Paducah Home Theater Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 https://ca.news.yahoo.com/watch-u-recession-zero-interest-rates-china-next-123111939--sector.html "The cumulative probability of U.S. recession reaches 65 percent next year," Citi's rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday. "Curve inversion will likely come more quickly than the consensus thinks." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Travis In Austin Posted December 2, 2015 Moderators Share Posted December 2, 2015 Well, I guess we will have to see if there is an inversion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 From Investopedia... While experts question whether or not an inverted yield curve remains a strong indicator of pending economic recession, keep in mind that history is littered with portfolios that were devastated when investors blindly followed predictions about how "it's different this time." Most recently, shortsighted equity investors spouting this mantra participated in the "tech wreck," snapping up shares in tech companies at inflated prices even though these firms had no hope of ever making a profit.Read more: The Impact Of An Inverted Yield Curve http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/06/invertedyieldcurve.asp#ixzz3tCE7NZV6 Follow us: Investopedia on Facebook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Travis In Austin Posted December 3, 2015 Moderators Share Posted December 3, 2015 Also from Investopieda: Historically, inversions of the yield curve have preceded many of the U.S. recessions. Due to this historical correlation, the yield curve is often seen as an accurate forecast of the turning points of the business cycle. A recent example is when the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted in 2000 just before the U.S. equity markets collapsed. An inverse yield curve predicts lower interest rates in the future as longer-term bonds are being demanded, sending the yields down. Read more: Inverted Yield Curve Definition | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/invertedyieldcurve.asp#ixzz3tCNUmsTD Follow us: Investopedia on Facebook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paducah Home Theater Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 (edited) This mess is just going to keep getting worse isn't it. "sell everything"... "brace for a 'cataclysmic year'” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12093807/RBS-cries-sell-everything-as-deflationary-crisis-nears.html $1 trillion, just gone http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/12/investing/stocks-lose-1-trillion-2016/index.html "time to stash cash" http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/12/its-time-to-stash-cash-portfolio-manager.html Edited January 12, 2016 by MetropolisLakeOutfitters Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJkizak Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 (edited) This mess is just going to keep getting worse isn't it. "sell everything"... "brace for a 'cataclysmic year'” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12093807/RBS-cries-sell-everything-as-deflationary-crisis-nears.html $1 trillion, just gone http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/12/investing/stocks-lose-1-trillion-2016/index.html "time to stash cash" http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/12/its-time-to-stash-cash-portfolio-manager.html $1 Trillion gone---not really gone, just left the market into someone else's pocket. JJK Edited January 12, 2016 by JJKIZAK 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paducah Home Theater Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 dude. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/15/a-recession-worse-than-2008-is-coming-commentary.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It's all noise. Stay diversified and keep saving/investing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow#422 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 DJIA is being projected to lose 80% for 2016? Not likely. It's all noise. Stay diversified and keep saving/investing. Diversify, invest slowly, and dollar cost average. Don't just jump in thinking the bottom is here, average your purchases over time. Think long term and you'll do fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wvu80 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 He must be selling short I have a feeling Trump is more invested in real estate than the stock market. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Real estate is part of the diversification process. Owning your own home (not you and the bank, but just you) is equal to owning bonds, except that over the past several years, it has actually been better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow#422 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 (edited) The economic markets are simply in reset mode after years of FED over-spending & false support. Profit taking isn't bad. Interest rates have been driven way too low, and the dollar has been held purposely weak for way too long. It is time for a reality check - whatever that may be. Only time will tell, unless the masses are led to believe another line of BS, and support it. Cash is king here, and debt is viewed as "the man's" meat hook right into your pocketbook. Caution advised. Edited January 20, 2016 by Arrow#422 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paducah Home Theater Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/12108569/World-faces-wave-of-epic-debt-defaults-fears-central-bank-veteran.html "Situation worse than it was in 2007, says chairman of the OECD's review committee" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow#422 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 (edited) The DJIA is "only" down 521 points right now. What are you BUYING, and if not, should you be? When the last bubble burst, nearly any dart thrown (money invested after the fallout) eventually made 30-50%. Edited January 20, 2016 by Arrow#422 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The bigger the party, the worse the hangover. A note to self. No one goes broke making a profit. When the markets hit an all time highs, take your earnings, step aside and let greed take the next guy down. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJkizak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What's my take on the market? Computers fighting each other for penny moves. JJK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The rich are done lining their pockets That would be historic and rather earth shaking news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paducah Home Theater Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's all noise. I'm not sure it is. Look at my second sentence in this thread: "What is going on with this economy? I could have told you just from the boots on the ground report that something is up" Something is up. I have sold utility trailers for 15 years and have memorized the seasonal peaks, but something is off. People aren't doing as well for whatever reason. I don't get as many calls and don't get many people willing to drive long distances, even though gas is at stupid low prices. It seems that other dealers have been experiencing about the same thing or else I'd think it was just me. I don't know if the official economic reports are being doctored or what but we're not exactly in a big boom it seems. When I try to look into it, all I find is grave economic warnings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJkizak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 No middle class, no economy. JJK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Naseum Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Old News Dept The US economy is 70% consumer spending and 30% government spending. If you take that as true, then: 1. Consumer spending can't grow because wages are shrinking in real dollars 2. Government spending can't grow because deficit hawks won't permit it. 3. If there is no growth, the stock market will fall until growth is restored. It's just that simple. The stock market "prices in future growth" - that's why there is a P/E ratio. When growth is good, the P/E ratio grows to a high multiple. When growth flattens, the P/E ratio falls because dividends (The "E" in the ratio) are not rising. When the stock market begins to unwind, a DEFLATION takes hold. That's a flat spin to the bottom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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