seti Posted January 27, 2008 Share Posted January 27, 2008 If you'd like a fictional account from the golden age of what might go wrong right at the cusp of the curve (this is not a new concept), rent or buy a copy of "Forbidden Planet." I first saw it in the early 60's and it made a tremendous impact on me. The Krell had reached the last stage before singularity and built a machine that would take them to the next level. However, they made a fatal error in not realizing they'd failed to take the remaining animal in them to account (monsters of the id). The result was catastrophic. It is a cautionary tail which I suspect we will not repeat. Nanorobots run amuck are a bit more of a concern. BTW, it's the one the famous "Robbie the Robot" made his debut in. Dave Forbidden Planet is in my 10 ten movies. I'm not sure if you are aware but the 50th anniversary DVD edition was released last year. It cleaned up very well. I will buy it soon. This movie and it's ground breaking soundtrack which didn't win an award because "electronic" instruments weren't allowed are amazing. I love sci-fi but it is a genre with very few masterpieces but those that are are worth it. I have a friend named Krell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boom3 Posted January 28, 2008 Share Posted January 28, 2008 We are here already, just awaiting the moment to reveal ourselves. Believers in horns will be the first to know.[] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pauln Posted January 28, 2008 Share Posted January 28, 2008 Dyson wrote about this question in his book, "Disturbing the Universe". As a civilization advances, and if they are fortunate enough not to destroy themselves, ultimately there are some predictible stages of development which he called Type I, II, and III. Type I controls the resources of a planet, we will be there in a few hundred years. Type II controls the resources of a solar system. We might get there in a thousand years (this includes building structures around the Sun to capture it's energy) Type III controls a galaxy. Even with slow space travel this only takes a few million years. He asks what measurable signs would these levels of civilization show. Type I and II are basically undetectable, but Type III will show as a galaxy that has a very strong infra-red emmission - no way to hide this. His recommendation is to search for high infra-red emmission galaxies; by the way - there are a lot of them and a natural explanation for their emmission is not yet known... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mark1101 Posted January 28, 2008 Share Posted January 28, 2008 It's funny that unless I missed it......no one has discussed how WE GOT HERE in the first place. That might be half a hint to answering the question of: Are we alone? No one has mentioned a "creator" (GOD), someone responsible for the whole picture. All technological propositions and theories, all mathematics. Frankly, I'm a little surprised. Now.....I'm not meaning to be going all "Catholic" on everyone here whose posted so far....in fact I'll play devil's advocate.....but do any of you believe there's a single supreme "Boss" responsible for all of this? That all of the learning we could possibly do is just exercise and entertainment put in place meant to keep us busy while our lives expired? That we are someone's toys in effect....placed here with a purpose? So how do you think we got here in the first place? Does someone have the math for that one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted January 28, 2008 Share Posted January 28, 2008 >Type I controls the resources of a planet, we will be there in a few hundred years. Having met you personally and followed your posts, I happen to be of the opinion that you are a rather formidable intellect. Please explain why you believe (apparently, unless you are just quoting Dyson) that progress is linear rather than exponential. Not having been around prior to 1949 nor later than the present, I cannot speak for that. However, I have personally observed during my lifetime that progess, at least in this time, is definitely exponential. IMOH Dyson is correct with 1 and 3, but off by a few million years. Granted, even that is not significant time on a geologic scale, but it is significant in terms of human lifespan. We'll blow by 2 altogeter. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deang Posted January 28, 2008 Share Posted January 28, 2008 I think we'll blow #1. At the rate we're going -- in 300 years there won't be any resources. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted January 28, 2008 Share Posted January 28, 2008 In 300 years, we won't need any resources. We'll have been gone for at least 200 and the place will look a lot better by then. It will be a nice place to visit. Terran Homeworld Galactic Park Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted January 28, 2008 Share Posted January 28, 2008 Pessimists all! Meaning mallette and deang. According to malthusian mathematics we would already be destroyed, yet somehow we feed way more people than his predictions. Not to mention there are some resources that are for our purposes inexhaustable, such as sun and wind which have only begun to be exploited and understood. Water you say? Global warming (manbearpig) will add more water to the system than exists now, more rain, more ocean to desalinate. All of these things are actively being worked on now, and technology can only get better for them. In the meantime we already know how to power all our needs with existing nuclear technology, which can and should and will be improved on. Only pollution of our resources detrimental to human life will kill us all, and that is also already a field of study and concern. Pity the pessimist, they are always wrong in the long run (unless the very long run when the sun dies). