Gilbert Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 I don't pick and choose sure you do, that's what this whole thread is about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbert Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 The point is that it` does not work unless every car on the road is autonomous. Unfortunately, not even under those circumstances can it work.... the possible scenarios are endless, there is no one-size fits all..... Not even if the path traveled is limited to autonomous vehicles only. That dog won't hunt, not without allowing human intervention. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Richard Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 (edited) Your autonomous car will not stop an inattentive driver from smashing your autonomous car and injuring or killing those that you care about. Yes, it will, or at least ensure minimum undesirable event. Not sure why you are such a non-believer in technology. If you want everything handling manually in a hospital your survival chances are going down. Dave Last October I left work and was traveling down the middle lane of a 3 lane city street. I stopped for a red light, first in line. I left when the light turned green and 100 or so feet away I heard a bunch of crashing and banging on the right side of my truck and turned to see a small car scraping down the side. I changed into the right lane in front of him and pulled over onto the right hand shoulder and the small car pulled in behind me. The Camry had hit my right front fender with its mirror, causing a basketball sized dent that continued down the side of my truck to about halfway down the bed. An old man, probably in his mid 80s, got out and came over to look. I asked if he was alright, and he said he was, in a heavy foreign accent. He wasn't drunk or anything, but was unsteady on his feet in the grass on the side of the road so I took his arm and helped him back to his car and called the police. I looked at his car and saw the driver's side mirror dangling down the side of the door. It was black, not the color of the car's body like the mirror on the passenger side. It had been recently replaced. The rest of the car was banged up and dented on both sides and the front bumper. It was obvious that this was not the first time he had hit something with his car. In this case, if both vehicles were autonomous this accident may have been prevented. However, this guy never should have been issued a drivers license in the first place, IMO. I suspect he had some sort of vision problem - I mean, how can someone miss seeing a full size Chevy pickup in the next lane? Someone at the DMV screwed up letting him drive in the first place. And if he were in an autonomous vehicle whose systems had failed, then he would have to take over control, a task I do not believe he could do safely. In short, autonomous vehicles are still in the future. People who want one might be able to buy one in a few years, but what about the other conventional vehicles on the road? I don't see them being outlawed anytime soon and some bad drivers will still be driving them. In my case, if my truck was autonomous and his wasn't, he still would have hit me. There is no defense against a driver who moves over on you like he did. Why not toughen the standards to get a driver's license and actually make people demonstrate that they can handle a vehicle in varying conditions? Right now all you have to do is drive around a parking lot and demonstrate that you can parallel park, neither of which has anything to do with driving on city streets and highways. This could be done immediately and would reduce accidents and deaths dramatically, at little or no cost. Edited March 22, 2015 by Don Richard 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted March 23, 2015 Author Share Posted March 23, 2015 In short, autonomous vehicles are still in the future. Yes, sir. Three months. http://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/teslas-semi-autonomous-autopilot-system-goes-live-in-three-months/ Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Richard Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 In short, autonomous vehicles are still in the future. Yes, sir. Three months. http://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/teslas-semi-autonomous-autopilot-system-goes-live-in-three-months/ Dave From the linked article: Musk has hinted that the system can evolve into something that can take over all driving duties, but for now it will be a bit more limited. Drivers will only be able to engage the system on highways, and it will only control a car’s steering. The meat bag behind it will still need to be awake and alert. Not quite fitting the definition of autonomous. Perhaps it could be coupled with adaptive cruise control for a more fully automated experience? Just hope it's not like the adaptive cruise control that was installed in the vehicle that Car and Driver columnist John Phillips was driving on I-90 when this happened: "There was no traffic in front, none behind, none in the opposite lanes. That's when the car, wholly unbidden, braked violently. Loose items in the cockpit rocketed forward, and the seatbelts cinched to chest flattening pressure. My wife cried out, and I was so thunderstruck that I couldn't think how to react. I recalled saying, "What?" a couple of times, which did surprisingly little to mitigate the crisis. Then I decided to pound the brakes - bleeding more speed, maybe to as little as 20 mph - which disengaged the cruise control. That corrected the problem, although I achieved this result with no greater purpose than to cease being startled. If an 18 wheeler had been tailgating, well, the Kia would be MIA." Three months? I'm thinking more like 10-15 years before the bugs will be worked out (we hope) and the vehicles will become fully autonomous. Human drivers do cause accidents, but as Paul Erlich said, "To err is human, but to really foul things up you need a computer." