Hurricane Season - 2008

[dtel's wife]

Besides......I need some info on "Fay".

http://www.noaawatch.gov/2008/fay.php

Now you know I am fully aware how to look up hurricane information. [] I just wanted to hear from Groomy. I have been worried about him! [*-)] It sure is good to "hear his voice" again![]

[dtel's wife]

Glad to see y'all are OK, and you are back, I am jealous, most people are not allowed to ride around during a storm, the police will run them off, or give them a nice steel cage room for the night.

Send it this way, Florida has it worn down enough where there will be nothing left when it gets here ! Although this storm was a little different, it was " reported " to have intensified after going on land which is not normal.

Now you can rest,.......... with one eye open to the south east, for a couple more months.

Be careful what you wish for. I would think with a mother in law named "Fay" you would know better than to invite this storm our way??????[8o|]

[Dflip]

Here is the next one. I've been watching the Olympics for the past two weeks, so I didn't pay much attention to Fay. It seemed like a smaller storm from a wind perspective. Unfortunately, it brought a lot of rain with it.

A little to early to tell where it is going to end up, but it will hit warmer waters. It will be late in the week before we really know where this one is headed.

[CECAA850]

I saw TD7 just a little while ago but you beat me to the post. Looks like Marshall will be looking over his shoulder again.

[CECAA850]

It now has a name, "Gustav".

[iwillwalk]

we put a trash can out in the yard & measured 21 inches on saturday

just got comcast back

[Dflip]

It appears to have taken a turn westward and is now a hurricane hitting Haiti as a category 1 and being upscaled later today to a category 2. Of course it is also now entering the Gulf of Mexico. I'm guessing Wednesday of next week, just after Labour Day that it will make landfall somewhere in the gulf. This is the peak time of the year for hurricanes, so we are likely to see a few. According to NOAA data, the gulf doesn't have that trough of hot water it had two years ago that automatically turned category 2's into 5's. It is a bit cooler as it approaches the coast. It still has hot water which hurricanes like, it's just not laid out like a runway. http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/?product=sst&region=gulfmexico&nothumbs=0

[Dflip]

More comming. [8-)]

Or at the least potential for more. It's that time of year and they appear to be lining up, coming off the coast of Africa. Some of you might want to keep an eye on, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml Satellite images of the basins which show hurricanes and storms

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/g8hu.html Infra red image of hurricanes and storms are the easiest to see

I hope some of this information is useful.

Don

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the latest tracking information from the Navy:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the visual image as of early this morning:

[Groomlakearea51]

And the Infrared photo:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the Navy's track estimate (and they are usually pretty accurate)

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the National Hurricane Center's discussion:

WTNT42 KNHC 260849
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION HAS FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 90 KT...PEAK SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 76 KT... AND A RECENT ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 984 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY RAISED TO 75 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ORGANIZING PATTERN WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BECOMING MORE PROMINENT AND GUSTAV IS LIKELY NOT DONE INTENSIFYING BEFORE IT PASSES OVER SOUTHWESTERN HAITI LATER TODAY. SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN 24 HR DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION WITH HAITI. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER EXTREMELY WARM WATERS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED AND NOW CALLS FOR GUSTAV TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE GFDL/HWRF FORECAST SHOW AN EVEN STRONGER HURRICANE. MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTAV WILL BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/8...THOUGH GUSTAV MAY RECENTLY BE MOVING A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO NOTE THIS MORNING IS A DRAMATIC SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT WITH ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM GUSTAV... LEAVING RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE HURRICANE WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST IN A DAY OR SO DUE TO THIS BUILDING RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND 24 HR BUT IS STILL ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT BUT WE'D PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL THE GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0900Z 17.2N 71.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 18.0N 72.9W 85 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 18.8N 74.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 19.2N 75.6W 80 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 19.4N 76.9W 85 KT
72HR VT 29/0600Z 20.0N 79.3W 90 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 21.0N 82.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 31/0600Z 23.0N 85.5W 100 KT

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the NHC model plots; NOTE they do not include all of the supercomputer plots that are shown on the Navy's graphic.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here are the estimated tracks on the one that's out in the Atlantic:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the summary for "what's happening out there":

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

2. A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

3. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF BERMUDA ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's an edited description of the "models" that generate all of those tracks (courtesy Mr. Jaime Rhome, 2007). This is a very brief technical description, but if you own Klipsch speakers, you are smart enough to follow this. To read the paper in it's entirety, go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml .

“Forecast model” is a generic term that refers to any objective tool used to generate a prediction of a future event, such as the state of the atmosphere. Generation of such forecasts is usually created through mathematical computations. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) utilizes many models in their preparation of the official track and intensity forecasts.

Forecast models range from fairly simple methods, which can be run in a few seconds on an ordinary computer, to those that require a number of hours on a supercomputer.

Dynamical models, also known as “numerical models” use high speed computers to solve the physical equations of motion governing the atmosphere.

Statistical models, in contrast, do not explicitly consider the physics of the atmosphere but instead are based on historical relationships between storm behavior and storm-specific details such as location and date.

Statistical-dynamical models use both dynamical and statistical techniques by making a forecast based on establishing historical relationships between storm behavior and atmospheric variables provided by dynamical models.

Trajectory models move a tropical cyclone (TC) along based on the prevailing flow derived from a separate dynamical model.

Ensemble or consensus techniques are not true forecast models per se, but rather involve combinations of forecasts from multiple models.

Forecast models are characterized as either early or late, depending on whether they are available to the forecaster during the contemporary forecast cycle.