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Islander Posted January 28, 2008 Share Posted January 28, 2008 "The future is already here, it's just not widely distributed yet." William Gibson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted January 28, 2008 Share Posted January 28, 2008 Read the rest of the thread, oldtimer. My optimism for our future is unbounded, and scientifically based (granted mostly theoretical...but it's really GREAT theories). Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted January 28, 2008 Share Posted January 28, 2008 In 300 years, we won't need any resources. We'll have been gone for at least 200 and the place will look a lot better by then. It will be a nice place to visit. Terran Homeworld Galactic Park Dave Well this was the thread i was responding to. Just what about the rest of this do you refer. I realize that all of your other posts do not reflect this sentiment, which is why it surprised me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted January 28, 2008 Share Posted January 28, 2008 Of course maybe the park to visit you mention is for us to visit. Maybe that's optimistic maybe not. We have to abandon our homeland to enjoy and appreciate it? Or is it a park for "them" to visit. Optimism to me is to stay right here where we evolved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted January 28, 2008 Share Posted January 28, 2008 Oldtimer: We will be non-corporeal entities by then. Functionaly immortal but still with the ability to assume a physical presence if we desrie. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted January 28, 2008 Share Posted January 28, 2008 Loving the flesh as I do, that sucks.[6] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted January 28, 2008 Share Posted January 28, 2008 Because you know that when we assume, we make an blank out of you and me.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldenough Posted January 28, 2008 Author Share Posted January 28, 2008 Oldtimer: We will be non-corporeal entities by then. Functionaly immortal but still with the ability to assume a physical presence if we desrie. Dave Keep on daydreaming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted January 28, 2008 Share Posted January 28, 2008 Well, I don't expect to make it, but my kids will. This scenario is not just likely but invitable unless something stops us. Highly respected scientists started predicting singularity in the 40's (other references go back MUCH farther) and sci fi writers have covered it from a number of angles. Of course, if you think scifi is trash you'll discount them...but bear in mind they predicted most of our current technology before there was any scientific basis for it. In fact, in most instances, they were way too conservative (the little communicator Lt. Uhuru wore is a dead ringer for a bluetooth earpiece...and they had it 400 years in the future). "Daydreaming?" I suppose...over 40 years. The funny thing is that I don't see this as awesome, fantastic, or whatever. It just is. It's not something I long for, as I am unlikely to live long enough to make it. Unless Moore's Law fails (and we have no reason to believe it will) computers equal to human intelligence will come on line before the end of the next decade. Once that happens, the technological ramp will be nearly straight up. Let's see...Eniac (not remotely as powerful as a 3.00 calculator) to Blue Gene (1/10 human intelligence) in 50 years and you are not seeing this pattern? I am not going to bang this drum anymore, as to those who've not studied the exponential curves of technology it's simply insane, and for those who have it's sorta "duh." Frankly, I don't blame you. When I was 14 I first read that the galaxy itself was evolving toward intelligence. It was so incomprehensible it stuck in my mind. Now I know what he meant. Dave (lucid dream back on)[|-)] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Islander Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 Unless Moore's Law fails (and we have no reason to believe it will) computers equal to human intelligence will come on line before the end of the next decade. Once that happens, the technological ramp will be nearly straight up. We'd better have the Turing cops set up before then, before Wintermute can consolidate its power. Or it really could be the rise of the machines... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldenough Posted January 29, 2008 Author Share Posted January 29, 2008 Unless Moore's Law fails (and we have no reason to believe it will) Who is the "we" you are talking of ? Now i'm not going to pretend i understand half of what you think you understand. but just a little research into Moores Law showed that not everyone "in the know" is in complete agreement with it. Yet you throw it around with such authority that lesser mortals would feel they were doing themselves an injustice by not believing. I for one would also be willing to wager that computers will not be equal to human intelligence by the end of the next decade (2020), if ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Islander Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 Moore's Law is just a trend in the pace of development that has been consistent so far. However, quantum tunnelling and other effects will limit the possible miniaturization of processors fairly soon, unless some quite different technology comes into use. And I wasn't kidding about Turing cops. If an AI network develops self-awareness without any human noticing, it could be too late for all of us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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