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T2K Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Only when my daily commute looks like this, will I ever even consider an autonomous automobile,...... maybe. Here's what my commute looks like on the first of every month. Keith Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seti Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 It seems most people aren't really driving anyway. Most are txting. It would make me feel safer if they were autonomous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted March 23, 2015 Author Share Posted March 23, 2015 Not quite fitting the definition of autonomous. Expected that interpretation. So what part of hands off the wheel is not autonomous? If you have almost no time to react with your hands on the wheel and feet on the gas/brake, just how is not having either not defined as autonomous and what is your likely hood of achieving situational awareness and taking action in a split second call compared to the vehicles? And, of course he's saying the occupant need stay aware. That's called easing in. But if he did not have confidence in the vehicle handling the situation it wouldn't be happening at all. Followed the link on the Kia incident. Here's what it lead to: 410: This content was permanently removed/unpublished from NewsCentral. Possible reasons:NewsCentral news rank very low DMCA Notice (Copyright infringement) Adult content / Drugs / Sexual harassment Non-legal content Other reasons Here is the actual article at Car and Driver: http://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2015-kia-k900-v-8-long-term-test-update-review This is all he said in a long article about the car: "At approximately 11,400 miles, the adaptive cruise control falsely identified a vehicle ahead and threw the K900 into a full panic stop on I-90 in southeastern Montana. A scary event. Could a giant bug have splattered on the radar’s lens? So far, we all have theories but no hard data." Why the difference? I don't know. However, in trying to track it down what I saw were page after page of increasingly glowing articles about "Adaptive Cruise and Why You Will Love It" and such. Interesting thing was that unfiltered for date range they went back 5 years and the stunning thing is the speed of improvement and the growing absolute adoration of the automobile review sites. If you are afraid of flying, all you will see is plane crash stories. If you hate air bags, nothing but how people have been injured by them or accidents caused by deployment at the wrong time. If you are a gun hater, deaths from shooting the wrong person or children finding guns. However, if you are objective, you find something about closer to fact. A couple of pages back a comment was made to the effect the car could car less about you and was going to take car of itself. I thought it was so absurd I didn't bother. I only HOPE the car does that, and the airplane does too. If they take care of themselves I'll be fine. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted March 23, 2015 Author Share Posted March 23, 2015 It seems most people aren't really driving anyway. Most are txting. It would make me feel safer if they were autonomous Amen. What I see on Houston freeways is that many have "oblivious cruise control" engaged. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Richard Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 (edited) And, of course he's saying the occupant need stay aware. That's called easing in. But if he did not have confidence in the vehicle handling the situation it wouldn't be happening at all. Followed the link on the Kia incident. Here's what it lead to: 410: This content was permanently removed/unpublished from NewsCentral. Possible reasons: NewsCentral news rank very low DMCA Notice (Copyright infringement) Adult content / Drugs / Sexual harassment Non-legal content Other reasons Here is the actual article at Car and Driver: http://www.caranddri...t-update-review This is all he said in a long article about the car: "At approximately 11,400 miles, the adaptive cruise control falsely identified a vehicle ahead and threw the K900 into a full panic stop on I-90 in southeastern Montana. A scary event. Could a giant bug have splattered on the radar’s lens? So far, we all have theories but no hard data." What I typed was a quote from the first paragraph of Phillips' Upfront column in the February 2015 issue of Car and Driver, page 30, titled, "Ghosts in the Machine." If you are afraid of flying, all you will see is plane crash stories Funny you should mention plane crashes. In the second paragraph of his column he recounts the Air France Flight 447 disaster, where 225 people died. The gist of his article is that, as automation replaces human involvement, human competence declines. Then when the automation fails, we humans don't know what to do. We will have forgotten