Due to their complexity, dynamical models are generally, if not always, late models. Fortunately, a technique exists to take the latest available run of a late model and adjust its forecast to apply to the current synoptic time and initial conditions.

It is important to note that forecast models are complex, each with their own sets of strengths and weaknesses. Interpretation of forecast model output is often aided by professional training and years of experience. On average, NHC official forecasts usually have smaller errors than any of the individual models. A given NHC forecast never relies solely on any one individual model (i.e. “model of the day” or “best model”), but rather reflects consideration of all available guidance as well as forecaster experience. Statistical models

Climatology and Persistence Model (CLIPER5): CLIPER5 is a statistical track model originally developed in 1972 and in 1998 was extended to provide forecasts out to 120 h. As the name implies, the CLIPER5 model is based on climatology and persistence.

Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast (SHIFOR5): SHIFOR5 is a simple statistical intensity model that uses climatology and persistence as predictors.

Decay-SHIFOR5: Decay-SHIFOR5 is the SHIFOR5 with an inland decay component included to account for the effects of land in the rate of intensity decay when TCs encounter land.

Statistical-Dynamical ModelsThe NHC98 (Atlantic) and NHC91 (east Pacific) models are referred to as statistical-dynamical models because they reflect statistical relationships between storm behavior and predictors obtained from dynamical model forecasts, such as the deep-layer-mean GFS geopotential heights fields (averaged from 1000 to 100 mb). Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS): The SHIPS model is a statistical-dynamical intensity model that bases its forecasts on statistical relationships between storm behavior and predictors obtained from dynamical model forecasts.

Decay-SHIPS: Decay-SHIPS is the SHIPS with an inland decay component included. Since land interactions result in weakening, the Decay-SHIPS will typically provide more accurate TC intensity forecasts when TCs encounter or interact with land.

Logistic Growth Equation Model Summary (LGEM): LGEM is a statistical intensity forecast model that utilizes the same input as SHIPS but in the framework of a simplified dynamical prediction system, instead of a multiple regression. Dynamical Models

U.S. National Weather Service Global Forecast System (GFS): The term “GFS” technically refers to all code that supports the production of the National Weather Service (NWS) global model suite of products, including the global data assimilation system (GDAS).

Limited Area Sine Transform Barotropic (LBAR) Model: Compared to the GFS, LBAR is a simple two-dimensional dynamical track prediction model. Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM): The CMC’s GEM is a hydrostatic global grid point model laid on a latitude/longitude coordinate system with 0.3 latitude-0.45 longitude (approximately 33 km at 49 degrees latitude) horizontal grid spacing and 58 vertical eta levels.

European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Model: Developed and maintained by an international organization supported by 28 European member states, the ECMWF model is the most sophisticated and computationally expensive of all the global models currently used by NHC.

Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS): The NOGAPS model is a global spectral model with triangular truncation at 239 waves (approximately 55 km horizontal grid spacing) with 30 vertical levels (T239L30).

NWS Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Model (GFDL) Hurricane Model: The GFDL Hurricane model is a limited-area, grid-point model that was designed specifically for TC prediction.

Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF): The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model was developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Environmental Modeling Center and implemented operationally in 2007. While the HWRF model will eventually replace the GFDL model, they are currently both being run and evaluated in parallel during the 2007 season.

United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMET) Model: The UKMET model is a non-hydrostatic global model that utilizes an Arakawa C-grid resulting in an east-west horizontal grid spacing of 0.5° longitude and a north-south grid spacing of 0.4° latitude. The UKMET typically provides useful tropical cyclone track forecasts but has limited ability to produce valuable intensity forecasts.

Ensemble ModelsGUNS is a simple track consensus calculated by averaging the track guidance provided by the GFDI (interpolated GFDL), UKMI (interpolated UKMET) and NGPI (interpolated NOGAPS) models. All three member models must be available to compute the GUNS consensus. GUNA is a simple track consensus calculated by averaging the track guidance provided by the GFDI (interpolated GFDL), UKMI (interpolated UKMET), NGPI (interpolated NOGAPS), and GFSI (interpolated GFS) models. All four member models must be available to compute GUNA.CGUN is a version of GUNA that is corrected for model biases. The biases are derived statistically, based on parameters known at the start of the forecast, such as model spread, initial intensity, location, etc. CONU is a simple track consensus calculated by averaging the track guidance provided by the GFDI (interpolated GFDL), UKMI (interpolated UKMET), NGPI (interpolated NOGAPS), GFNI (interpolated GFDN model) and GFSI (interpolated GFS) models. CONU requires at least two of the five member models be present. CCON is a version of CONU that is corrected for model biases. The biases are derived statistically, based on parameters known at the start of the forecast, such as model spread, initial intensity, location, etc. ICON is a simple intensity model consensus computed as the average of the Decay-SHIPS and GHMI (adjusted GFDI forecast) intensity output. Florida State University Super Ensemble (FSSE): The Florida State University Superensemble (FSSE) is a weighted multi-model consensus that uses both dynamical models and the previous official NHC forecast as the basis of its prediction. National Weather Service Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): The GEFS is an ensemble prediction system based on the GFS model. Trajectory Models

The Beta and Advection Model (BAM) refers to a class of simple trajectory models that utilize vertically-averaged horizontal winds from the GFS to compute the trajectories. These trajectories include a correction term to account for the drift of the storm due to the “beta-effect” caused by the earth’s rotation.

[Groomlakearea51]

There are two scary ways to look at the hurricane season: When and Where.... Here's when:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's "where" for August....

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's September (AND I DON'T LIKE THIS ONE AT ALL!!!!)