Economy- about to really hit the fan?

[lne937s]

Since money is perhaps the #1 limiting factor for most of our audio equiptment, I think this is germaine.

I am really getting worried. The stock market is falling to pieces, companies are "restructuring," and our recovery seems to have been very short lived. And being in marketing/advertising, the effects of the economy become glaring.

I realize from economic data that this stuff hits us first- hard and fast. However, it will hit the rest of you soon, if it hasn't already. Just wait untill all those Ford plants close and the restructuring plans go into full effect. I would really like to know how the rest of the country is being effected.

Bush lecturing about corporate ethics is like Clinton becoming a marriage councellor. He, as well as much of his cabinet and his brother Neil, have made their fortunes off corporate welfare, insider trading, and shady practices. The campaign contributions of the corporations we are bailing out now probably made the difference in the presidential election. To make Arthur-Anderson the Patsy for all this is shallow.

I know that this board is overrun by died-in-the-wool conservatives, but I really think we have the wrong man for the job- at least right now. I just don't think he can inspire confidence in the people in this area or be hard-nosed about stopping practices he has personnally benefitted from. Anyway, I don't think economic de-regulation will go through any time soon.

I want to hear your thoughts, especially from those of you in the middle (geographically as well as politically).

Larry

This message has been edited by lne937s on 07-11-2002 at 05:03 PM

[mobile homeless]

Do you really want to read the responses from this forum on this matter? You must be a glutton for punishment of the most intense kind.

Questions like this will bring up so much conservative rhetoric, you wont know which way to turn, and when you factor in the invariable need to reference some form of patriotism or religious and or moral overtone in the mix, even when discussing economic policy, the result is a trip to thy head in the hands pose, with opposed thumb and index/middle fingers locked within temple sockets.

Perhaps you are in the mood for this drama. My hat's off to you for your amazing patience and will to endure even though I have no earthly idea WHY this is the place you opt for this exchange. Can you not script the answers with a modicum of forethought?

kh

ie See Below

This message has been edited by mobile homeless on 07-11-2002 at 04:29 PM

[Ray Garrison]

I guess I'm sort of a dyed-in-the-wool conservative given that I believe in personal responsibility, don't believe in government handouts, think taxes should be drastically reduced, particularly capital gains, prefer adoption to abortion, don't believe society should have the right to penalize successful people by taking their money away from them and giving it to lazy underachiving bums who would rather collect government handouts than work, believe in the sanctity of marriage, think there's way to much sex and violence on TV, and haven't respected a Democratic president since Kennedy.

On the other hand, I was the CTO of an Internet B2B exchange that was meeting our numbers (both revenue and margin) that got caught up in the general collapse of the high-tech venture funding and was closed down by our investors. I've been out of work since December 1, 2001 and am still trying to find a job. There are easily 200 desparate, unemployed technology specialists in Connecticut for every job opportunity. I have a 3 year old foster son (mother is a drug addict who gets more in state support than my sister-in-law makes working her butt off at Stop and Shop) and am prohibited from leaving the state, unless I want to give up my son, so I can't relocate.

So, who do YOU think should be in charge of the US of A? I kind of like Bush - I can't IMAGINE how terrible things would be if Gore had actually won in Florida. Might not even be a county here today.

Ray

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Music is art

Audio is engineering

Ray's Music System

[rowooo]

How does one become "Geologically in the Middle"? I predict another year or so of real volatile markets with all the corporate corruption and restructuring going on, however I do believe in the long run this will pay off. Obviously this has been going on for years and is just now starting to expose its ugly head. These companies are going to start falling like dominoes, were just going to have to ride it out. And Lne, who would you suggest to instantly take us out of this mess? Martha Stewart maybe............

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2 Channel System:

Klipsch Epic CF-2s

McIntosh C-15 Preamplifier

Adcom GFA 5500 Amplifier

Music Hall MMF-5 Table

Adcom GCD 700 CD

Adcom ACE-515 AC Enhancer

Transparent Audio Cabless>

[lne937s]

Rowoo-

I meant geographically- thanks for catching it, I'll fix it now.

Larry

[dougdrake]

I think "Geologically in the Middle" refers to being between a rock and a hard place .

Doug "I lean so far right I have to walk with a crutch" Drake

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My System

[lne937s]

Who to fix it?

Rudy could probably do it.

Mel Carnahan or Harry S Truman - if either was still alive.