how. The Predator drones we are using are flown remotely from bases in the US. I hear talk of creating autonomous drones, which will have the capability of self-firing a Hellfire missile. I think we need a human operator in control of such things, such as the operator who was ordered to fire on a car speeding across the desert in Afghanistan. Then he noticed the flowers. The car contained a couple who had just been married and he noticed the flowers from the wedding laying on the shelf under the rear window. He aborted the missile strike. An autonomous drone would have vaporized the young couple. It would not have known what the flowers meant. Much development needs to be done on self-driving cars before they are ready for prime time. Driver training on what to do when these systems fail, and they will fail, has to be implemented when these things hit the road. All I know is that if I am still fit to drive when that happens, I won't want one. Edited March 23, 2015 by Don Richard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anarchist Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 A couple of pages back a comment was made to the effect the car could car less about you and was going to take car of itself. I thought it was so absurd I didn't bother. I only HOPE the car does that, and the airplane does too. If they take care of themselves I'll be fine. Dave Sure you do. We will see if that's your sentiment when it decides to go off a cliff instead of facing a potential collision with a semi; wait, that is absurd, you won't be capable of sentiment. I should expect such bullish acceptance and simplification of technology and the inherent complications; you tend to enter these conversations with boyish naivete rather than thoughtful consideration. Autonomous cars? Of course, you think they are around the corner and will end world hunger as well. After all, you think we could construct a conveyor and mine the moon in the next 6 months or create a warp engine and travel to Mars next year. I have to ask myself what does it hurt and why bother to participate. Boys need to have dreams and I am glad age hasn't hurt your ability to dream. Go on and dream Dave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted March 23, 2015 Author Share Posted March 23, 2015 The gist of his article is that, as automation replaces human involvement, human competence declines. Then when the automation fails, we humans don't know what to do. We will have forgotten how. DR, I don't find much in your last post to disagree with, especially the above. How long has it been since you manually calculated a square root or used a log table? It's a natural progression. I am pretty lousy on a horse, and, in fact, won't get one that isn't essentially autonomous. My dad had total command and expertise on horseback being raised in west Texas and being a cowboy in the early 20th century. My son will learn to drive, but will likely be the last generation to do so for anything other than sport. Now that you mention it, it probably won't be too long before there are autonomous races where the technology is honed to extreme. Entirely new sport. Vehicles cross wired to protect themselves at all cost...but win. Fascinating concept. It's also occurred to me due to something that was said where newer AVs are likely to have every wheel complete separate for breaking and drive purposes...something no human at any level of skill could handle. Lost skills/ Absolutely. As I've said elsewhere a major solar outbreak like the 1859 even would already cripple human civilization. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted March 23, 2015 Author Share Posted March 23, 2015 (edited) Sure you do. We will see if that's your sentiment when it decides to go off a cliff instead of facing a potential collision with a semi; wait, that is absurd, you won't be capable of sentiment. That's absurd. How would you square that with the programs primary directive of protecting itself? As to the rest you are moving towards ad hominem in the sense of putting concepts in my mouth that simply are not there. As mentioned above, the loss of basic skills might well be fatal to us all. For another century or so we will be vulnerable to events that, in many cases in the past, would never have even been noticed. The technology to survive them will come if we make it long enough to develop it and spread through the solar system and beyond. Otherwise, the planet may get a chance to heal without our presence at all. If you see that as a boys dream, you have a pretty strange idea of dreams. More like a nightmare. But that was not the subject. If you want me to list 10 things that are certainties at one point or the other that could destroy us all due to our reliance on technology I can do that. I look a the big picture, not just through blinders or rose colored glasses. Dave Edited March 23, 2015 by Mallette Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anarchist Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 (edited) Sure you do. We will see if that's your sentiment when it decides to go off a cliff instead of facing a potential collision with a semi; wait, that is absurd, you won't be capable of sentiment. That's absurd. How would you square that with the programs primary directive of protecting itself? Because you can't always protect yourself. You are faced with two choices. Neither is good. Your primary directive means squat. The case above