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Poll & Prediction: Autonomous Car Equipment at 5k by 2019


Mallette
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Autonomous Vehicles: Good or Bad  

49 members have voted

  1. 1. Are autonomous vehicles a good witch, or a bad witch?

    • Good
      20
    • Bad
      28


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You had to have beeen the only teen age boy who has ever thought that about driving and getting their license.

 

Well, I was just a little different.  I fully understood where babies came from and held off from a lot of activities that rather astounded my peers and some of my girl friends.  My son is the same way, and I did NOT teach it to him.  I was amazed to hear him say that watching traffic in Houston didn't really create much enthusiasm to learn to drive.  But, we've taught him already and let him drive up in Arkansas out in the country. 

 

In my own case I think I was already a bit more objective and analytical than my peers.  No more intelligent, mind you.  I don't claim any more  than average intelligence.  But I DO have a streak of analytics and objectivity.  And it has served me well.  My son has it to, and a much bigger dose of intelligence as well.  BTW...just because I an thinking about him at the moment, he gets his Second AND First Class scout rank a week from tonight.  Proud, I am.

 

Dave

Edited by Mallette
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Steering wheel doesn't need to move.  It isn't actually connected to the wheels.  It's electric steering and drive by wire.  Which by the way is the reason I bought a used car instead of a new car recently - they switched to electric steering (as a precursor of course.).  End result: loss of feel and changing response during transitions from wet to dry roads.  No thanks.

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Steering wheel doesn't need to move.  It isn't actually connected to the wheels.  It's electric steering and drive by wire.  Which by the way is the reason I bought a used car instead of a new car recently - they switched to electric steering (as a precursor of course.).  End result: loss of feel and changing response during transitions from wet to dry roads.  No thanks.

 

 

depending on how old your used car is, you may be driving a vehicle with drive by wire throttle.  Your cruise most likely is also.

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Autonomous trucks in use already.  Yes, not in traffic...but a proving ground for sure, and if they can navigate these conditions freeways will be child's play.  Looks like they are suggesting costs cut nearly in half.  It also appears there is a remote operator monitoring several at a time.  That will ultimately not be necessary.  I think it interesting they say "program in your best drivers best practices." 

 

Dave

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That's a pretty cool site, Autarchist.  Here's a piece on Volvo's plans with a bit about insurance I've been saying all along.  Just basic common sense, IMHO. 

 

"Better cue the tort lawyers. Volvo in an interview with CNET said there would be an autonomous vehicle by 2017. However, according to Volvo’s Vision 2020, that leaves a three-year gap to get their shit together. Which is a good thing, because Volvo’s stance is as follows: If you are driving, it’s your fault. If the car is driving, it’s Volvo’s.
 

According to Volvo: “By 2020, nobody shall be seriously injured or killed in a new Volvo.” This statement from 2008 clearly formulates a long-term vision to create cars that will not crash. Volvo Cars’ strategy to achieve Vision 2020 includes cooperating with social partners, integrating preventative and protective safety systems into the car and, in particular, better understanding people in traffic situations. Driver behavior is a contributing factor in more than 90% of all accidents.

Volvo Cars safety expert Anders Eugensson said, “The goal is unique in that Volvo Cars has designated a year and is showing a social responsibility that also extends to people in other vehicles and pedestrians. We are very clear about the fact that our cars should not negatively affect other people at the moment of an accident. In addition, no unprotected road users should be seriously injured or killed.”

 

Looks like sound philosophy, as well as aggressive schedule.

 

Dave

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I don't mean to sound like a Debbie downer, but.......

 

No one will die in a Volvo in 5 years????  I don't believe that, but I think these safety mechanisms will certainly help. I don't think they can make all reasonable decisions like a real driver, but certainly better than a drunk one.

 

 

 

We made this in the 60's as a game changer

 

SR-71.jpg

 

 

We made this in the 90's as a game changer

 

 

1st_Toyota_Prius_--_01-13-2010.jpg

 

 

Now leave it up to Google and Volvo to make us more lazy and even less accountable.

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No one will die in a Volvo in 5 years???? I don't believe that, but I think these safety mechanisms will certainly help. I don't think they can make all reasonable decisions like a real driver, but certainly better than a drunk one.

 

I understand that.  Not being a downer, being a realist.  However, the experts in the field at least strongly believe they have evidence that autonomous vehicle vs human won't even be a remote challenge.  The "realists" among them talk of eventual fatalities in the less than airliner crash area.  They believe there will be more accidents than airline crashes, but that the few than happen will be eminently survivable. 

