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Mallette

Poll & Prediction: Autonomous Car Equipment at 5k by 2019

Autonomous Vehicles: Good or Bad  

49 members have voted

  1. 1. Are autonomous vehicles a good witch, or a bad witch?

    • Good
      20
    • Bad
      28


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On 22 March, a Delphi Automotive autonomous Audi Q5 will leave San Francisco to head for New York.  No spinning lidar and such...looks like any other car.  The doubters should consider that the first cross country automobile trip was in 1903 when few Americans had ever seen a car and not 1 in a 1000 would have believed they'd own one and the streets would be full of them in 10 years.  That 1903 trip was, IMHO, a much great technological feat that this will be.

 

Delphi predicts that the equipment to make a car autonomous will be 5k by 2019, a pretty small price to pay for "insurance" that will reduce you chance of death or injury by at least 90%.  Speaking of insurance...one would predict that, given the huge reduction in accidents under autonomy, insurers will begin to reduce rates by monitoring when a vehicle is under autonomous or manual control with a 90% reduction in premium for time spent in autonomy.  That will encourage adoption.  One they are entirely autonomous the premiums will be almost negligible.  In fact, a case will eventually come saying it's absurd to hold an owner responsible for something over which he has no control.

 

Things are changing FAST!

 

Dave

Edited by Mallette
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Dave, what makes you believe that insurance companies will give up their stranglehold on drivers?  I can't imagine that they are going to relinquish the billions they collect in premiums without a fight; and I can sooner see them buy the technology and bury it.  Just my opinion............

 

Maynard

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Dave, what makes you believe that insurance companies will give up their stranglehold on drivers?

 

Simple:  They are driven by actuarial tables.  If those tables show reduced risk they HAVE to charge you less...or somebody else will or the regulators step in.

 

What makes you think they can continue to charge the same price for a 90% reduced risk?

 

Dave

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Who cares?

 

Keith

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Who cares?

 

People who are interested in science and technology that can improve our lives rather that just provide binge TV.  It's my hope my just turned 13 year old son won't have to face the risks of teen age driving.  He's smart enough to see the advantage as well.  A lot of people aren't. 

 

Dave

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The W222 chassis (s-class) Mercedes-Benz can be fully autonomous for 11 seconds. It is fully capable of indefinite range, but regulations keep it at 11 seconds with no hand on wheel. The tech is already there, it's been there. Gov't just can't keep pace with the technology and know how to regulate and adopt it.

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The S Class is where a lot of the technology starts in the auto industry. It's been that way for a long time. We all know Germans make good stuff...   :P

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The W222 chassis (s-class) Mercedes-Benz can be fully autonomous for 11 seconds. It is fully capable of indefinite range, but regulations keep it at 11 seconds with no hand on wheel. The tech is already there, it's been there. Gov't just can't keep pace with the technology and know how to regulate and adopt it.

 

It will happen quickly when government realizes the trillions it is going to save in infrastructure and other costs.  The billions and billions being planned for high speed rail are going to be a waste in most cases.  100 mph plus autonomous cars using existing infrastructure make a lot more sense.  They are slow, but they will wake up fairly suddenly.  I rather suspect Detroit is salivating at the prospect of replacing almost every vehicle on the road in a short cycle. 

 

Dave

Edited by Mallette
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S-class alone has more industry firsts and patents than some manufacturers have! I think part of it is fear of losing control. We want to hold the wheel and push the pedals. Heck- I took a 222 for a long test drive for a guy with squeaky brake concern. I took an off-ramp and had a light grip on the wheel.. The car determined I was driving lazily and it started to correct my skip cornering on the ramp. Technology is there, it's proven, and it's wonderful. But so many are afraid.

Sheesh- they're afraid of our Eco-mode start/stop feature. I've raced it- I can't get from brake pedal to gas pedal faster than the engine starts. But people are still afraid about - what if the engine doesn't re-start. Really? Do you not think we have fail safes on top of fail safes.

I think a lot of it is ignorance & fear that slows down regulation and advancement.

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I think a lot of it is ignorance & fear that slows down regulation and advancement.

 

Yes sir!  That is it.  I have worked with computers since day one.  When it comes to driving a vehicle I MUCH prefer a computer to be handling it.  It's stupidly simple for a computer, but it is far simpler to direct connect a computer to the control of the vehicle than to direct connect the human mind to it.  And why would we want to?  What use is driving?  Waste of time, and human lifetimes are absurdly short already.  Heck, better off masturbating than dealing with rush hour. 

 

Dave

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What about the people that actually ENJOY driving a car?

Kids can't dirve cars anymore because it's too dangerous? How on earth did I survive this long while driving my own cars AND riding a bike without a helmet?

Instead of letting some computer be in charge of your child's safety, why don't you actually teach him how to drive a car and hang up his cell phone and pay attention to the task at hand? My 6 year old and myself will be going to a professional driving class when he's ready to drive a car. I actually look forward to the experience that I will enjoy with my son.

There will always be a risk......automated cars can and will be hacked and driven remotely by complete strangers just for fun. How would you feel if your 13 year old son were injured while driving a hacked automated car?

And there is no chance in h-e-double-hockeysticks that the insurance companies will drop their rates by 90%. Who in the world would ever believe that. When my cars that were purchased new are worth 10% (or even 50%) of their original price does that mean that I would then pay 90% (I'd gladly pay even 50% less at that point) less for my insurance? I've never seen that happen.

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I like driving.  I don't ride in a car; I drive it.  Insurance companies will never lower their premiums by 20% much less 90% - that is a pipe-dream.  Never will all the existing cars on the road be replaced - that is nonsense of the highest order. 

 

But, hey, once people are driving autonomous cars and all the other pieces of personal monitoring sensors are in place, it won't be difficult for the government to issue a command that allows them to direct all targeted cars (and their passengers) to the train-car of the the governments choosing.

Edited by Autarchist
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It was only a matter of time before someone went off the deep end & into the government controlling where we drive.

This is why we can't have nice things.

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I'm sure there was the same pedestrian argument when EFI was introduced. But wtf man? The government is gonna control my fuel usage? I love rebuilding and tuning carbs!

Guess what... Carbs are still out there. Just as manual drive vehicles will be - because guess what- autonomous capable cars are already around you.

So sad that people live in a state of fear about technological advances.

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Dave, thanks for posting. It is really hard to imagine that transition. really interesting to contemplate. 

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While those lamenting the loss of old technology are always around us I am frankly surprised at the vociferous resistance to reducing the 60,000 deaths, 200,000 injuries, untold billions in health care cost, trillions in infrastructure investments, and billions of man hours lost to the total chaos that is our road system.  I suppose it is conditioning.  Even combat soldiers eventually get used to the idea of constant danger.

 

Friday I was delayed 25 minutes having to cross the ship channel bridge in order to turn around as the last exit south down the bay is mine and it was shut off.  When I passed where I could see it there was an mass of multicolored mangle smoke junk with PD, Fire, and Rescue all over the place.  Totally unnecessary.  Yesterday I was returning home.  Got to one mile from my house and hit a backup.  Took me 30 minutes to inch forward to my street.  If you really enjoy these sorts of thing, I feel for you.

 

If it is somehow a sacred right to be able to drive as you see fit, then why don't you fight against speed limits, stop signs, traffic lights and such?  After all, they are there for the same reasons many of us feel autonomous vehicles are an unmitigated blessing and the first fruits of real technology to change life on earth for the better.  Most have recognized that their personal freedoms must be limited when they can have an impact on others. 

 

I've lost friends and relatives over the years, and been involved in accidents that luckily didn't prove fatal.  As a radio news reporter I've seen suffering and death by vehicle up close and personal. 

 

Good riddance, say I.  There will be places for those who wish to risk life and limb for whatever pleasures they get from it.  I just want to kick back with a cold beer and enjoy the scenery knowing I am not going to get squashed by an amphetamine crazed, sleep-deprived truck or drunk fool.

 

Dave

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Lest you think I see nothing but blue skies, there are downsides for a lot of people.  Auto insurance offices, lawyers, cab drivers (Uber and Lyft were founded for THIS, not what they are doing now), truck drivers.  Somebody posted a while back there are 3.9 million truck drivers.  Yikes.  It seems obvious they'll be the first hit as the trucking companies have a huge interest in eliminating that cost.  Likely it will first be simply reduced.  The driver will still be in his seat, but hours will be extended to reduce cost since they can sleep, eat, watch TV or whatever the vast majority of the time.  The rigs are likely to be restricted to the right lane only, which will immediately greatly improve things in Houston for the rest of us.  Overturned or otherwise wrecked rigs snarl thousands almost daily here.  The rest of us will get used to being able to simply signal a lane change and have the rig react to let us in the lane.  Since the opposite is usually the case that will take a WHILE to get used to! 

 

Seems to me there will be a lot of job creation as well, at least I hope so.  There will be a lot of folks in need.  But that is the nature of paradigm shift.  I don't know how many were involved in the livery and other trades relative to the millions of horses in this country in 1900, but apparently they found other work. 

 

Dave

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Will an autonomous masturbation option be available?

 

Keith

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