Poll & Prediction: Autonomous Car Equipment at 5k by 2019

[Mallette]

"The bough that does not bend is soon broken."

 

Lao Tzu

[NBPK402]

Well hopefully the OS is not Microsoft, as I do not want to trust my life to Microsofts Alpha software. If it is Linux or Unix we have a better chance of no failures.

Edited March 17, 2015 by ellisr63

[Mallette]

Rest easy.  It will be none of those nor any "OS" at all.  Dedicated system like the one that handled the Apollo landings but with a half century of technology added. 

 

Dave

[anarchist]

Are you kidding?  It is a software on a chip.  One math error and we are all screwed.  It is sensors, GPS, and a computer program.  All of which have glitches.  A half century later and we still can't eliminate major defects in software and you propose this is some tech wonder? 

 

Do you have an OBD2 diagnostic tool?  You realize you can plug it into your Windows laptop and program your car yourself?  You know, do things like set the windows to automatically roll down at a certain temperature, tell the ABS system to dump all its brake fluid, set when your lights turn on or specify what functionality they have...  pretty much every system tied into the computer can be easily read (its using simple key/value) and set. 

 

The tool for my car:

 

Our product communicates with your car just like the factory tool does, and can access all of the systems in the car.

• Activates functions
• Supports coding changes

[Mallette]

We are not talking about a current car... 

 

And "I" am not kidding nor the source of the stuff I've put here.  Seems a bunch of you think that.  It is scientists, government people, head of automobile companies...people WAY over my head.  And as I mentioned their predictions cut the time lines almost at Moore's Law rates over the past couple of years. 

 

One of my friends once said it seemed like I lived in the past, present, and future all at the same time.  Change doesn't fright me, and I embrace it when it comes to technology and improvements in life.  I've watched an entire way of live in the South change over the past 65 years.  Much I miss, much to which I say good riddance, and what were we thinking.  Things I miss about an outhouse.  Going down there below freezing and in the rain isn't one of them.  Heck, I miss old time radio, even though I only heard a couple of years of it before TV wiped it out in a couple of years.  I watched an entire nation go from porch sitting to staring at a TV set and adjusting rabbit ears while cussing. 

 

Yes, I've had my hands inside car engines.  I've rebuilt a carburetor on the side of the road.  Never understood why people thought they were so complicated.  Laughed my butt off at a friend whose mechanic said his needed replacing and sold him one.  I used to carry points in my Beetle as they need them so often.  While there was a certain satisfaction in those tasks I do not miss cars essentially shot after 60,000 miles and all the crap that went with them. 

 

And I won't miss the 1 in 4 idiots on Houston freeways who fully believe it's all about them and constantly lane change without a signal at absurd speeds every morning and afternoon with realizing what anti-social, self-centered idiots they are.  I'll bet they get to work 2 minutes faster than I do (when they make it) while I simply find a lane and drive at the prevailing speed of traffic. 

 

After the incredibly vociferous anger here at this news I realize men (I've yet to meet a mother or a woman who isn't really looking forward to this) really have some mystical connection to risk, speed, and some belief they are actually in control.  I'll bet they had the same reaction when laws went into effect banning horses from roads and streets. 

 

Please don't take this out on me.  I am not even the messenger...it's all over the place.  You have a few years left of freedom of the open range and at least a decade or more until it's mostly closed...enjoy them and peace unto you. 

 

Dave

[oscarsear]

Like many souls I am afraid of heights........ always have been.  Might be made worse by my odd vision trouble.  When I drive a car I can deal with heights fairly readily because my mind is occupied.  But if I am the passenger - yikes!  Mountainous roads, tall bridges... any bridge...... they all leave me severely distressed.  

