Hurricane Season - 2010

[Groomlakearea51]

Calypso's Revenge.....

2. A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

That would be directly on top of me...... It's been raining here off and on, very heavy at times since Friday afternoon. Yesterday we got almost 2" in about an hour. Good news? I don't have to cut the grass!!! Bad news? It's really growing now....

[Groomlakearea51]

The big picture....

Notice the "gamma ray burst" coming off the African coast.....

[Groomlakearea51]

The other SAT view

[CECAA850]

What about that blob around south FL?

[Groomlakearea51]

That's the one they are talking about that may form later and what has been bringing the rain of biblical proportions down for the last couple days.....

[Dflip]

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA
STRAITS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

The good news is it might become a tropical storm given it's slow pace across the gulf. 

In a maximum case possibility, it might reach a level 1 hurricane. Likely to bring a lot of rain and given it's slow pace it will be a pain in the rear, or is that roofs.

[CECAA850]

That's the one they are talking about that may form later and what has been bringing the rain of biblical proportions down for the last couple days.....

Looks like it's up to a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm now.

[Groomlakearea51]

It's begun to get windy outside, rain's real "spotty", and only lasts for about 5 minutes as it's getting "sucked" off to the west.

[Groomlakearea51]

The great ball view!!

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the statisical graphic for where they come from and where they go for August.

[Groomlakearea51]

And for September....

[Groomlakearea51]

Who's gonna' get hit... statistically....

[Groomlakearea51]

..

[Groomlakearea51]

We are getting there....

[Groomlakearea51]

Florida and New Orleans are "storm magnets"......

[Dflip]

The 2:00 update. Please note that the storm #3 is starting to develop and keep an eye on the two directly behind. There is another one forming up nicely in Africa (Nigeria). Labour Day is getting closer.

200 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS APPROACHING THE
SYSTEM AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
FORMING...AND IF SO...WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

2. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS HAS INCREASED A
LITTLE TODAY...THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TOWARD AN ENVIRONMENT THAT DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST FORMATION. THERE IS STILL A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH NORTHEAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC.

3. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
700 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Myhamish]

Thanks for a great thread. What an education - reading and seeing how this stuff develops instead of the after the fact news coverage. Keep it coming. Slainte. Hamish

[Dflip]

For storm 5, the following:

730 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HAS JUST COMPLETED ITS
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THEY CONFIRMED THAT A SURFACE
CIRCULATION WAS PRESENT...AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM ALONG THE PROJECTED
PATH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING WITH INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  ONLY THE GFDL SOLUTION
SHOWS MORE THAN MODEST STRENGTHENING...BUT THAT MODEL HAS BEEN
KNOWN TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS AT TIMES.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE RELIABLE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM
INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

SINCE THE CENTER IS STILL A BIT BROAD...THE INITIAL MOTION...
315/05...IS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH SHOULD PRODUCE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME
ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.

GIVEN THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED SO CLOSE TO THE
TIME OF THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...THE NEXT ADVISORY ON
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT 0300 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/2330Z 26.0N  84.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 26.8N  85.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 28.1N  87.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 29.0N  89.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 29.7N  90.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     13/1800Z 31.0N  92.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     14/1800Z 33.0N  90.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

The good news is it's only going to get to 40 knots, with a lot of rain, or course.

The other two systems haven't changed much due to their location, one going out to sea and the other still a long way out. It's still scary that Africa keeps kicking out systems 250- 400 miles apart that could be the next big hurricane. It's been pretty quiet so far, but if you take a look at what Marshall has posted or take a look at Stormpulse.com, you can see what is forming and a potential hurricane.

[sunburnwilly]

Labour Day is getting closer.

Yep , almost always waves on Labour Day YEAHHH ! On a related note I would like to give a big shout out to my Wilmington NC brethren for taking several for the team in the past 15 years . Something about , if you stick your nose out into the Atlantic it's going to get hit . I wonder which will be first for us here in Charleston SC , another Hugo or the long overdue big quake .

[Dflip]

Tropical depression may increase to 45 knots before it hits just east of New Orleans. The path seems to have shifted a bit more to the east than what was posted yesterday. As per always, just because they suggest the storm will hit point A doesn't mean that it might not hit point A plus or minus a hundred miles east or west.

Storm 1 is soon going to be heading almost straight north, so it's not an issue. Storm 2 isn't showing a lot of organization, but it's getting close to hitting the warmer waters of the Caribbean Sea. The one behind it already is showing signs of organization. They seem to be forming up with about a 1000 miles between each one.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052010
500 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT
CHANGED ITS ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. CONVECTION HAS
ERODED CONSIDERABLY...AS HAS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS
LIKELY DUE TO COOL DOWNDRAFTS CAUSED BY THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING HELD AT A GENEROUS 30 KT BASED ON SURFACE OBS OF 25-27 KT IN
SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS AND A FEW UNCONTAMINATED SFMR WINDS OF
25 KT MEASURED BY THE RECON AIR AIRCRAFT. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/09 DUE TO DIFFICULTY
IN LOCATING THE SURFACE CENTER. DESPITE THE DISRUPTION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATES THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS WELL DEFINED FROM 850 MB THROUGH AT LEAST 400 MB. ALL
OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TD-5 MOVING NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL AROUND 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS AS A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND
CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WEAKNESS DEVELOPING WILL DETERMINE
HOW FAR WEST THE CYCLONE MOVES BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS LACKING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AT THIS
TIME...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE SUPPORTS THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY AFTER THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
HAS MIXED AND THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS RECOVERED. NONE OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH ON THIS SYSTEM BECOMING MUCH STRONGER
THAN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY..DESPITE A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST BY
36-48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DROP THE PRESSURE TO 986 AND
968 MB...RESPECTIVELY SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE HWRF MODEL
IS FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH RIGHT AT
LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
INTENSITY MODELS AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/0900Z 26.8N  85.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 27.7N  86.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 28.7N  88.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 29.5N  89.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 30.3N  89.4W    45 KT
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 31.0N  89.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 33.5N  87.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     16/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART