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Economy- about to really hit the fan?


lne937s

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Everyone is trying to categorize the enemy of our economy (Democrats vs. Republicans, Liberals vs. Conservatives, etc) here's a new classification- blame the Boomers. (The baby boom- people born between the end os WWII and the start of Vietnam).

Look at that graph of income increases (I assume household, not per cap)- the sharp rises in the top bracket correlate with the boomers taking control. The boomers are the largest generation in this country- and are at peak earning potential now. What happens when they retire? With them at peak earning potential, how can we have a recession? The fact that we are having a recession isn't as scarey as the timing of it. The Boomers are in charge of both parties. They control virtually every corporation. When one who has a power position leaves or gets fired- another is waiting to take his place. The natural movement of power from old to young is taking a vacation because there are still enough older people to hold the positions. This prevents the progress of the Gen X (roughly defined as people born during Vietnam, the generation after that really doesn't have a name yet) to power positions as people retire.

Generation X is the first generation in American history to make less money than their parents when taking into account for inflation. Their population numbers are very small compared to the boomers. These two factors combined will make it very difficult to fund the mass retreat of the Boomers into retirement.

Much of this is the inevitable consequence of population fluctuations. However, these fluctuations should be resulting in great numbers at present. We should be paying off the debt now and investing in the future. We need to be promoting an economy that works smarter- we don't have enough strong backs to fuel an economy on manual labor. We need to improve math and science scores so that our ingenuity can move us forward.

On the whole trade issue- think of it this way. A bottle of designer cologne- $60. Cost of production- $6 max, most of which is packaging. The rest of the money goes to fund design, marketing, advertising, sales, that attractive girl who sprays it on you at the store, etc. More money is pumped into our economy through the labor of foriegners than is given to those foriegners. Think of it as exploiting foriegners- giving us more than we put in.

Much the same can be said for audio equiptment. Do not confuse American brands or "assembled in America" with 100% American. If you don't believe me, take your speakers apart (some reference Klipsch woofers are made in Mexico) or disassemble your car.

Fast forward 15 years. We won't have the labor force to pay for all the retired boomers if we rely on domestic labor, or supply their consumption habits. Gen Xers will be taking over, but since Boomers have wasted all the fat years and kept all the management positions to themselves for all those years, things will be in disarray. We will have to rely on our brains to move us ahead. More value must be placed on engineering, development, refinement, information, creativity, rather than on the bulk of raw materials used or the labor hours involved. The days of SUV's will end. Automation and foriegn labor will be essential to production. If we don't start changing now, we will be in a world of hurt.

Labor unions (not necessarily trade unions) are detrimental to this process because they reduce the will of people to enter the new "information" sector, or whatever you want to call it. While they are not completely counterproductive, they do slow changes in how we manage our labor force. The US is already behind in these changes and we need to speed things up. Also, why invest tens of thousands of dollars and hundreds of hours of work in school when only to graduate and end up making half of what your high school drop-out buddy is making. On top of that, they have been making this money for the past 4 or 5 years (easily leading to a half million dollar deficit for the college educated). This puts them @$60K a year in the next to the top bracket, and if it is a two union wage household- at the bottom of the top bracket. I have no problem with everyone making a good living and people who work hard, especially, but I think these wages are quite a bit above market value ($40k is more reasonable-although I'm sure Forrest would like less).

When I left grad school I didn't have a job waiting for me- I had to make a fake resume that claimed that I had LESS education so that I could get a job waiting tables to pay the bills- it's like some kind of sick joke. Many labor jobs will not take you if you have a degree- you're overeducated (I've tried). Have the uneducated have taken over? They are going to shoot us in the foot when the boomers retire and we need to find new ways to generate income.

Corporations are also being counterproductive. So many are looking to generate short term profits, they are unwilling to invest in the long term, like R&D. Many execs are too stubborn to admit they took the wrong direction. The "if it aint broke don't fix it" approach is slowing our development and growth. Corporate politics is getting almost as bad as national, special interests are taking over policy decisions. Ceo's are tying themselves to closely to personal money making rather than promoting the business.

I encourage all of you to look at the link I posted on the page from BMW HR- the unions are actually working with the corporation to develop the most mutually beneficial relationship. I think that the Euro is going to continue to gain on the US dollar based on some policy decisions, the integration of eastern Europe, and some future population changes.

Some more to think about,

Larry

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"If the personal freedoms guaranteed by the Constitution inhibit the

government's ability to govern the people, we should look to limit those guarantees." (President Bill Clinton, August 12, 1993).