 

In a way I think this defines the general aversion to autodriving-automobiles.  We have had it hammered into us to 'pay attention' to driving.  "Eyes on the road, 10 and 2 on the wheel, etc."  Inattention leads to accidents.  We have all had our close calls.  Most of us have been in accidents.  It seems unnatural - counterintuitive to hop into a car and TRUST it to safely convey us anywhere.  Maybe, in time.... maybe - that behavior can be modified.  But you cannot blame anyone for being a little uneasy with altering such a basic concept that has been fundamentally sound for all of our lives.  Having worked in medicine I have seen what gets peeled from mangled vehicles.  There's nothing like a ride in a Cuisinart to ruin your whole day.

 

Have some patience and understanding.  Were not a bunch of backward dolts defying progress.  We share varying degrees of skepticism that are well anchored in loads and tons of experience(s).  

[Mallette]

I believe that, Oscar, and share it.  I will be very, very nervous in spite of my faith in technology.  I've an inside source, my father in law.  He test drives stuff for everybody, including Lamborghini's, Ferrari's, and... Audi.  He won't tell me about the latest as it's top secret...but self parallel parking he talks about.  For most, a butt pucker experience twisting the neck and such while hoping for the best.  He says it's absolute perfection and totally bizarre, as well as taking a while to get used to.  He pulls ahead as we normally do, and the car says "I'll take it from here," then puts it perfectly in spaces most of us wouldn't dare and tells you before hand if it isn't going to work out. 

 

This is now common option on 100s of thousands of cars and the liability is significant...yet it's working fine even though beyond human driver skills. 

 

I am willing to give the builders the benefit of the doubt since the liability lies with THEM.  I believe in science and technology.  The most conservative site I could find, a pilot's site, went so far as to say 1 out of a 100 airliner landings are under automatic control. 

 

You feeling lucky?  I do.

 

Dave

[anarchist]

No anger directed towards anyone and I realize you are ever the optimist and 'imagine' how things will work - rosy glasses and all.   I, however, am not feeling lucky given the various warnings from manufacturers and industry experts.  While you offer a 'future is so bright' perspective, the reality according to the experts:

 

"Hacking is one of the biggest threats facing future driverless or semi-autonomous vehicles, an expert on cyber-security has warned...He added that software systems had to become far more reliable before autonomous vehicles could be trusted not to go wrong. A recent report found that 98% of software applications tested had serious defects, some with 10 to 15 faults each, he pointed out."

 

An FBI report warned that autonomous cars may be used as "lethal weapons".

 

'As driverless cars eventually become ubiquitous, we will hand over decision making in a potentially fatal incident to an autonomous system. So can a car really make that decision? And if it can, should it?  “The short answer in human ethical terms is this: ‘The car is only trying to save itself,’” says Matthew Strebe, CEO of Connetic, who is developing autonomous cybersecurity defense solutions.'

 

Regarding the crackpot idea that insurance will drop...  an insurance industry report states  “With less reliance on a human driver’s input, however, increased risk would be associated with the car technology itself,” says the report, pointing out how a car can do things like seeing through fog, which a human driver can’t. “However, [the technology] can also fail, and systems are only as good as their designers and programmers. With an increased complexity of hardware and software used in cars, there will also be more that can go wrong.”

 

The authors of the report suggest that a computing error in cars could have a much more devastating effect in a crash than a human error. “A computer miscalculation or a faulty reading from a sensor could lead a car to do something that a human driver would instinctively realize is inappropriate,” they say.

 

As it commonly goes with new Internet of Things devices, hacking and cyber threats are also a very real issue.Just last summer, a group of Chinese students demonstrated how they could compromise a Tesla Model S, opening its doors while driving. If the students were malicious actors, passengers could be at serious risk. In fact, there are some who are entirely assured that this is a matter of when, not if.

 

[A]ll modern vehicles are Internet-connected, and the protections in place to prevent hacking are “haphazard” or nonexistent.

 

These folks all discuss the autonomous car being 10 to 15 years away if the kinks get worked out and it should be noted that the most advanced vehicles today are limited to a pathetic 25MPH. 