 

So when he says "die," he really believes the science suggests that is feasible. 

 

I haven't put much of what I think in here.  When I mentioned liability insurance going away I hadn't seen a reference to it, but it was, and is, simply obvious.  Since then I've seen references...including this one...from those in far better position than I to make such calls who fully agree.

 

It's obvious that those who wish to hold on to their horse to the bitter end will pay more and more to do so as the insurance pool gets smaller and smaller.  I plan to put my liability insurance into a nicer car...one with Klipsch in it!  :D

 

Dave

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However, the experts in the field at least strongly believe they have evidence that autonomous vehicle vs human won't even be a remote challenge.

Dave

 

Please provide a citation to a source.  Nothing I have seen suggests the above is true; every reputable source I have reviewed reveals exactly the opposite.

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Easiest available is post 126.  I frankly don't have the time to hunt down others, but that statement from Volvo certainly mirrors the feelings of all the major manufacturers that AV will be far superior to human drivers and the risks reducible to decimal points from zero...or he and the rest have bats in their belfries as some here seem to assume I do.

 

While it was my own thought brought forth from the controversy here, the ability of an autonomous vehicle to understand the precise conditions present under every wheel separately and address them separately in real time is a massive advantage that no human could approach. 

 

That is what I LOVE about this place.  Being under fire from minds I really respect forces me to THINK.  I like that. 

 

Again, I just think that way. 

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The cars will travel as fast as design limits, and I'd MUCH prefer a computer handling snow and ice than any human.

 

Spoken like a man who's never watched a world rally race.

I would much prefer michelle Mouton driving me than a computer.

 

She's a bit dried out and crusty by now.....

 

For me, for mixed or pure off road, I'd love to ride shotgun with Sebastien Loeb..... or even Ivan Stewart.

Well that is probably true, so old and crusty that she now runs World Rally for FIA. She drove in Group B, a class that at the end had over 500 hp but driver and spectator deaths led to the ban on Group B and they are now running at what, 300hp in WRC?

post-13028-0-68920000-1427153285_thumb.j

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Steering wheel doesn't need to move.  It isn't actually connected to the wheels.  It's electric steering and drive by wire.  Which by the way is the reason I bought a used car instead of a new car recently - they switched to electric steering (as a precursor of course.).  End result: loss of feel and changing response during transitions from wet to dry roads.  No thanks.

 

Electric steering isn't necessarily the problem....try driving an FRS or BRZ sometime. They capture the feel of the car with an electric steering system....it's just an issue of design priority.

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Imagine the possibilities - NASCAR races without drivers, the Indianapolis 500 by Artificial Intelligence, procreation exclusively by laboratory tubes...it is all so exciting. At the same time they can catheterize all of us so we will not have to get off the couch. A brave and exciting new world awaits.

Technological progress has merely provided us with more efficient means for going backwards.

Aldous Huxley

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Imagine the possibilities - NASCAR races without drivers, the Indianapolis 500 by Artificial Intelligence, procreation exclusively by laboratory tubes...it is all so exciting.

 

Human piloted racing will continue unabated as the lust for flaming death will continue unabated from the desire to see a great driver become immortal.  But the AV cars with no limits will be a whole new sport and proving ground.  Since AVs won't take dumb risks and nobody is going to program them to risk human life, mixed racing isn't in the cards.

 

AVs will be programmed to win at all costs and will race against humans in the hidden places cock fights, dog fights, and the like take place...

 

I love it when I am made to think!

 

Dave

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However, the experts in the field at least strongly believe they have evidence that autonomous vehicle vs human won't even be a remote challenge.

Dave

 

Please provide a citation to a source.  Nothing I have seen suggests the above is true; every reputable source I have reviewed reveals exactly the opposite.

 

 

What experts you talking to Dave? Marketing brochures?

 

I've had several at length conversations on this subject with the actual engineers designing autonomous vehicles and writing the actual algorithms...mostly guys at Google, but a few other companies that I probably shouldn't name. The massive limiting factor to all things computerized is the interface to the analog world. The mechanisms by which a computer observes the world are inherently slow - especially when compared to humans. The observation rate is hard to talk about without getting into very technical details, but it's a hard limit....not something that will be solved over time with the "right technology"....unless you wanna believe we can travel faster than light, but then why have cars if that's possible?

