I would bet a hefty chunk of money that it was caught in a jam along with a bunch of other packages. I loaded trailers for 6 years before moving up to driver and seen more than my fair share of jams on high volume belts, especially during peak season. It's not a pretty sight when the jams are significant and constant. If it was a heavy or much larger box I'd be more inclined to agree, however
UPS only insures things up to $50,000.
It really doesn't matter what I say when I comment on these because people have already made up their mind anyway. The fact is you need to over pack everything you send, especially breakables. If you think "ah, that should do it" then there is still a chance it won't survive. Everything I send is packed with 1-3 inches of rigid foam insulation. Styrofoam works until it gets broken then becomes mostly useless. And the box matters too, obviously. Spending an extra ~$20 on packing vs dealing with a damaged package claim and hoping its accepted