 

No thank you.

[Travis In Austin]

The cars will travel as fast as design limits, and I'd MUCH prefer a computer handling snow and ice than any human.

 

Spoken like a man who's never watched a world rally race.

I would much prefer michelle Mouton driving me than a computer.

[Don Richard]

Well, here you go. It seems that a geomagnetic storm caused by solar activity hit earth yesterday and one thing that was affected was... GPS systems. Our local TV station reported that navigation systems on cars were sending drivers to incorrect locations. They showed a reporter's car sitting in their parking lot with the GPS saying he was 8 miles away! Can you imagine millions of cars automatically making incorrect turns simultaneously all over the country? Sheesh.

Edited March 18, 2015 by Don Richard

[Mallette]

Okies, at least some input. 

 

"Hacking is one of the biggest threats facing future driverless or semi-autonomous vehicles, an expert on cyber-security has warned...He added that software systems had to become far more reliable before autonomous vehicles could be trusted not to go wrong. A recent report found that 98% of software applications tested had serious defects, some with 10 to 15 faults each, he pointed out."

 

Can't figure this one out.  Absolutely nothing specific in there.  What "software systems?"  Current vehicles are totally dependent on software systems whose failure will bring them to a complete stop.  So are airliners and hospitals.  As to hacking into the car, my understanding is that while the GPS or cell towers might be hacked to misdirect or whatever the onboard systems will be read only...just like any critical system.  Some vulnerability but as mentioned earlier it is  anticipated by experts that vehicles will always be able to go either automatically or by panic switch a fail safe closed system mode. 

 

An FBI report warned that autonomous cars may be used as "lethal weapons".

 

Also no context.  Does he mean like airliners or guns?  Heck, automobiles have been one of the most common lethal weapons for years.

 

Regarding the crackpot idea that insurance will drop... an insurance industry report states “With less reliance on a human driver’s input, however, increased risk would be associated with the car technology itself,” says the report, pointing out how a car can do things like seeing through fog, which a human driver can’t. “However, [the technology] can also fail, and systems are only as good as their designers and programmers. With an increased complexity of hardware and software used in cars, there will also be more that can go wrong.”

 

No mention of HOW a rider, let's say a 10 year old being taken to school, can be held liable for the actions of a computer.  Now THAT is a crackpot idea. 

 

The authors of the report suggest that a computing error in cars could have a much more devastating effect in a crash than a human error. “A computer miscalculation or a faulty reading from a sensor could lead a car to do something that a human driver would instinctively realize is inappropriate,” they say.

 

Duh.  Now, just how much more "devastating" than the smoking, unrecognizable hulks I see on Houston freeways is hard to figure.  However, I'll concede that point with the proviso that predictions are it will happen 90% less often under autonomy.  Fair trade, IMHO.

 

[A]ll modern vehicles are Internet-connected, and the protections in place to prevent hacking are “haphazard” or nonexistent.

 

Agreed.  Millions and millions being poured into that as we speak and some of the best minds in the business on it.  You can bet DOD is involved as this is a national security issue for them as well as for the public.  Couple of quotes from less than "crackpot" sources:

 

In many roles, unmanned planes are more efficient: they carry neither a bulky pilot nor the kit that keeps him alive, which means they can both turn faster and be stealthier. And if they are shot down, no one dies. Even the F-35's champions concede that it will probably be the last manned strike fighter aircraft the West will build.  (From the Economist)

 

"There are those that see JSF as the last manned fighter. I'm one that's inclined to believe that."  Adm. Mike Mullen...in 2011.  If you think a hacked car is a problem, I'd be seriously concerned if you have an AFB with these, SR-72s, or B-3 bombers nearby. 

 

IMHO, hacked cars are the least of our worries. 

 

Point is that, best I can tell, whoever is quoted above isn't running the show.  And, even then, they are saying "10-15 years out."  Of course that is silly given the 2016 and 2017 models already announced...which means they are already road tested, probably by my father in law.  However, he ain't talking.

