Poll & Prediction: Autonomous Car Equipment at 5k by 2019

[Mallette]

53 minutes ago, Gilbert said:

Maybe, just maybe,  it might be due to the barage of unproven, over-exagerated and mis-represented claims by Space X....... but I could be wrong. Maybe you're on to some new info following the 3rd test model run.

None of my info about Hyperloop is from SpaceX.  They have no interest and provided all the specs to the concept to those interested.  I don't recall SpaceX EVER making any claims about Hyperloop.

 

Dave

[Travis In Austin]

4 minutes ago, Mallette said:

And works perfectly.  

 

Truly amazing technology.  If you have proof the 3 percent figure is a lie, let me know.  

Dave

Well you have never lied, about anything, in the 15 plus years I have known you.

 

I am sure you saw it in a reputable source somewhere, it would be more a question of whether the source got it right.

[Travis In Austin]

8 minutes ago, Mallette said:

And works perfectly.  

 

Truly amazing technology. 

Dave

Thanks to Lockheed.  

 

"On May 25, 1972, veteran test pilots Anthony LeVier and Charles Hall transported 115 crew members, employees, and reporters on a 4-hour, 13- minute flight from Palmdale, California, to Dulles Airport outside Washington, D.C., with the TriStar’s AFCS feature engaged from takeoff roll to landing. It was a groundbreaking moment: the first cross-country flight without the need for human hands on the controls. Fly-by-wire technology was here to stay."

 

And so are pilots and co-pilots for the foreseeable future.

[muel]

On 1/15/2018 at 1:28 PM, vasubandu said:

 

Haven't you heard?  If someone is hurt or dies, it must be their fault.  The machines never make mistakes.

Yeah, I imagine that the AGV that crushed my coworker to death made no mistakes and did exactly as programmed.  

 

It's tough work trying to get to 100% safe but I'm sure they will think of everything.

 

 

[vasubandu]

@muel I hope you know I was being sarcastic.  At the same time, these machines are being held so high right now, that I bet when they screw up, people will be blamed first.

[vasubandu]

You know the funny thing is that right now, nothing could be the machine's fault or the computer's fault.  They just do what we tell them to, so the mistake has to be with the person in control.  But with artificial instructions, the computers will give the instructions, write the software used to get the instructions and design the processors that run the computer.  There will not a person in the room to blame.  Driving a car will be no problem for those machines.  We are close to the point or have already passed it where a computer or machine can do everything better than a person.

[Khornukopia]

4 hours ago, dwilawyer said:

I'd settle for an autonomous bartender and a Uber driver at this point.

 

The autonomous bartenders lack personality, but they are precise.

 

 

[joshnich]

Just saw my first s3 on the road today. Mighty fine looking car. We will more than likely put our deposit down on one so that we will be inline when the lease on our 75D comes up. Not sure at this point if it would make sense to get the 3 or to re-lease the S. 

I haven’t read all of the pages here so I’m not sure of  the rationale of the Tesla bashing. I have owned a number of BMWs a few Alfa’s. A few Mercedes and Porsche’s. None can march the build quality of the Tesla. Yes more volts will be sold but since when does that mean anything.   

 

 

[Jeff Matthews]

9 hours ago, vasubandu said:

We are close to the point or have already passed it where a computer or machine can do everything better than a person.

Not even close.  Have a computer write a #1 hit, write a story-line, come up with a new joke, score the winning touchdown, etc.

[CECAA850]

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/01/why-analysts-put-gm-and-waymo-far-ahead-of-tesla-in-driverless-car-race/

[JJkizak]

4 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Not even close.  Have a computer write a #1 hit, write a story-line, come up with a new joke, score the winning touchdown, etc.

 

The closest computer to a human is a IBM Watson but even then all the commands have to be hand typed in because of the problems with voice recognition.

JJK

[Mallette]

12 hours ago, dwilawyer said:

And so are pilots and co-pilots for the foreseeable future.