is real simple... the car seeks to avoid total destruction of the impact of the semi, attempts to run on the shoulder to avoid the accident, and not having any ability to identify the shoulder is soft, goes right over the edge - just like so many cars traveling in South America. Listen, there is plenty of information on this and the problems inherent in the technology. There are seminars and books on 'prime directives' and the shortcomings of computer programs. I posted you links to various things that highlight those issues and more. You dispute them and think it is all so simple. Fantastic. You go right ahead and rely on HAL. There is a very big problem when you remove man's ability to reason from the equation. There is no dispute. Edited March 23, 2015 by Autarchist Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eth2 Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 (edited) While those lamenting the loss of old technology are always around us I am frankly surprised at the vociferous resistance to reducing the 60,000 deaths, 200,000 injuries, untold billions in health care cost, trillions in infrastructure investments, and billions of man hours lost to the total chaos that is our road system I truly enjoy driving. I do not want to be chauffeured. I want to turn the key, put the car in gear, put my foot on the gas, and DRIVE to my destination, or no destination at all. We could lower deaths by accidents even more significantly if we hooked ourselves up to a feeding tube and never got out of the chair. Sorry, not for me. Edited March 23, 2015 by eth2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eth2 Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Dave, Do you remember the first time you were allowed to take the car by yourself? Do you remember the first time you put your foot on the gas and just went...all by yourself? Does that compare to your first train, subway, bus ride? I think not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted March 23, 2015 Author Share Posted March 23, 2015 Earl, I dreaded the thought of trying to control a couple of thousand pounds of metal. Decades later I've become convinced it's humanly impossible and the evidence is there to prove it. We've simply conditioned ourselves to what we perceive as a necessary risk. Our children will not have that issue and will wonder at how we lived with it. Dave You dispute them and think it is all so simple. I neither recall any links nor disputing them. The case of the South American road is typically extreme and unsurvivable by human or machine...though the machine would almost certainly have the edge. I still simply fail to understand the anger, fear, and denial. It is already here, and will spread. It's fairly obvious big business is a lot more sanguine that you guys both about the technology as well as people's willingness to adapt. That's precisely what I hear from Elon. He voices the beginning in very cautious terms, even though he believes his technology fully ready. He'd be a total fool to issue that software update if he did not believe it ready. Yes, not proven yet. But we will see in three months. If S cars are crashing left and right you guys will get a reprieve while lessons learned are incorporated. I have my fingers crossed, but there are no guarantees. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anarchist Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 (edited) No need to wait 3 months. Parts of this have been around for a while. It ain't exactly new. You can buy cars already that will parallel park, or stay within lanes (and find stories of real fear in decreasing radius corners), or use adaptive cruise control, or stop if a pedestrian is detected or any of a dozen other discrete functions. The "new" (and the bad) will be autonomous systems that don't rely on a driver to correct the computer. This should make your day. http://www.technologytell.com/in-car-tech/11358/autonomous-q-ship-letting-infiniti-q50s-hybrid-drive/ That isn't a fully autonomous car. Lux research offers the following statistics regarding your time frames: Breaking down the 2030 car market, Lux says that 92% of self-driving cars will only be “Level 2″ meaning that they have adaptive cruise control, lane departure warnings, and other semi-autonomous features. Level 3 cars will also be available but will not be as popular. According to Lux, Level 3 cars will work similarly to those being demonstrated by Google right now. Fully autonomous cars (AKA Level 4) could be available in extremely small quantities but there won’t be any by 2030 unless a technological breakthrough occurs. Edited March 23, 2015 by Autarchist Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Earl, I dreaded the thought of trying to control a couple of thousand pounds of metal. You had to have beeen the only teen age boy who has ever thought that about driving and getting their license. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted March 23, 2015 Author Share Posted March 23, 2015 Crikey, mate. Made my butt pucker... Just because I believe in this technology doesn't mean it doesn't scare me shitless. These guys must have had a LOT of get to know it time before they pulled that. OTOH, I was amazed at how little the steering wheel moved compared to when a person is driving. Thanks for the link...I hadn't seen that one. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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