LOL. This Denteen, Discoduck and Neocortex Clipped HERO. Slick Willy. MUHAHAHA

I don't know about you but I prefer Colonel Klinck over Hitler any day! LOL

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Go Forth and Hump the World

This message has been edited by forresthump2 on 08-05-2002 at 04:00 PM

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Hey People - Don't count unions out yet. Government employees, academics, medical professionals, and many other sectors are sucessfuly organizing unions to represent their interest at work. Unions are the only thing with any teeth that the American workers have to really affect change. The workers of America are eventually going to look around and realize that their number one responsibility is the look out for the interest of themselves and their families and they will unite to represent their common interest as the wealthy have done. It will be deja vu ala 1890. Unless human nature changes (not) there will be a revolution rivaling if not exceeding the bloody labor struggles early in the last century. When a union worker strikes for a bigger slice of the pie, that is pure capitalism. When American workers courageously lay down their tools together the nations mind will turn.

The real wealth in this country is quietly laughing their asses off at the workers of America.

__________________

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eat your vegetables

This message has been edited by Big Bean on 08-06-2002 at 08:19 AM

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I think unions are loosing steam because they REFUSE to adapt and face change quickly, or at all.

Also, Neil Cavuto on Fox News was a unionized factory worker for years, and he now hate sunions because of the fact the union bosses are covering their own asses while the workers are having to fend for themselves. I think in many cases, a union is like a company, where the "brotherhood" is out, and covering your own *** is in. A union is a business, and I think they are in the same category with many other businesses, where they are not as pure as people make them out to be.

Personally, I have NO interest in unions. However, I feel for people who choose to go down that road, they need to ensure their memberships are going back to them, not a 9,000 sq. ft. house in the Hampton's.

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It's not that complicated. We tried trickle down. We tried deregulation. We cut income tax on the rich. We traded living wage jobs for cheap imported products at the Walmart and IT"S NOT WORKING! The standard of living for the working man is going down the crapper. Factory workers, cubicle workers, managers and professionals are working more and more for less and less. Look around people. Social security - Ha. Get sick in this great country you might go bankrupt even with todays bullshit insurance. Own a home - sure after you pay off your fifty or seventy year mortgage that you have tapped to replace the roof and windows, pay for college, a hospital bill or legal bill. We all know people who can't afford the drugs they need. In Illinois we support our schools with gambling, booze and cigarette taxes. Wow we must really value our childrens education. Hell mom works, dad works and pretty soon we are going to have the kids working to help out just like the good ole days huh.

This is not my vision for America. The real wealth in this country doesn't use public schools, HMOs, or rely on social security. They will be just fine behind their tall fenced in communities. The American rank and file will eventually start realizing that it's about the rich and the poor. And they're not really the rich republicans they thought they were. Not really. The wealth in this country will be sure to protect its interest - they have a lot to loose. The average American needs to tend to his interest as well.

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eat your vegetables

This message has been edited by Big Bean on 08-06-2002 at 10:20 AM

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Ken---Are you implying that Union leaders live in houses in the Hamptons? That's news to me my friend. I'm an officer in my Local and I know where every penny goes. Our full-time oficers, the Business Manager and his agents, are making less money than the guys out in the field, and that's counting the car and expenses.

The president of my International makes a paltry amount of money for a guy administering an organization with 50,000 members. I know, I voted on his last raise. Lots of guys in the field are making more than him too. He does the work because he believes in it not because of the dough.

I agree that Unions have to get with it but labor laws in this country are tilted against unions, making organizing very hard. Many who wish to join unions are afraid of retaliation by the company. It happens all the time, there is much injustice.

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I worked for a casino where the workers brought a vote to unionize. The reaction of the company said it all:

1. Employees were shown the door who were thought to be "pro-union". Said company was very adept at firing employees for strictly political reasons, without losing lawsuits (which, IMO, speaks for why unions could be beneficial; at minimum, more worker friendly labor laws).

2. Supervisors (aka pit bosses) were instructed to inform their superiors which rank and file casino dealers were pro-union (they forgot that the pit bosses are our friends, too).

3. Knock down, drag out arguments in the break room, and wherever said dealers would congregate - fear of job loss does strange things to people.

4. Massive propaganda from the company in the form of mandatory meetings and distribution of flyers against unionization.

The vote failed (I suspect due to fear of job loss). Needless to say, I am not there anymore - by my choice, not theirs. I have never been union, but from the POV of someone who has never been union:

I would have liked to have that backing. I saw all too many good employees (who were good employees, good people, and good at their jobs - who shed positive light on the company) - lose thier jobs and homes over strictly political BS; how much and how well you socialized out of work with the powers that be had more to do with your standing in the company than job performance did. Nepotism was the order of the day. The smart ones left of their own accord, and found better working environments (lots left for out-of town casinos). I can't blame them. Non union casino worker = zero job security. They actually fired a working couple on their wedding day - and they found out about it at their wedding, from a rank and file dealer. No kidding. And it was no coincidence they were, you guessed it - pro union.

