Groomlakearea51 Posted August 9, 2010 Author Share Posted August 9, 2010 Calypso's Revenge..... 2. A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. That would be directly on top of me...... It's been raining here off and on, very heavy at times since Friday afternoon. Yesterday we got almost 2" in about an hour. Good news? I don't have to cut the grass!!! Bad news? It's really growing now.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 9, 2010 Author Share Posted August 9, 2010 The big picture.... Notice the "gamma ray burst" coming off the African coast..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 9, 2010 Author Share Posted August 9, 2010 The other SAT view Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted August 9, 2010 Share Posted August 9, 2010 What about that blob around south FL? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 9, 2010 Author Share Posted August 9, 2010 That's the one they are talking about that may form later and what has been bringing the rain of biblical proportions down for the last couple days..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 9, 2010 Share Posted August 9, 2010 A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...JUSTOFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ALARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THENORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDASTRAITS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVELWINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FORDEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEMMOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. The good news is it might become a tropical storm given it's slow pace across the gulf. In a maximum case possibility, it might reach a level 1 hurricane. Likely to bring a lot of rain and given it's slow pace it will be a pain in the rear, or is that roofs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted August 10, 2010 Share Posted August 10, 2010 That's the one they are talking about that may form later and what has been bringing the rain of biblical proportions down for the last couple days..... Looks like it's up to a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 10, 2010 Author Share Posted August 10, 2010 It's begun to get windy outside, rain's real "spotty", and only lasts for about 5 minutes as it's getting "sucked" off to the west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 10, 2010 Author Share Posted August 10, 2010 The great ball view!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 10, 2010 Author Share Posted August 10, 2010 Here's the statisical graphic for where they come from and where they go for August. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 10, 2010 Author Share Posted August 10, 2010 And for September.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 10, 2010 Author Share Posted August 10, 2010 Who's gonna' get hit... statistically.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 10, 2010 Author Share Posted August 10, 2010 .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 10, 2010 Author Share Posted August 10, 2010 We are getting there.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 10, 2010 Author Share Posted August 10, 2010 Florida and New Orleans are "storm magnets"...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 10, 2010 Share Posted August 10, 2010 The 2:00 update. Please note that the storm #3 is starting to develop and keep an eye on the two directly behind. There is another one forming up nicely in Africa (Nigeria). Labour Day is getting closer. 200 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OFMEXICO...ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDAPENINSULA...IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE INORGANIZATION TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FORSIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS APPROACHING THESYSTEM AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISFORMING...AND IF SO...WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR APORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS EARLY AS THISAFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEMBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVESWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.2. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS HAS INCREASED ALITTLE TODAY...THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THE LOW IS FORECASTTO MOVE TOWARD AN ENVIRONMENT THAT DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FORSIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELSCONTINUE TO FORECAST FORMATION. THERE IS STILL A HIGH CHANCE...60PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH NORTHEAST OVERTHE ATLANTIC.3. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT700 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARDAT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TOOCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMINGA TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$$FORECASTER AVILA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myhamish Posted August 10, 2010 Share Posted August 10, 2010 Thanks for a great thread. What an education - reading and seeing how this stuff develops instead of the after the fact news coverage. Keep it coming. Slainte. Hamish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 10, 2010 Share Posted August 10, 2010 For storm 5, the following: 730 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HAS JUST COMPLETED ITSRECONNAISSANCE MISSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THESOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THEY CONFIRMED THAT A SURFACECIRCULATION WAS PRESENT...AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEPCONVECTION TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THISTIME. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM ALONG THE PROJECTEDPATH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS NOTIDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING WITH INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THESYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL SOLUTIONSHOWS MORE THAN MODEST STRENGTHENING...BUT THAT MODEL HAS BEENKNOWN TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS AT TIMES. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEEDFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE RELIABLE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEMINTENSITY GUIDANCE AND TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.SINCE THE CENTER IS STILL A BIT BROAD...THE INITIAL MOTION...315/05...IS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THENORTH SHOULD PRODUCE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOMEACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACKFORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.GIVEN THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED SO CLOSE TO THETIME OF THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...THE NEXT ADVISORY ONTHIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT 0300 UTC.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 11/2330Z 26.0N 84.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 26.8N 85.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 28.1N 87.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 29.7N 90.6W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 13/1800Z 31.0N 92.0W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 90.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOWThe good news is it's only going to get to 40 knots, with a lot of rain, or course. The other two systems haven't changed much due to their location, one going out to sea and the other still a long way out. It's still scary that Africa keeps kicking out systems 250- 400 miles apart that could be the next big hurricane. It's been pretty quiet so far, but if you take a look at what Marshall has posted or take a look at Stormpulse.com, you can see what is forming and a potential hurricane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunburnwilly Posted August 11, 2010 Share Posted August 11, 2010 Labour Day is getting closer.Yep , almost always waves on Labour Day YEAHHH ! On a related note I would like to give a big shout out to my Wilmington NC brethren for taking several for the team in the past 15 years . Something about , if you stick your nose out into the Atlantic it's going to get hit . I wonder which will be first for us here in Charleston SC , another Hugo or the long overdue big quake . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 11, 2010 Share Posted August 11, 2010 Tropical depression may increase to 45 knots before it hits just east of New Orleans. The path seems to have shifted a bit more to the east than what was posted yesterday. As per always, just because they suggest the storm will hit point A doesn't mean that it might not hit point A plus or minus a hundred miles east or west. Storm 1 is soon going to be heading almost straight north, so it's not an issue. Storm 2 isn't showing a lot of organization, but it's getting close to hitting the warmer waters of the Caribbean Sea. The one behind it already is showing signs of organization. They seem to be forming up with about a 1000 miles between each one. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010500 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCERESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS NOTCHANGED ITS ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. CONVECTION HASERODED CONSIDERABLY...AS HAS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH ISLIKELY DUE TO COOL DOWNDRAFTS CAUSED BY THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRYMID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ISBEING HELD AT A GENEROUS 30 KT BASED ON SURFACE OBS OF 25-27 KT INSOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS AND A FEW UNCONTAMINATED SFMR WINDS OF25 KT MEASURED BY THE RECON AIR AIRCRAFT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/09 DUE TO DIFFICULTYIN LOCATING THE SURFACE CENTER. DESPITE THE DISRUPTION OF THELOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATES THAT THEDEPRESSION IS WELL DEFINED FROM 850 MB THROUGH AT LEAST 400 MB. ALLOF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TD-5 MOVING NORTHWEST TOWEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL AROUND 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...AGRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS AS AMID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ANDCREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULFCOAST. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WEAKNESS DEVELOPING WILL DETERMINEHOW FAR WEST THE CYCLONE MOVES BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD. THEOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUSADVISORY...AND IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS LACKING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AT THISTIME...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE SUPPORTS THEREDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY AFTER THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIRHAS MIXED AND THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS RECOVERED. NONE OF THEGLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH ON THIS SYSTEM BECOMING MUCH STRONGERTHAN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY..DESPITE A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVELFLOW PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST BY36-48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DROP THE PRESSURE TO 986 AND968 MB...RESPECTIVELY SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE HWRF MODELIS FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH RIGHT ATLANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUSINTENSITY MODELS AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUSADVISORY.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 11/0900Z 26.8N 85.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 27.7N 86.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 28.7N 88.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 29.5N 89.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 30.3N 89.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 31.0N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 15/0600Z 33.5N 87.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120HR VT 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND$$FORECASTER STEWART Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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