End of Hurricane Season - 2007

[Groomlakearea51]

OK........ HERE'S THE ONLY TRACK PATHS FOR THIS POTENTIAL "EVENT";

[jacksonbart]

This is more fun than CSPAN

[Groomlakearea51]

And in the let's confuse everyone category...... here's some track path model name explanations. Right now they are running BAM models until they can figure out what it's going to do.

The Beta and Advection Model (BAM) is a baroclinic-dynamical track prediction model. It produces a forecast track by following a trajectory in the vertically averaged horizontal wind starting at the current storm location out to 120 hours. The trajectory is corrected to account for the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude, the so-called Beta effect.

There are three versions of this model:

Shallow-layer (BAMS), Medium-layer (BAMM) Deeep-layer (BAMD).

BAMS runs using the 850-700 mb layer

BAMM with the 850-400 mb layer

BAMD with the 850-200 mb layer.

All three versions have been run four times per day since 1990.

OBTW, there are some USAF reconnaisance flights tomorrow that will look at this.

[Groomlakearea51]

This is more fun than CSPAN

And IMO, CSPAN is about the most boring thing ever broadcast!!! Thanks!!! Thanks Alot!!! LOL!!!! or [:'(] BTW, who was Brasky!!!! I gotta know!!!

[Groomlakearea51]

DEAN FIRST...

COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS ARE PREVENTING THE RECEIPT OF MOST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A 1930Z VORTEX FIX WAS RECEIVED. AT THAT TIME THE MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS 918 MB...WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 151 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 130 KT. ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND DEAN COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. A 15Z MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A PARTIAL OUTER EYEWALL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO INDUCE ANY WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT TRAVERSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN BEFORE ITS FINAL LANDFALL. DEAN IN EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TRACK BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTWARD- BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SOUTH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTHWARD. ALL THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS TAKE THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY OF DEAN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS A LEFTWARD BEND OF THE
TRACK AFTER FINAL LANDFALL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.2N 84.2W 130 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 18.5N 86.7W 140 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 19.3N 90.2W 75 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 22/0600Z 20.2N 93.6W 85 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 97.0W 95 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 21.5N 103.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[Groomlakearea51]

DEAN CONTINUED.... HERE'S THE MIL TRACK ESTIMATE. I HAVE FOUND THE MILITARY TRACK PATH TO BE A VERY, VERY GOOD MODEL AND WILL START POSTING IT ALONG WITH THE SUPERCOMPUTER ENSEMBLE TRACKPATHS (GFDL, BAMS, ETC) FOR THE FUTURE.

[Groomlakearea51]

HERE'S THE LATEST AVAILABLE MILSAT VISIBLE IMAGE

[Groomlakearea51]

MEANWHILE.... HERE'S THE "OTHER ONE".... MIL TRACK

[Groomlakearea51]

HERE'S THE VISIBLE IMAGE COMPOSITE DONE WITH AN F-14 RECON AIRCRAFT;

[Groomlakearea51]

HERE'S THE COMPOSITE VIEW. NOTE THE COLORED "BLOBS" THAT ARE THE 'CLUE' TO DEVELOPMENT.

[Groomlakearea51]

AND JUST WHEN YOU GOT COMFORTABLE WITH DEAN HEADED SOUTH.... THIS IS WHAT CERTAIN "SOURCES" SAY ABOUT THIS....

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.3N 54.7W TO 27.0N 65.8W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. 2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 54.7W HAS FORMED BENEATH INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN ANALYZED AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009MB.
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL DISORGANZIED. HOWEVER, AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEAK WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM, TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ENHANCED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

[Groomlakearea51]

HERE'S THE SEA SURFACE TEMPS THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT.....

[jacksonbart]

This is more fun than CSPAN

And IMO, CSPAN is about the most boring thing ever broadcast!!! Thanks!!! Thanks Alot!!! LOL!!!! or [:'(] BTW, who was Brasky!!!! I gotta know!!!

This should help

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Brasky

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPHdBuXrNFI

[jacksonbart]

Another classic

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aavQfPm-Fo&mode=related&search=

[dtel's wife]

I was wondering how long it would take for this "wave" to come to light![]

[Dflip]

HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007

835 PM AST MON AUG 20 2007

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY

INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS

HAVE INCREASED TO 160 MPH...MAKING DEAN A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC

CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[dtel's wife]

Hey guys there was a show on last night...."Anatomy of a Hurricane"....if you get the chance to see this by all means do so. It was very interesting.

[Dflip]

The 11:00 advisory. Dean has been progressing more westward than anything else, but it the last two hours it has taken a more north-western track. Listening to CNN, it appears that that Dean will continue to slip a bit more northerly because it's outer bands are hitting the pennisula. So far so good, as far as hitting the most populated areas. Hopefully this continues. It will be interesting to see what damage is done inland when Dean finally makes shore a second time. I suspect major flooding from river carrying too much water.

HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DEAN JUST A FEW HOURS
FROM LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD FROM CIUDAD DE CARMEN TO CHILITEPEC. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO
SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC WESTWARD TO
VERACRUZ MEXICO...AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM
VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...
245 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 310 MILES...500 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE EYE OF DEAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DEAN WILL CROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND LIKELY REACH
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...18.4 N...86.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS

[Groomlakearea51]

DEAN AS OF THIS MORNING:

A DROPSONDE IS AN INSTRUMENT THAT IS DROPPED OUT OF THE AIRCRAFT AND TAKES MEASUREMENTS AS IT FALLS TO THE SURFACE.

DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR THE CRUISE SHIP PORT OF COSTA MAYA AROUND 0830 UTC...AND THE EYE IS NOW JUST INLAND. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE WAS INTENSIFYING RIGHT UP TO LANDFALL. A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 165 KT WAS MEASURED JUST NORTH OF THE EYE. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR WERE 124 KT...BUT IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED WAS NOT REPORTED BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT. A GPS DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A WIND SPEED OF 178 KT AVERAGED OVER THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING. BASED ON THE DROPSONDE AND THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 145 KT. A DROPSONDE IN THE EYE MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 906 MB JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SOME HISTORIC NOTES ARE IN ORDER HERE. THE 906 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE IS THE NINTH LOWEST ON RECORD FOR AN ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE...AND THE THIRD LOWEST AT LANDFALL BEHIND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HURRICANE GILBERT OF 1988 IN CANCUN MEXICO. DEAN IS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANDREW OF 1992. DEAN WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STILL BE A BORDERLINE CAT 1/2 HURRICANE WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. ASSUMING THAT THE INNER CORE IS NOT TOO DISRUPTED BY ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND...DEAN SHOULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE ITS FINAL LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/17. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0900Z 18.7N 87.8W 145 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 19.1N 90.4W 85 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/0600Z 19.6N 93.9W 95 KT...OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE
36HR VT 22/1800Z 20.1N 96.8W 105 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 23/0600Z 20.5N 100.0W 25 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[Groomlakearea51]

MIL TRACK PATH