Lieberman would probably do a much better job than either Gore or Bush.

The sword is two sided. On one side, you need someone with impeccable business ethics and who will actively seek out the culprits, regardless of political party (I still think the concentration on Gates was based on the fact that the richest man in the world was not a Republican- as we can see now, there were much worse cases out there). On the other, you need someone who is persuasive- to keep up investor confidence up (don't cut your foot off to fix a hangnail). That way, real companies like HP or Ray's won't go down the drain.

I see a repeat of the S&L bailout comming.

Also, I am trying to keep this on target, leaving out any other political issues. However, I find the differences amazing between "Conservatives" and denotative conservatives- especially on social issues.

One way or the other- let's hope for the best

Larry

[boa12]

Larry, thanks for the contrarian indicator.

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My Home Systems Page

[skonopa]

In my case, as long as the government keeps spending money on defense contracts, I am set. Our latest long-term planning meeting indicated that we have work until at least 2050, not to mention that the software on all those ships will still need to be maintained and upgraded, thus theoretically giving me over 100 years of work! Unless something drastically changes (which can happen), I'll most likely been long retired and dead before my line of work dries up.

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Steven Konopa

Fredericksburg, VA

Denon AVR3802 (Receiver)

RF-7 (Fronts)

RC-7 (Center)

RC-7 (Rear)

RS-7 (A Surrounds)

Infinity RS2000.5 (B Surrounds - recycled)

REL Storm III (Subwoofer 1)

Yamaha YST-SW40 (Subwoofer 2 - Recycled)

JVC XV-S65GD (DVD)

Sharp DX-200 (CD - ancient)

RCA DWD490RE (DirecTV/Ultimate TV receiver)

Sharp 32 inch (TV)

[Mighty Favog]

I suppose anything I would say here might be misconstrued as being hypocritical. At my job we just flourish when the economy is bad. I work for a small firm of court reporters. When the economy is bad people get frustrated because they don't have the money they did. People then get mad at each other and want to get their hands on some money ASAP. So they sue each other. That's where we come in, taking depositions and the like at over $3 a page and 24 lines of ten-point print per page. That come to an average of 40 pages an hour + $50/hour attendance fees. Bring-em' on!!

Bad side to this is that my retirment fund is going to the dumper.....

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Tom's Money Pit

This message has been edited by tblasing on 07-11-2002 at 05:51 PM

[TBrennan]

Ray---Jeez; I believe in personal reponsibility (far more than people who form corporations do), don't like handouts for shitbums, believe in marriage, don't like abortion, think there's too much sex and violence on TV (the free market at work gives us that) and haven't liked a Democratic president since JFK and I'm a Liberal Democrat. Go figure. How do you like those unemployment checks? You don't think that was a Conservative idea do you? Thank the Unions and Liberals, the old fashioned fighting economic Liberals of the New Deal persuasion that is, not these winky "social" Liberals, whom I hate more than I hate Conservatives for having screwed effective Liberalism all up. Social Liberals want to build "affordable" housing for working poor people but are content they remain poor, economic Liberals want to raise wages and salaries so everyone can live in normal housing.

[Ray Garrison]

Tom,

It's late, and I'm typing in the dark so I don't wake up Nick (the 3 year old sleeping on the bed next to the desk, here), so just one quick observation.

Regarding those unemployment checks - here's an interesting bit of twisted logic. See, since I've gotten together with two partners, and formed an LLC, and am trying to build a business that salvages SOMETHING out of the old Freshnex, I'm what the Government considers "self employed". I am not eligible for unemployment compensation. The fact that we have no revenue doesn't matter. Just the fact that I'm trying to start something, trying to pull myself up out of this mess, means that I'm not able to take advantage of any asistance that someone else who was NOT trying to restart themselves would qualify for. Don't try, get government assistance. Try, get no assistance. Sort of like the writers of M*A*S*H were in charge.

Uh, hey, that M*A*S*H thing was supposed to be a joke! You don't suppose...

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Music is art

Audio is engineering

Ray's Music System

[lne937s]

Ray,

I know that it is usually the guy in the middle that gets the shaft.

However, there are a number of small business programs and loans that could help you out. I know of people who lived fairly well while setting up failing businesses. I'll ask around and try to find you some good resources.

