Groomlakearea51 Posted August 26, 2008 Author Share Posted August 26, 2008 October's no fun either....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 26, 2008 Author Share Posted August 26, 2008 The only thing that looks better than previous year is the sea surface temperatures. The graphic is expressed as an anomaly or the difference between what it is and what it ought to be. It's not as bad as it was last year or in 2004, 2005 and 2006. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 26, 2008 Author Share Posted August 26, 2008 Well, done kilt the mosquitos (about 10 billion....) so here's the latest on Gustav. All kidding aside this is a very dangerous storm. It will be well over 120 MPH when it gets into the Gulf. WTNT42 KNHC 262040 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008 AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...ON WHICH THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE BECAME EVIDENT...INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1730 UTC. A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 992 MB WAS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT JUST AS THE CENTER MOVED INLAND...HOWEVER A DROPSONDE RELEASED JUST EAST OF THE EYE HAD A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 997 MB WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 64 KT. SO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE MAY HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN 992 MB. IN ANY EVENT...NOW THAT THE CENTER IS MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI...GUSTAV IS LIKELY LOSING STRENGTH. THE EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH ONLY A LITTLE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND THEREFORE GUSTAV IS LIKELY TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...HWRF...AND GFDL GUIDANCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND MODEL FORECASTS OF INTENSITY HAVE LITTLE SKILL IN THE 3- TO 5-DAY RANGE. INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 305/9. THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE STEERING PATTERN FOR GUSTAV CONTINUES TO BE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE/HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S HEADING SHOULD GRADUALLY BEND TOWARD THE LEFT AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND OVERALL THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS ESSENTIALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 26, 2008 Author Share Posted August 26, 2008 Military Track Data Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 26, 2008 Author Share Posted August 26, 2008 Visual Satellite Image Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybob Posted August 26, 2008 Share Posted August 26, 2008 Really starting to fire-up! Well now, came home Friday after a blustery,squally ride to Perry, Florida. Several trees down of all sizes. Got home just at dark to a tree down blocking my street entrance and no power. To bed and wakeup to more weather. got in car and left Gadsden County for Wakulla County to p/u GF, and then on to Mexico Beach to nurse my GF's arm, broken from a car accident a little over 1 month ago. On to Mexico Beach where the waves were surfer-like and checked into our favorite on the gulf motel. Place was deserted, somewhat. Sun came out briefly and Sunday waves had calmed. Neighbor said power back on after 24 hours plus. Last two days local rivers, streams swelling over bridges, roadways with trees continuing to fall. Did hear that worker had lost life from a falling tree. Enter Gustav! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 27, 2008 Share Posted August 27, 2008 GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FORECAST TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GUSTAV SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS MOVING BACK OVER WATER AND IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY ONCE IT CLEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA. Monday could be an interesting day. The 5 day forecast is a bit aways, but Monday, Labour Day, could be interesting. It depends on where Gustov bends or breaks, New Orleans, either 50 miles east or west looks good right now. Mind you this is six days away with a margin for error. Hopefully it stays as a catergory 2, which is the current projection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybob Posted August 27, 2008 Share Posted August 27, 2008 Difficult, to be in an overdue area. A Cat 2 could raise havoc with just water. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 27, 2008 Author Share Posted August 27, 2008 Yes..... Monday could be an "interesting day"... In any event, the mountains tore Gustav up a little, but only temporarily. Here's the NHC outlook for this morning. WTNT42 KNHC 270843 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008 GUSTAV HAS BEEN HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI THIS MORNING WITH STRONG BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND RELIABLE SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 50 KT. LITTLE INTENSIFICATION IS FORESEEN UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI. THEREAFTER...A STEADY INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY... ESPECIALLY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INTO THE MORE OPEN WATERS NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM WATERS...RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CENTER IS NEAR OR SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM EARLIER DUE TO THE INITIAL WEAKENING BUT STILL SHOWS THE STORM BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE LONGER-TERM... THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF UPPER-WIND PATTERNS...BUT IN GENERAL THE UPPER WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE STORM HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH RECENTLY BUT AN AVERAGED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS YIELDS AN ESTIMATE OF 300/4. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS LIKELY TODAY AS THE STORM BUMPS INTO A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. GUSTAV SHOULD THEN BE STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFS IS AN EXTREME OUTLIER EARLY ON...TAKING THE STORM NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...WHICH IS CONSIDERED VERY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 18.6N 73.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 19.0N 74.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 19.1N 75.6W 60 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 19.2N 77.2W 70 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 19.6N 78.8W 80 KT 72HR VT 30/0600Z 21.0N 82.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 31/0600Z 23.5N 86.0W 105 KT 120HR VT 01/0600Z 27.0N 89.5W 105 KT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 27, 2008 Author Share Posted August 27, 2008 Here's the NHC track. While it's difficult to say where Gustav is going, folks in Louisiana should pay close attention to this storm and prepare accordingly. Hopefully, it will land somewhere that will affect as few folks as possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 27, 2008 Author Share Posted August 27, 2008 Here's the track plots. Note that the NHC track is a consensus derived from all of the track models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted August 27, 2008 Share Posted August 27, 2008 Looks the gas pumps are going to take a direct hit no matter where Gustav goes. There's a bunch of oil rigs throughout that area of the Gulf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 27, 2008 Author Share Posted August 27, 2008 Here's the military track path. The Navy is saying that it will be a CAT-3 by the time it is in the Gulf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 27, 2008 Author Share Posted August 27, 2008 MILSAT image from this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 27, 2008 Author Share Posted August 27, 2008 Meanwhile..... back in the Atlantic.... There are two more areas of "interest" that bear some watching. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.2. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 27, 2008 Author Share Posted August 27, 2008 The NHC image does not really tell us much, so.... Look at this graphic that shows the wind directions. You can see the circulation and flow patterns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 27, 2008 Author Share Posted August 27, 2008 Which is why Area 1 that the NHC is interested in makes more sense as it moves north west. Hopefully, Area-1 will follow the predicted paths. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 27, 2008 Author Share Posted August 27, 2008 Here's a better view of the two systems that have left Africa and headed this way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 27, 2008 Author Share Posted August 27, 2008 And an infrared view. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel's wife Posted August 27, 2008 Moderators Share Posted August 27, 2008 I'm glad you're back Groomy. We've really missed you. I hope everything is going well your way! Guess we better keep an eye on this one! I check for your updates here before I check NOAA.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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