I agree...but it is human nature, not issues with automation, as well as the fact that the very high cost of equipment and infrastructure makes the crew less of a cost factor than a truck driver, railroad engineer, or bus driver.  One AVs become common it will spread more rapidly as people learn to trust it.  My drone already makes better landings than I can.  

 

Dave

[Mallette]

2 hours ago, JJkizak said:

The closest computer to a human is a IBM Watson but even then all the commands have to be hand typed in because of the problems with voice recognition.

JJK

Consider how old Watson is now and how fast things change.  I suspect Watson is now doing things they really don't want to talk about.  I am certain that a medical Watson could diagnose and prescribe for the vast majority of common ailments far more accurately and efficiently than a doctor or nurse practitioner...but rather doubt the AMA is going to push it soon as it means lost money.  Case in point:  When I descended into late onset type 1 diabetes, I stopped at a doc in the box and he sent me off with a diagnoses of URI with antibiotics.  Good grief...I was in the ER a few hours later in critical condition.  Should have sued that outfit into the poorhouse as my wife, a former nurse, had her doubts at the time but went with his diagnoses since he was a doctor.  I really doubt Dr. Watson would have made that error.

Dave

[richieb]

Where is the responsibility to the consumer from the auto makers for the continuing and particularly over the holidays the relentless schlepping of automobiles knowing full well what lies ahead? If they know this "revolution" (revulsion) is around the corner and all current cars and those they hype  for 2018 will, according to this thread,  be deemed near worthless where lies their responsibility to either inform or initiate buy back plans for the appearent scrap they are selling? Understood they are running multi-national corps with stockholders to answer but at what point will the millions that have recently purchased a car, then be informed that sorry, can't use it 'round here anymore but we can sell you this nice new one albiet without a steering wheel. Another case of buyer beware? I can see a scenerio where the manufacturers won't be able to scrape the eggs from the their faces fast enough. . But that's ok, let Joe Public suffer, and should there be rough transition patch good old Uncle Sam will be there for yet another bailout.

[Mallette]

Dang, richieb, are you suggesting these people are profit, rather than philanthropically, motivated?    Those being sold now will likely make a reasonable service life.  I think it clear that it would not be overly expensive and would certainly make sense for them to provide the underpinnings such that new cars from now on might be upgradable to AV...but don't hold your breath.  These folks relish the idea of selling as many as possible now and replacing them in a few years.  OTOH, as personal transport becomes a commodity rather than a social status symbol, their long term future is not so good.  Given that electric motors have an indefinite life span and most other things can be made standardized and modular on these cars there will be eventual pressure to make them nearly permanent and reparable.  Yet another part of the huge paradigm shift in the works.

Dave

[CECAA850]

22 minutes ago, Mallette said:

OTOH, as personal transport becomes a commodity rather than a social status symbol,

Are you thinking the 1 percenters will have the same AV as you and I?  There will always be a status element associated with any type of transportation.  EDIT, personal transportation.

[Gilbert]

14 hours ago, Mallette said:

None of my info about Hyperloop is from SpaceX.  They have no interest and provided all the specs to the concept to those interested.  I don't recall SpaceX EVER making any claims about Hyperloop.

 

Dave

They are, and they have.

[Mallette]

54 minutes ago, Gilbert said:

They are, and they have.

I don't see it on the web, and it is stated in several places that Musk has no interest in it except as potential Mars surface transportation.  My guess is that he figures his existing businesses will finance the BFR and Mars and so it would simply be a distraction.  His interest in money is only in financing human colonization of Mars.  Certainly counter-intuitive to most of our experiences but he appears to be an exception.  

 

Dave

[Mallette]

1 hour ago, CECAA850 said:

Are you thinking the 1 percenters will have the same AV as you and I?

Good grief, Carl.  Do YOU try to look like a one percenter???  By social status I meant the vast majority of us.  There'll still be plenty of room for staying ahead of the Joneses, but a fancy personal AV will be sign of waste for the vast majority of us, not a sign a plenty.  Sort of like buying a seat on a bus...  

 

Dave

[CECAA850]

1 minute ago, Mallette said:

Do YOU try to look like a one percenter???

No but the 1%ers do.