Remember that so called "corporate welfare" programs if you include tax breaks, bailouts, and subsides easily outspend social welfare (although you can make the numbers look the other way easily- either way they are both a lot of money). You can thank the Republicans for that (not truly conservatives). However, usually only people with good lawyers and accountants can reap the rewards. Look into it- and maybe you can get some of that cash for yourself. If everyone else is doing it...

Larry

[TBrennan]

Ray---Too bad. In Illinois unemployment compensation is funded by a tax the employer pays, in effect the employee pays the tax since the money would otherwise be available for wages. In my experience people who've been laid-off and are collecting unemployment are eager to go back to work, had they been shitbums they wouldn't have been working in the first place. I think the vast majority of people like to work and want to do a good job though sometimes poor management alienates people and they can't do thier best then. Keep pluggin' away, most ambitious people seem to do OK in the end.

[Ray Garrison]

Tom,

I think most states work the same way - the employer pays an unemployment tax.

I didn't really mean to imply that people that are collecting unemployment are bad people. There are a LOT of government assistance programs that get abused - dealing with DCF during the process of becoming the foster parents of Nick has certainly been an educational experience for my wife and me - but I agree that many (most?) of the people that unemployment benefits are people who paid the tax in the first place, and are as anxious to get back to work as they could be.

What does strike me as odd is the fact that all you have to do to DISQUALIFY yourself from any benefits is to say that you're starting a company, and you hope that someday, somehow, it might be successful. As soon as you accept responsibility for your own livelyhood, all forms of assistance evaporate. Seems rather counterproductive.

Yes, there are small business loan programs, and grants, and such, as mentioned by lne937s (that's quite the handle...) but most banks won't talk to you unless you have some assets to secure a loan, at least in today's climate.

Still, hope springs eternal...

Ray

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Music is art

Audio is engineering

Ray's Music System

[BLOOMIS914]

Ray- I knew I loved you for a reason, keep up the fight, we got your back!

lne937s--Talk about opening a can of worms.....First, My experience with liberals (Democrats) and Conservatives (Republicans) has taught me that more often than not it is almost always a Democrat/Liberal who believes in Big or Bigger government and one that will always create a new program and tax to save the rare Jupiter beetle in some remote part of SW Arizona. It is always a Democrat/Liberal that is pushing to artificially increase minimum wage for employees.

Let me ask a question, if you own a McDonalds or even more realistic the corner Coney Island store and have 10 employees making $5.00 an hour who show up to work everyday under their own free will. How would you feel as the owner if someone was trying to pass a bill/law to increase their wages by $1.00 per hour (That's 20% for you people who have trouble reading ballots in Florida).????? That's what I thought....You the business owner, providing jobs and economic opportunity and keeping the business cycle flowing should be penalized right??!! Because of the Liberals(Most Democrats), this country is quickly moving in the direction of European Socialism. Don't believe me, open your eyes and talk to anyone who owns ANY business and they continue to get increasingly taxed and punishesd for their continued efforts and hard work.

I try to stay open-minded, but the last thing the country needs at a time like this is a bunch of whining liberals playing Monday morning quarterback....And then to suggest Lieberman or Gore could handle the Presidency....Please stop now, get the phone number for Tom Cruise, Phil Donahue and Alec Baldwin and buy your ticket to that better country that will allow you to express your thoughts, ideas and opinions.

What a hypocrite...Liberals are the ones who claim to be proud to be American but will reserve the right to burn the flag or protest the Pledge of Allegiance, or protect the Afghan soldiers rights being held in Gitmo and so on......Give me a break and Wake up!!!!!!!!

Nothing personal, I just can't stand liberalism and your "the world owes me a living" philosophy.

No PC responses from this hard-working married family man!

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[TBrennan]

Ray---I suppose that being self-employed nobody was paying into the unemployment fund for you, therefore you wouldn't qualify. In Illinois you have to qualify to collect; have worked so many hours and such. When I go in to sign up the clerk goes into the computer and checks all the contractors I've worked for and how much they've paid in. It would be a good idea if the self-employed could pay into the fund for themselves and thus be covered if things don't work out.

[lne937s]

Brett,

I think if you asked Ted Turner or Bill Gates they might disagree with you.

Anyway, Coney Island (or anywhere else in NYC) pays significantly more than $5- it's too expensive to live here and you have to pay more to get reliable labor. I am personally anti-union if they do not offer some type of apprenticship training.

