Hurricane Season - 2008

[Groomlakearea51]

Atlantic is very busy..... Here's the NHC overview for this morning.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 245 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE... AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

2. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[Groomlakearea51]

Meanwhile, here's Gustav's latest NHC discussion:

WTNT42 KNHC 290853
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS AN EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD AND IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE STORM'S CIRCULATION FOUND THAT THE SIZE OF GUSTAV HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED. ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO SAMPLE THE CENTER...PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KT WERE OBSERVED...ALONG WITH SIMILAR VALUES FOR THE SFMR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7. THERE IS A COMPLICATED EVOLUTION TO THE STEERING CURRENTS AROUND GUSTAV DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA THAT HAS BEEN STEERING THE STORM WESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CAUSE GUSTAV TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. ONE BIG QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF A MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF...ARE SHOWING THIS LOW CREATING ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE BERMUDA HIGH TO ALLOW A MOTION MORE
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES CUBA. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THAT TRACK BRIEFLY OCCURRED...BUT IN THE LONGER-TERM...A HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY BEND TO THE LEFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE BEND. THE UKMET AND GFS HAVE HAD LARGE CHANGES TO THEIR FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS...AND GIVEN THE INCREASING MODEL SPREAD...WE'VE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOPEFULLY A G-IV MISSION LATER TODAY WILL HELP RESOLVE SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES.

AFTER THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM JAMAICA...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COMBINED WITH THE
DEEP WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS...COULD PRODUCE A STRONG HURRICANE VERY QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN CUBA AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AS SOME MODELS SHOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AT THAT TIME. A LARGE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS TROUGH MAY IMPART SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON GUSTAV AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 18.1N 78.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 18.6N 79.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 19.6N 81.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 21.0N 82.8W 90 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 22.7N 84.6W 100 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 26.4N 88.1W 110 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 29.0N 91.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 30.0N 93.0W 85 KT...INLAND

[Groomlakearea51]

Gustav's NHC prime track

[Groomlakearea51]

Gustav Model Tracks from which the prime estimate track is derived.

[Groomlakearea51]

Gustav's MIL track estimate. Note the diameter of the wind fields estimated in this graphic.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the MILSAT visible image as of this morning:

[Groomlakearea51]

Meanwhile, and VERY FORTUNATELY for South Florida, Hanna is predicted to turn sothwest instead of heading straight at the east coast of Florida. Here's the NHC estimate of the situation with Hanna:

WTNT43 KNHC 290853
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF HANNA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE AWAY...IT IS STILL PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONCE AGAIN THE CENTER HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS NOW CONFINED TO A CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...BUT WITH THE CURRENT SHEARED PATTERN...THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS. THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE THE KEY PLAYER FOR BOTH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF HANNA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. IF THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS...THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES A GOOD SOLUTION FROM GLOBAL MODELS AND CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION FROM 24 TO 72 HOURS. THE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL BUT DOES NOT SHOWS AS MUCH STRENGTHENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL AND HWRF.

HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND 3 DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CARVING A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND DEVELOPING A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE HANNA ON A SLOW SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK BEYOND THREE DAYS...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION BUT DOES NOT GO AS
FAR SOUTH AS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE MODELS. IN FACT...THE GFS HAS JOINED THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN BRINGING THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 21.7N 62.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 22.6N 64.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 66.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 25.3N 68.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 26.0N 70.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 71.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 25.5N 72.2W 80 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 25.0N 73.0W 75 KT

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's Hanna's NHC prime track path.

[Groomlakearea51]

Hanna's NHC model tracks.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the MIL track estimate with windfield diameters

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the visble MILSAT image from this morning.

[Groomlakearea51]

The disturbance in the Bay of Campeche may turn north over land. Not expected to be an event, but could bring rain to Texas. Here's the tracks.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the general visible MILSAT view of the Atlantic as of this morning.