Workers in the US have been getting the shorter end of the stick for some time. The typical family work schedule says it all: 2 parents + sometimes children working to make ends meet. Those parents now expect schools (which are working with less and less funding all of the time) to be parents, because they are too busy working - the same parents who veto referendums for additional school funding. Yet another example of the US expectation of getting something for nothing. They expect they will work and get nothing, so why not the other way around?

Lost in all of this discussion is the long term effects of two parent working families on those children. The baby boomers need to realize that those school-parented kids will be a part of their support system when they retire - better hope that school did their job! I hope the baby boomers have saved enough for retirement - that is, if their investment portfolios are still intact.

I believe that it will take a recession similar to the 1970's to wake up American labor - a veritable economic slap upside the head. As good as the economy was in the 1990's, there were entirely too many left out of the prosperity. What's going to happen in a REAL recession?

I don't have the answers - if I did, I wouldn't be here - just some observations from a regular working class joe.

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Thanks for pointing out that if you don't like it you can leave it and get another job or start your own company. The Liberals policies hurt your own pocketbook and hurt the economy. Are you in control or

do you want the Gov to control you. If the GOV controls things there always a price.

Unions are on there way out anywho. They cant adapt to a rapidly changing world. And if they change like they have and should then they nothing more than employee Associations. They cant defeat capitalism and that the goal of unions and liberals. Change us to socialism.

Syanari unions and liberals. hee-hee

Only Liberals are dumb enough to believe tax cuts are a bad thing. Only losers that dont make any $$$ and pay taxes hate cuts. I shown earlier the tax cuts did help

the economy after the Slick Willy recession that we see now started in Q1/01. GDP revised up 1% in Q4/01 thanks to W Bush tax cuts. hee-hee-hee

Even AlSore has to be moderate by image and the people saw and see right through it. tee-hee-hee

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Go Forth and Hump the World

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MD say "Individual pay is not linked to individual output."

Boy only a true Libby moron could say this. LOL So Pay people less and we get more work from them. So we should pay people less. HAHAHA Dont bother us with the metaphysics and unusual case examples that dont mean squat Denteen. LMAO

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Go Forth and Hump the World

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Too bad the for the hard workers in GOV, firefighters, and unions. They could get more pay on merit but the unions and regulated employers hold them back.

If a firefighter works hard he gets promated and makes more money. Under the GOV system even. They even have to follow sound pay and business practice. Any company

today knows that if they take care of the employees its to the companies benefit. You dont hear productive employees screaming.

MD spins and lies about the firefighters. That's not the case. He really is representing deadbeats that dont want to work and to give them inflated wages. Its the difference between capitalism and socialism. And capitalism isnt perfect but its the best. The people know it and all about fair play.

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Go Forth and Hump the World

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MD, Gosh for some self-professed huge success in a business in a Capitalistic society, you sure do seem to

Abhor the very system YOU feed on. LOL Hypocritical clown. Lets talk about the union mob connections, extortion, blackmail, bribing, killing, illegal fund raising, ballot rigging and on and on. Thank God unions are now like the more civil and legal associations you now talk of. Thanks for making that connection and observation. Unions' old policies of cohersion do not work anymore. LOL

Pay based on merit works with capitalism. Funny how you never address pay based on merit, only on social equality. Pay based on merit IS best for society as I have shown. If somebody has a talent that the market values then they make money. The American dream motivates and you ignore it with your communistic dreams.

Now that Unions and the systems that dont work are on their way out, only problem is you now want the Gov to take their place, even more than the Liberals have already championed. That where the politics come in along with your chump libby heros like AL Sore, Hilly and Billy, Tom and Dick. If you say its not about politics you're a liar chump. The real intelligent and reasonable see right through your game. Now when times are bad you think you can rally people to foolish thought like the opportunists you and the Libbies are. LMAO

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Go Forth and Hump the World

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Forrest---You are one of two things. A business owner, in which case you speak to your own interests and not mine. Or a ball-washing, rubber-backed, lickspittle, head-nodding, knee-scraping lackey. In that case you don't speak to my interests either.

You have no compassion for those who suffer and apologize for evil. Your soul is in danger of eternal Damnation, seriously.

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That's correct. Anyone that can say nothing but negative about the greatest economic system the world has known must have some agenda. Doesn't even lend itself to good discussion to be so over the edge and unbalanced.

I know the economy is slow and the liberals see big opportunity. But grassroots campaigning for the Democratic Party on an Audio/Video discussion board? Come on, get a life people. Wink.gif

How long will it take these losers to get past their big loss in the 2000 election?

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live long & prosper

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