Moderators dtel Posted August 14, 2011 Moderators Share Posted August 14, 2011 Groomlake, I don't know what your doing down there in Fla but keep doing it, your running them off ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Send'em to Texas, fer cry'in out loud. Unless it's a monster, and damage would be more than outweighed by the rain. No pain, no gain... Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 15, 2011 Author Share Posted August 15, 2011 Gert's dying a slow death, and the other system off the Antilles is moving westward which could take it into the Gulf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 15, 2011 Author Share Posted August 15, 2011 The track path: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 15, 2011 Author Share Posted August 15, 2011 It's the twin high pressure areas on either side of Florida that saves us this week. The penalty we pay in Florida for them not hitting us is the massive thunderstorms every afternoon and the mind bending heat & humidity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Thanks. All we get is the mind bending heat and humidity... Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Well..... Couple of interesting developments..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS ON THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER. 1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 MPH. 2. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. THE LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Deja vu.... Let's see.... Today is the 19th..... Assuming it slows down a bit (they usually do after they pass the leewards and start to turn...) We're looking at almost Labor Day weekend.... That's when Hurricane Frances destroyed life as I knew it...... And this looks suspiciously like a Frances in the making..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Just keep crossing your fingers that it passes over every land mass on it's way to Florida and/or the Gulf. I can handle the rain, but I don't like Cat-2+ winds..... [H] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USNRET Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 GULF.....GULF......GULF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The first advisory for Irene. So far it's projected to reach Florida just short of a Cat 1 hurricane. A lot will depend on how much Haiti and Cuba take out of it. Storm 98 which is following Irene is projected to go out to sea (North Atlantic) as with many of the storms last year and this year. TROPICAL STORM IRENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011700 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THETROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FOUND A SMALL LOW-LEVELCIRCULATION CENTER JUST SOUTHWEST OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST AND AMINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1006 MB. THE PLANE ALSO MEASURED AMAXIMUM WIND OF 53 KT AT 1400 FT AND BELIEVABLE WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT FROM THE SFMR. THUS ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ONTROPICAL STORM IRENE WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.A ROUGH ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/19. A LARGEMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ISEXPECTED TO STEER IRENE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWOOR THREE DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THAT TIME AND CAUSEIRENE TO GRADUALLY DECELERATE. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK GENERALLY IN THE DIRECTION OF HISPANIOLA TO THE SOUTH OFPUERTO RICO. THEREAFTER...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OFTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THERIDGE. THIS COULD ALLOW IRENE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE...ALTHOUGH THEMODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWFSHOW ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS TO BRING THE STORM NORTH OF CUBA...WHILETHE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN HAVE ENOUGH RIDGING IN PLACE TO KEEP THESTORM IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NHC FORECAST WILL SPLIT THOSE TWOIDEAS AND LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL VORTEX IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGES AND IT WILLPROBABLY TAKE SOME TIME TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...IRENE IS MOVINGOVER RATHER WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT SHEAR EXPECTED. MOST OF THERELIABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE STORM TO A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHINGHISPANIOLA...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THISSCENARIO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND IS RATHERCHALLENGING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION. ALTHOUGHTHE NHC FORECAST WILL SHOW ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OFRE-INTENSIFICATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITEFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IF IRENE AVOIDS SIGNIFICANT LANDINTERACTION.BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEENISSUED FOR MANY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ANDPUERTO RICO. NOTE...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY TAKES THE PLACE OF THE STANDARD 800 PMAST/0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILLBE THE FULL ADVISORY PACKAGE ISSUED AT 1100 PM AST/0300 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 20/2300Z 14.9N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 15.4N 61.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 16.1N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 16.7N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 17.5N 69.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 19.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 21.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH120H 25/1800Z 24.0N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH$$FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Well.... Looks like I'm in the proverbial "bulls-eye"....... So's Jhoak, Willand, Rennoc and a couple others... See that black dot next to Lake Okeechobee for 8 AM Friday? Well, give or take about 20 miles, that's my roof..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 I'd say the tracks are pretty consistent..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Here's the part you really need to watch.... FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.2N 68.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.9N 70.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.6N 73.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.5N 76.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 24.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.0N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. You have to make an assumption at some point. That assumption means that over my roof, I'm well within any reasonable "arc" of 60 mph winds. When the wind speeds are above 75 mph, that's when things start to come apart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Talk about a forecaster hedging their bets..... THE STORM IS BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/17...BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A COUPLE OF TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFDL MODEL TAKES IRENE TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE THE HWRF MODEL TAKES IT THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS IN FLORIDA ARE ADVISED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN LONGER-RANGE FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 17.0N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.2N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 18.9N 70.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1200Z 19.6N 73.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/1200Z 21.5N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 25/1200Z 24.0N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 27.0N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 And for the "bookies" on the Forum, place your bets..... Numbers are the % of that particular scenario happening. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 18(30) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 14(32) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 13(30) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 13(25) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Here's what it looks like: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 The big picture.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhoak Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Well all 7 of George Carlin's "7 words you can't say on TV" have recently come to mind. [] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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