Dflip Posted August 27, 2009 Author Share Posted August 27, 2009 The potential Erika has moved up a category to orange and shows signs of intensifying. "A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE... 30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS." Danny has been downgraded to a tropical storm at the moment, including when it hits Nova Scotia. It continues to track more eastwardly in Nova Scotia and hopefully continues this path where it's edge will hit the province, instead of what's left of the eye. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted August 27, 2009 Share Posted August 27, 2009 As long as she follows the path of the other two, I won't have a problem with her. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunburnwilly Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 As long as she follows the path of the other two, I won't have a problem with her. Me either , just another weekend of good surf . BTW Even though we here on the SE coast have the potential of a direct hit , you folk living around the gulf area are truely a hardy breed . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 29, 2009 Share Posted August 29, 2009 I talked with Marshall a few weeks ago. He said he's giving "covered up" a whole new meaning. Getting ready for hurricane season is among the things on his plate. He's also hoping to retire in the near future and training a replacement is a top priority and time consuming, too. He sounds OK and wishes all his forum buddies well. BTW, he sent a pair of Heresy II grills he had fabricated and covered. Tony Reed and I were inspecting them and had a hard time distinguishing them from an OEM pair. His work on these things is near perfection,. Finally made it back! Been working and conducting training, ops etc. since mid-May. Last weekend was the first days off. Slept and tried to clean up the jungle that used to be my house. Off to clean up the garages and workshop, ec this weekend. Hopefully we won't have too bad of a season. El Nino is pulling them across central America and the Bermuda "High" is not deep enough down so most of them (so far) will do the northeast turn in the Atlantic. Couple of pics from the highlights of the summer..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 29, 2009 Share Posted August 29, 2009 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 29, 2009 Share Posted August 29, 2009 Some days you just feel better after a few well placed rounds downrange..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. RF62 Posted August 29, 2009 Share Posted August 29, 2009 Hey Groomy, glad to see your back, now we have someone that kows more about these "canes". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel Posted August 29, 2009 Share Posted August 29, 2009 Welcome back. We will toast you at the bar tonight (3 Minutes to Miller Time thread) Stop by for a cold one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel Posted August 29, 2009 Moderators Share Posted August 29, 2009 Glad to see you back and OK, I like that first picture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 29, 2009 Author Share Posted August 29, 2009 Groomie, nice to see you back. I'm go on a short holiday just before school starts back up on Wednesday, so I won't be posting for a few days. I will leave it up to you to post on any changes in the hurricane outlook. It's been a very mild year so far, sort of the like the summer here in Toronto. I think we've had six days that in the past we would truely have called summer. Danny seems to be winding down and is really just a rainmaker of the eastern seaboard. It's now raining outside the church in Boston at the end of the Ted Kennedy funeral and will probably cancel out the Red Sox vs. Jays game. The other system in the Atlantic is a bt less threatening today, but it still has a long way to go with warm water between it and the Caribbean. It could still reintensify. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daddy Dee Posted August 29, 2009 Share Posted August 29, 2009 Marshall, Glad you could stop by. Thanks for the pics. Very cool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 30, 2009 Share Posted August 30, 2009 It's that time of the year for South Florida where every "blip" on the radar screen poses a threat... The NHC believes that the benign system currently scooting in our direction poses some risk, so..... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THISSYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 30, 2009 Share Posted August 30, 2009 Here's the current track paths from the giant computers.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 30, 2009 Author Share Posted August 30, 2009 The latest update before I go on a three day vacation. The storm in the Atlantic has intensified. It should be interesting to see what it looks like when I get back. Probably a good chance that it will at least have a name and may be significantly stronger. Labour Day is approaching and this storm looks like it fits that general time frame. According to the projected paths that Marshal just posted, most hurricanes this year are being subjected to the push to the north this year once they hit the leeward islands. As a result they are getting caught up in the Gulf Stream and carried into the North Atlantic, which has been a good thing so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 30, 2009 Share Posted August 30, 2009 If you are wondering about the computer acronyms..... XTRP - Extrapolation using past 12-hr motion (NHC) TVCN - Consensus of GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and ECMWF models (replaces old CONU model) NHC - National Hurricane Center official forecast BAMD - Beta and Advection model, deep (NHC) BAMM - Beta and Advection model, medium (NHC) BAMS - Beta and Advection model, shallow (NHC) GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model UKM - United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMET) model (Developmental) NGPS - United States Navy Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model AVNO - NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) model (formerly known as the AVN/MRF) AEMN - NOAA GFS Ensemble Mean HWRF - NOAA Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast (HWRF) model CMC - Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) model LGEM - NOAA Logistic Growth Equation Model (LGEM) CLP5 - CLImatology-PERsistance (CLIPER) model 5-day (NHC) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 30, 2009 Share Posted August 30, 2009 The latest update before I go on a three day vacation. The storm in the Atlantic has intensified. It should be interesting to see what it looks like when I get back. Probably a good chance that it will at least have a name and may be significantly stronger. Labour Day is approaching and this storm looks like it fits that general time frame. Labor Day has bad memories around here.... Hurricane Frances, Wilma, etc. $30K damage to my house from Frances. Have fun on your vacation and I'll follow the swaths of potential destruction until you get back!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 30, 2009 Share Posted August 30, 2009 Here's military satellite photo of that developing system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colterphoto1 Posted August 30, 2009 Share Posted August 30, 2009 tell that soldier at far left to obey firearms safety and get than muzzle to the ground when standing in a group... geesh! Great photos and welcome back Marshall. Time to bump the Encyclopaedia Heritage back up top. M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLSamuel Posted August 30, 2009 Share Posted August 30, 2009 Nice photos and welcom back Marshall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 This morning's news does not look good for Labor Day.... at least the potential for a Florida event is there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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