 

Ask your "experts" if they think they can automate a formula 1 car to drive faster than the slowest formula 1 driver. Heck, I'm fairly confident that I would beat any computerized car in a race for speed....and I'm only an amateur racer. Racing is the perfect environment to compare humans versus autonomous because it highlights the observation rates and premonition that a human driver brings to the table. Sure, once a computer observes something it can theoretically implement a more precise corrective action, but the point is that it won't ever observe it fast enough to where the human wouldn't be able to correct for their imprecision and net a faster lap time. The same mechanisms going into maneuvering that corner faster are the same mechanisms needed for evasive / reactive driving techniques. The human simply has more variables available for the feed forward algorithms.

 

 

That said, I have no doubt that an autonomous vehicle would beat more than half the drivers on the road in a race.....but do you want that same system increasing the risk of those drivers that actually take the time to learn how to drive better? Take a look at ABS systems.....they've been around for years and they still net a 10 to 20% increase in stopping distance! In fact, 10% is intentionally thrown away as a buffer against locking the tires. The best ABS systems (used on racecars) are ones that assist the human driver, but they don't do all the work.

 

I could go on, and to be fair I'm not citing any sources here, but I feel like I have some firsthand experience with these things. In college we published a paper on an automatic torque vectoring technique to improve the cornering speed of a race car. It's how I can relate to the friends working on automation because we were limited by the same interfaces to the analog world. And even in simulation world where you could theoretically have all the information at once, nobody has yet figured out how to optimize the solution. Vehicles dynamics are incredibly complicated, so engineers resort to simplified systems. Make it more complicated you say....sure, but then it directly reduces the observation and reaction rate of the system....and now you've got way more corner cases with complicated moral responsibility at play - and that code is being written by geeks that don't understand nor like driving in the first place....not the people I want making those decisions.

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Is nobody looking at the Volvo statement in 126?

 

Ever point I have made other than those I state as personal opinion come from readily available sources.  Did anyone else look at the post Autarchist put up of the guys in the Q50?  Does anybody, including you Mike, figure you can make decisions in nanoseconds?

 

The space shuttle was pretty much entirely operated by computer.  The only two failures were human.  The computers said "Do not fly."  Overridden. 

 

Dave

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Electric steering isn't necessarily the problem....

 

It absolutely is, there's no comparison to the hydraulic system. You won't find a car magazine editor that will tell you differently. This isn't to say the BRZ has no feeling, it's just a relative thing. If you're use to driving hydraulic or limited hydraulic assist systems, and then jump in an electro steering system, you'll know instantly. No matter what the car is, Ferrari, Porsche, BMW, etc., the new electro steering sucks relative to the old.

 

Currently, the people complaining the loudest are the ones who upgraded to new 991's. It's Porsche's latest Carrera, and returning customers are not happy at all.

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The space shuttle was pretty much entirely operated by computer.   

 

Dave

Except for the landings. EVERY Space Shuttle landing was made by a human, disengaged from computers, starting at least 25 miles out. There were too many variables for a computer to handle a dead stick landing of an aircraft having the glideslope of a brick (-20 degrees nose down attitude, begin pitching up at 2,500' AGL,roughly 6 times steeper than a commercial airliner).

It would have been too costly and taken too long to develop.

How much will the Volvo be? What level of automation are they striving for by 2017?

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"Volvo's system is what's considered Level 3 autonomous driving. That is, able to navigate along a given road safely all by itself. Level 4 is the sort of system Google is working on, where you can punch in an address and then curl up in the back seat for a bit of a nap if you like. Volvo pledges to lease 100 of these Level 3 cars to the citizens of Gothenberg in 2017. (Other cities should come soon after, with LA and Shanghai mentioned as high-value targets.) Google, too, hopes to have its system on the roads by the end of the same year, but with no automotive partners announced it's not difficult to be skeptical."

Well if I had bothered to read down, I would have seen the above quote. They are leasing them? Why? Technology and cost reduction will make them obsolete is less than 3 years?

The guy from Delphi said it would be transitional, and he belives a majority of Level 4 cars on the road will be abiut 2050, I can easily see that, assuming they can get price down to what an average consumer can afford and is willing to pay.

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disengaged from computers, starting at least 25 miles out.

 

Living in an astronaut neighborhood I have been told reliably the shuttle, like the FB117, and B2 are not flyable without computers.  The computers provide a pilot with an illusion of stability that is entirely produced by the machine to allow them to steer it as they normally do. 

 

RB-72 may be normally entirely unmanned, as well as the B3.  I will certainly agree this is a whole other ball game than a ground vehicle. 

Perfect example.

 

As for take off and orbit...never have seen a hand on the controls.

 

Dave

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