[Groomlakearea51]

This weekend will be interesting as the storms progress on their paths. Hopefully, Gustav will weaken because of the lower sea surface temps and gets further torn up by the mountains in Cuba.

For everyone in the Gulf, get your batteries, water, etc and bolt evrything down. Keep your fingers crossed, your powder dry, and cover up your audio equipment with 55 gallon drum liners.....

Back to work!!

[Dflip]

The track as it hits Louisiana is interesting. I'm not sure that I remember a hurricane hugging the coastline like this one. It won't directly hit a major populated area, but it is going to lay down a lot of rain on the coastal area. I guess it depends on how much of that ends up in the Mississippi and whether those levees were properly repaired.

The current target, near Marsh Island, south of Lafayette is populated by some small villages along what looks like a drainage ditch on Google Earth. Since this area is very low with higher water levels at any time, they will need to move inland. Of course, if the other air masses shift a bit, and it tracks more easterly? Hopefully, Gustov burns itself out in the marsh areas.

Hanna is getting a lot more interesting. On the fourth and fifth day from now it is going to track southerly one degree of latitude, basically from Fort Pierce to the Keys. It raises the possibility that it too might hit the Gulf of Mexico and only a bit of the east coast of Florida. The other US air masses are playing a large role in where both of these hurricanes are headed.

I find Google Earth to be really interesting in allowing me to see what is in the area. Only the cities give you all of the detail, but it does show where development is a better sense of where some of the problems can be.

We had a propane explosion up here two weeks ago and the yard went up in a giant fireball. The people living across the street luckilly got out, but their homes have shifted off their foundations, full brick bungalows with basements. The talking heads on tv kept referring to damage at other sites and giving distances which were wrong. A quick look on Google Earth and the reason why headstones were damaged in the adjacent cemetery, as well as the homes would have made perfect sense to the viewers.

[Dflip]

Another interesting site: http://www.stormpulse.com/tropical-storm-gustav-2008

It gives you a colour image and shows where the hurricane is and where it is going. They also have an archives section where you can see the path of any hurricane, which is an interesting option. Sometimes I do forget where a certain hurricane went through.

[CECAA850]

I like this one:

http://web.tampabay.rr.com/wolfy/

[CECAA850]

It's starting to get a little antsy around southeast TX.

[jcmusic]

It looks like we are going to need alot of luck to get through this one!!!!!!!!!!!! I hope I still have a system and a home after it's all over!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jay

[dtel's wife]

Jay,

We totally understand how you are feeling. As I post dtel and dtel's daughter are securing the Klipsch speakers with contractor bags, instructions courtesy of Groomlake. Most of today has been spent packing our clothing, pictures, important papers and assuring our other two daughters that we are getting out of harm's way.

Dtel, mother-in-law, sister-in-law, dtel's daughter, dtel's niece, dtel's nephew, Buddy and me will be evacuating to Gatlinburg, TN. We have left dtel's son in law in charge of "the homestead". Son in law can not leave town as he is employed by one of the public utilities.

Updates on Gustav from the NHC show we are making the right decision. NHC is forecasting a CAT 4 as it makes landfall. Wind is a major concern, together with tornadoes and we can not take any chances with mother-in-law as she was just released from the hospital a week ago. Needless to say, we are not willing to take any chances with Buddy either.

Youngest daughter is in Ruston, LA, which will be in the northeast quadrant of Gustav as it crosses the LA/TX border as a CAT 1. Daughter and son-in-law have a five year old and an eight month old. Very stressful to think about any possible effects Gustav may have on their lives. I guess I was only fooling myself to think Ruston, LA was safe from the impact of a hurricane.

It's very difficult express how I feel at this moment. Even though we are considerably removed from the projected landfall of Gustav the effects will surely impact our small "neck of the woods."

I hate leaving my home and not knowing if it will be here or not when I return....I am grateful that we are in a position to leave town, insuring our personal safety.

Once we get into Gatlinburg we will try to post and let you all know how things made out down here as son in law is supposed to "keep in touch".

For those of you who may be in harm's way we will prayer for you and yours.