 

Dave

[Mallette]

Well, here you go. It seems that a geomagnetic storm caused by solar activity hit earth yesterday and one thing that was affected was... GPS systems. Our local TV station reported that navigation systems on cars were sending drivers to incorrect locations. They showed a reporter's car sitting in their parking lot with the GPS saying he was 8 miles away! Can you imagine millions of cars automatically making incorrect turns simultaneously all over the country? Sheesh

 

Relevance? 

 

Dave

[Mallette]

Here's an annoyance for those of us stuck with manual drive that will eventually happen if it hasn't already.

 

I was thinking about how my father in law said that the auto parking feature put cars in places he'd probably pass on, and did so perfectly.  Given he is a professional driver trained on 700hp at Daytona with 30 years and multiple million miles experience, that's something.

 

Occurred to me it will be a nightmare if I parallel park somewhere and while out, two such equipped cars park on either side of me at their minimum clearance distances.  I suppose I can work it out, but probably really annoying if we are talking inches and I'll need a spotter.

 

Dave

Edited March 18, 2015 by Mallette

[JJkizak]

Speaking of software reliability I wonder why someone hasn't implemented the military "tertiary" systems that are used in

the communication systems that send three identical messages spaced in time to alleviate any reception  problems at

the other end. If you did this with an OS that thing would be reliable as hell. (Two out of three have to match at the receiving end

for error free reception)

JJK

[Mallette]

Back in the day we used CRC for that and it didn't fail that I can recall.  OTOH, I hope there is no "OS" as such as that is both an abstraction layer as well as creating other issues.  If it IS an OS, then I'd certainly want it in ROM. 

 

Dave

[Don Richard]

 

Well, here you go. It seems that a geomagnetic storm caused by solar activity hit earth yesterday and one thing that was affected was... GPS systems. Our local TV station reported that navigation systems on cars were sending drivers to incorrect locations. They showed a reporter's car sitting in their parking lot with the GPS saying he was 8 miles away! Can you imagine millions of cars automatically making incorrect turns simultaneously all over the country? Sheesh

 

Relevance? 

 

Dave

 

 

If a future event like this one, or worse, occurs, massive traffic jams, if not large numbers of accidents, will happen if autonomous vehicles are mandated. If you think the Houston spaghetti bowl is a mess now, just wait.

[Mallette]

Fail safe, DR.  They only rely partly on GPS and then only for general location.  Otherwise they'd run into all sorts of each other and whatever...civilian GPS is only good to about 10 feet.  Further, they will cache the current trip as well as use other onboard means to verify.  If all else fails, they'd simply tell you they are lost and to take over.  Bet you never say that to your wife...   

 

Since it's quite inexpensive to do, I suspect there will be simple low power transmitters on the street signs in the NTD future to eliminate that altogether...as well as provide privacy.  

 

Dave

Edited March 18, 2015 by Mallette

[Gilbert]

Honestly, I don't have a horse in this race (as it were), and no emotions. Simply looking around at what is happening.

 

 

Which and How Many books/magazines do you go through in a month that are dedicated to the automobile?

Edited March 19, 2015 by Gilbert

[Gilbert]

 

 

The cars will travel as fast as design limits, and I'd MUCH prefer a computer handling snow and ice than any human.

 

Spoken like a man who's never watched a world rally race.

I would much prefer michelle Mouton driving me than a computer.

 

 

She's a bit dried out and crusty by now.....

 

For me, for mixed or pure off road, I'd love to ride shotgun with Sebastien Loeb..... or even Ivan Stewart.

[anarchist]

I prefer to drive, not ride shotgun - to human or computer.  I would rather drive cross-country than fly.  I would really like if we had one lane where a guy with a specialized license could drive upwards of 120mph and not have morons in it.  In Texas there are parts where qualified drivers should be able to exceed 180.