If you look at taxes 50 years ago as a percentage of the GDP, you will notice that they were actually higher then than they are today. However, income tax was lower- the taxes from corporations and tarrifs made up the difference. In general it is the average Joe or the small business that gets it- big business usually has some way out. Look at how much money in taxes defense contractors like GE pay. Also, do you think that Amway (pyramid scheme) would still be legal if it wasn't the #1 contributer to the Republican Party in '96?

Overall, I have to say that the majority of our elected officials are trying to do a good job. However, there are bad apples on both sides. Despite historically voting Democratic, I can't bring myself to do so here for most city offices- the party structure is too stratified and unrealistic to be effective. However, in MO, the Democrats are more realistic, while the competing, unrealistic bible belters and the economic conservatives make the Republicans ineffective. Democrats actively try to lower taxes in MO, while not going into debt or gutting necessary programs.

Both parties have their special interests. Moderation is necessary for either to be successful. To demonize one or the other is naive. The real issues that effect this country are those that the average person never hears about and probably wouldn't understand if they did.

Money makes politics go around. Average Americans don't have enough to give, and even labor unions pale in comparison to corporate contributions. Big business has purchased many of the policies you complain about by installing the politicians they want, which is not always a bad thing. This goes beyond our borders- look at what fueled Boris Yeltzin's reelection campaign.

As something to think about- here is one argument for raising minimum wage- Economic Emperialism. By raising wages for unskilled workers, you make overseas sweatshops more appealing to businesses. While this causes short term economic detriments, there are long term benefits. Historically, there are two ways to create a high standard of living for a society: regulate the hell out of it (like Sweden, which most Americans are not willing to do) or create an empire, exploiting other nations. By keeping the empoverished, uneducated workforce overseas, businesses make profit, consumers have lower prices, and the social problems of an impoverished population are left to other countries. Some sort of welfare is essential to pacify an empoverished population necessary to keep wages down in a closed system. If it wasn't there, there would be increased crimes of desparation and resentment as well as social upheaval. However, under Economic Empirialsm, poor people are only needed to serve those with money ("service economy?")- reducing the need for welfare.

The process of Global Economic Empirialism is going on currently. Look around your house- how many things have you bought that are actually made here (even Klipsch RF3 woofers are made in Mexico). In the 90's we maintained economic growth with less than "minimum unemployment" (5%). It is also necessary to move production overseas- "Trickle-Down" policies we have adopted don't work well in a closed system.

However, we need to invest in education to stay on top. There has to be some sort of justification for our global position. If we don't, all the countries that we use for cheap labor will overtake us (remember when Japan was a relatively powerless country that made cheap merchandise?). Our math and science ed is far behind many competing countries. With raw materials (which we have an overabundance of) becoming a smaller and smaller portion of the cost of an item, the emphasis has to be placed on design an development. Also, population control becomes necessary- the increased investment in education combined with the reduced need for cheap labor makes it so. Maybe that is an even bigger issue.

The educational and career achievements of many are hindered by child birth. The earning power of someone who finishes college is much higher than that of someone who drops out of high school to raise a kid. While having children is a good thing if planned and prepared for- it can be catastrophic otherwise. The success rates of children born to single, teenage mothers is dismal. Active parenting is essential to raising kids and very difficult for single parents- and I have to give a hand to all of the single parents who are slaving away to give their kids the best life possible. We can preach responsibility all we want, but it really won't make much difference- and we all have to pay the consequences. If you don't believe me- look at the teen pregnancy rates of Mt. Vernon, MO (a Bible belt town that has previously had the one of highest rates in the nation). Adoption is an option, but realistically only for healthy white infants- the rest are out of luck. I personally think that everyone on welfare should be required to be on birth control- with no more money for more kids. Also, making birth control free would be a help. This is opening a whole other can of worms- so disragard this paragraph.

So here are some ideas for all of you out there to wrap your heads around. I hope you all actually try to think rather than spouting off some partisan dogma. Please don't take anything too seriously- all you pissed off Conservatives need to lighten up.

I also want to hear from the middle of the country- I want to know what's going on out there.

Larry

This message has been edited by lne937s on 07-13-2002 at 01:30 AM

[discorules]

don't blame me. I voted with the majority.

[rowooo]

We need some rain!

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2 Channel System:

Klipsch Epic CF-2s

McIntosh C-15 Preamplifier

Adcom GFA 5500 Amplifier

Music Hall MMF-5 Table

Adcom GCD 700 CD

Adcom ACE-515 AC Enhancer

Transparent Audio Cabless>