing them.  I'll hide posts, and give warning points to anyone trying that here.  

 

Dave

Bullet-Proof, Dave?

 

Just kidding.  I wasn't poking at this thread.  I was just observing how people can argue and be civil... that is, until you pick a topic that the media has trained them to lose civility over.  People really are just like parrots.

[Mallette]

2 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Just kidding.  I wasn't poking at this thread.  I was just observing how people can argue and be civil... that is, until you pick a topic that the media has trained them to lose civility over.  People really are just like parrots.

Indeed.

Dave