oldtimer Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 2 hours ago, HDBRbuilder said: I can just see the Amish in self-driven horse buggies.. Everything would be so nice Living in an Amish paradise... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJkizak Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 11 hours ago, oldtimer said: Everything would be so nice Living in an Amish paradise... Did you ever see 400 Amish guys pick up a barn and move it? JJK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnA Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 I am not giving up the pleasure of driving myself down a road like 89A into Jerome, AZ or the Cherohala Skyway in NC in a 2-seat convertible at 3/4 Impulse. OTOH, I have wished for an autopilot for long drives on the Interstate for years. If it's switchable, I'll take a self-driving car, *IF* I can have a stick shift. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted January 25, 2018 Author Share Posted January 25, 2018 John, I have re-thought things and suspect manual driving may be preserved on a lot of roads of the type you are talking about. Once the tech in UA has a few hundred million user miles and corrections...which will not take very long...even the most determined maniac would be unlikely to be able to hit a AV. So, no reason not to share. OTOH, AVs will not have any speed limits or stop signs to deal with, but manual drivers will. I suspect all manual vehicles will have a tamper-proof black box that broadcasts the fact that the vehicle is under human control such that both police and AVs are aware of their presence. Seems fair enough, and workable, to me. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vasubandu Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 2 hours ago, JohnA said: I am not giving up the pleasure of driving myself down a road like 89A into Jerome, AZ or the Cherohala Skyway in NC in a 2-seat convertible at 3/4 Impulse. OTOH, I have wished for an autopilot for long drives on the Interstate for years. If it's switchable, I'll take a self-driving car, *IF* I can have a stick shift. You will pay a very steep price to drive your own car because you present a risk to everyone else. I even saw one person predicting $100,000 per year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 12 minutes ago, vasubandu said: You will pay a very steep price to drive your own car because you present a risk to everyone else. I even saw one person predicting $100,000 per year. People will drive their own vehicle regardless of fine or penalty. Once parts aren't available for non AV's they'll die a natural death. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted January 25, 2018 Author Share Posted January 25, 2018 23 minutes ago, vasubandu said: You will pay a very steep price to drive your own car because you present a risk to everyone else. I even saw one person predicting $100,000 per year. We'll see. Actually, rates should go DOWN as AVs will be able to react and respond to threats far better than humans and only the enthusiasts will choose to risk themselves and their families to manual driving. We do it now as there is no choice. Once there is a choice that's a thousand times safer I think even those horse loving enthusiasts will think twice except perhaps on roads like John was talking about and even then only to demonstrate to their terrified grandchildren what life in the "old days" was like. Even my 16 year old son gets it and realizes that he won't be driving for more than 10 years. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vasubandu Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 That is the point. Cars can be erratic in ways that cannot be predicted or reacted to. I get the point and hope that areas will be set aside to drive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted January 25, 2018 Author Share Posted January 25, 2018 47 minutes ago, vasubandu said: Cars can be erratic in ways that cannot be predicted or reacted to Yes, but AVs don't go through the "shit, what's he doing? I gotta get out of the way..." process followed by what may or may not be the best action. They react immediately and are limited only by the speed of electricity and the mechanical components they need to react. I think you should be confident that many roads that a driving enthusiast would want to drive will remain open to manual driving. While I've had all the driving I ever need over my lifetime, I am not concerned about those who wish to drive as safety hazards as I believe the AV systems will keep me safe from even the drunkest idiot on the road. Certainly better than I can, anyway. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vasubandu Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 @Mallette the point is the an autonomous car can driver better than any person under any circumstances. That is a fact, but we live in a world where 85% of people think they are above average drivers, and convincing them that a computer can driver better is going to be a challenge. But adding people-driven cars to the mix is just too dangerous for everyone else. We can set aside areas where people can drive for amusement, but they need to stay the hell off roads with people. I hope we do not have a blended time because it will be a mess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted January 25, 2018 Author Share Posted January 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, vasubandu said: I hope we do not have a blended time because it will be a mess. We will have such a time, I am quite sure. The reactions here suggest that. However, the dangers manual control will present to the rest of us will still be massively reduced by our AVs being able to react to things a magnitude faster and more correctly will still be a huge advantage. And eventually, the diehards will die off. One person said early on in this thread that "They'd pry my cold, dead hands from my steering wheel" to which I promptly replied "Little doubt of that. Happens every day many times right now." Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vasubandu Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 Your point that you would still be safer is well taken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnA Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 A little bit of he said/it said, but sombody's fear, above, is here. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/01/25/after-crash-injured-motorcyclist-accuses-robot-driven-vehicle-of-negligent-driving/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 hour ago, JohnA said: A little bit of he said/it said, but sombody's fear, above, is here. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/01/25/after-crash-injured-motorcyclist-accuses-robot-driven-vehicle-of-negligent-driving/ Collateral damage of the learning curve. There'll be more. Lots more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted January 26, 2018 Author Share Posted January 26, 2018 Oh, there will be more. Lots of bugs to be worked out, but, as opposed to the same accident that occurs hundreds of times per day under human control this one will likely never occur again as the lesson learned will be added to the code. There will be more of these, including fatal ones, as the kinks are worked out. But they will occur at FAR less rates than with human drivers and every one will be added to the code such that it becomes extremely unlikely that it happen again. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muel Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 25 minutes ago, Mallette said: Oh, there will be more. Lots of bugs to be worked out, but, as opposed to the same accident that occurs hundreds of times per day under human control this one will likely never occur again as the lesson learned will be added to the code. There will be more of these, including fatal ones, as the kinks are worked out. But they will occur at FAR less rates than with human drivers and every one will be added to the code such that it becomes extremely unlikely that it happen again. Dave I don't think it becomes "extremely unlikely" quite that fast. It's an ongoing process that will be fraught with problems followed by more fixes. I do have a difficulty with all of this though... I'll summarize... I can live (assuming I do) with my own mistakes easier than I can accept the mistakes of others and even much less can I tolerate the mistakes of machine (designed and built by others who are not even present at the scene of the mistake except as evidenced by their failure). I hope it is obvious that I would loath the drunk who jumps behind the wheel more than a engineer doing his/her best to design a safety feature but manufacturers seem to often have attitudes of "safe enough" and "acceptable rates" that is a whole other level of detestable. That said, money IS an object and there ARE limits. Striving for a culture where we continually strive for better who knows what we might accomplish. If this all comes to fruition as you think, Dave, we might just have to find new ways to kill ourselves off... and we likely will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 The general public will be the guinea pigs for the manufactures just as they are now only the stakes will be higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richieb Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 In the above scenario a driver at the wheel of a " normal" car might have reacted to the bike and avoided the incident. But I do think I'll suggest to my Grandkids that the degree to seek is software engineering and law degree. And when these things are creating havoc and showing their programming errors by the thousands of fender benders the lawyer/software engineer will have all the answers. Oh goody - more lawsuits in our already litigious society. I guess these can be the jobs filled by those millions now unemployed in the general automotive market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted January 26, 2018 Author Share Posted January 26, 2018 richlieb, your incredible pessimism and disbelief in technology is beyond response. Believe as you will. Neither of our beliefs will have ANY impact on what is happening. But either as a passenger in a car...or the driver of a motorcycle...I place my bet I'm a hundred times safer right now and a thousand times safer within a few years than manual driving. And my own record is pristine. But I consider it pure luck as I am constantly confronted with my own mistakes, and those of others, that could easily result in injury or death. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muel Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 I don't think his thoughts are necessarily disbelief in technology but how it is going to unfold and our cultural response. Belief does influence how we respond which does impact the direction society takes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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