Jim Naseum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't know if the official economic reports are being doctored or what but we're not exactly in a big boom it seems. 1. Dig into how the unemployment rate is reported. There are many values from U5 to U6 to the "Official" rate. There are certainly people counted in each one. The important thing being that once people drop off the unemployment roles due to frustration or lack of job, they no longer count on any stats. 2. When they report the number of new jobs, you have to look deeply to see what kind of jobs. For the most part, the new jobs are cheap service jobs at minimum wage with no benefits. Not jobs that support "new household creation." Over 50% of 25 year olds are now living with their parents. That is not a good economic sign. 3. Pay more attention to "Labor Participation Rate" than the unemployment rate. Participation in the job market is falling steadily. That is the real measure of employment that matters, and it is bad. When you put this all together, the economy is teetering on recession. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 When they report the number of new jobs, you have to look deeply to see what kind of jobs. For the most part, the new jobs are cheap service jobs at minimum wage with no benefits. Not jobs that support "new household creation." Over 50% of 25 year olds are now living with their parents. That is not a good economic sign. I agree with this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karsoncookie Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 And now ... A quick word from our sponsor ............. ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, --- Vinyl lovers- Don't miss the first 4 seconds--- Now back to our Featured Program...... Lars 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 When they report the number of new jobs, you have to look deeply to see what kind of jobs. For the most part, the new jobs are cheap service jobs at minimum wage with no benefits. Not jobs that support "new household creation." Over 50% of 25 year olds are now living with their parents. That is not a good economic sign. I agree with this. Already? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karsoncookie Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Did anyone spot the Sneaky Sock Changer?? Hint - Mr. Deeds, Lars Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Did anyone spot the Sneaky Sock Changer?? Hint - Mr. Deeds, Lars The OP's question was: What is going on with this economy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfbane Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So financially most people in the US are down about 10% over the last few days of trading?.............................................. Only those with skin in the game, so less than half in the US are affected, and this is really only of consequence to those who sold or are selling in a panic. Cheaper gas, cheaper groceries, cheaper energy, so there is a bright side that will affect everyone. The markets are not the economy. There were considerably less people in both absolute and per capita terms in the stock market when it crashed in 1929. In spite of this there was a world wide Depression. The Great Depression was directly a result of that market's fall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 (edited) Take a gander at this: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART How can the economy possibly grow as the number of workers plummets? Edited January 21, 2016 by jo56steph74 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karsoncookie Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sorry to Metro - Me bad- I thought it was " the interest is up and the stock market's down... I'll go back under my warm binky now. Lars Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Markets are barometers measuring the future economic "weather." The big drop in the stock market is telling you the future economy is not as good as the present. Job losses, asset losses, recession, possibly even depression are the "storms" that these falling barometers are predicting. Small drops predict nothing. Long, sustained drops, especially those past the correction phase, are serious storms coming. Oil prices will begin to wipe out jobs in the energy sector, and produce defaults on debt. All bad. We may settle out here for just a correction. That would be the good news. Otherwise, Katy bar the door. We could have a long slog, and more QE is highly unlikely to be effective. Countermeasures? Massive stimulus spending; massive infrastructure investment coming direct from the FED. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 When they report the number of new jobs, you have to look deeply to see what kind of jobs. For the most part, the new jobs are cheap service jobs at minimum wage with no benefits. Not jobs that support "new household creation." Over 50% of 25 year olds are now living with their parents. That is not a good economic sign. I agree with this. Already? It is what it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ski Bum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Serious storms, or opportunities. Depends on how you look at it. (Why so myopic, josteph?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Serious storms, or opportunities. Depends on how you look at it. (Why so myopic, josteph?)Which are the opportunities you refer to? Being a short seller? Sent from my SM-T330NU using Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karsoncookie Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So, I see no one appreciated my intermission / brief respite. OK, sighhh. Lars Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SkiB um - I am guessing you are referring to investment opportunity as opposed to economic conditions. You are certainly right that a crashing market is the same to an investor opportunity wise as a rising one. And many fortunes have been made that way. But most people that I know or have any relations with are working people and for them what counts is jobs, wages, prices, and economic stability. So, most of my comments are about that, not investing. Buy some put options on Chipotle? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 No. Live beneath your means. Save the excess. Own your own home. Or live in a place with way cheaper rent than you can afford. Then you can make your small fortune (or at least a decent retirement) by investing with intelligence and not emotion. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 No. Live beneath your means. Save the excess. Own your own home. Or live in a place with way cheaper rent than you can afford. Then you can make your small fortune (or at least a decent retirement) by investing with intelligence and not emotion. Check.Check.Check..until the last idea. Investing as an amateur is still fraught with the problem of rigged markets. Agreed, that most people "buying the DOW" with their spare change will do well over a 30 year period, but they are always subject to the effects of "bad timing." A long bear market just when they need the money the most can be a nasty problem. Back in the day when a person could make 7% on long term insured certificates, and 10% on AAA Bonds, you didn't have to take any risk in your old age. That didn't end by accident, right? Now everyone is forced to shovel their savings into equities and pray (Whoops! I mean 'meditate' - you can't refer to religion here). I'd say of your list - which I like - the most important is to live well below your means. In 1950 the average size house for a family of four was 950 square feet. Today it is well over 2,000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow#422 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 In order to grow wealth in an essentially ZERO % insured market, one must swim in the inherently more risky pool of equities or other such risk rich vehicles. Corporate profits are shrinking due highly to the stronger dollar. Global debt, although fueling growth is an issue that isn't going away. That debt WILL come due & constantly reissuing it over longer periods of time does not relieve it from being owed. The piper will eventually need to be paid ! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Unless you are Argentina. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 In order to grow wealth in an essentially ZERO % insured market, one must swim in the inherently more risky pool of equities or other such risk rich vehicles. Corporate profits are shrinking due highly to the stronger dollar. Global debt, although fueling growth is an issue that isn't going away. That debt WILL come due & constantly reissuing it over longer periods of time does not relieve it from being owed. The piper will eventually need to be paid ! For Serious Discussion: The 0% interest policy is an engineered genocide of the elderly - whose maintenance cost exceeds their economic utility. I wonder how many (intelligent or informed) people can see this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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