Hurricane Season - 2008

[boom3]

I'm glad to see that Klipsch folks go the source, NOAA. Wunderground has some further info, and seems to be the best of all the commercial sites. The last thing you want to do is watch or listen to weather people on TV or radio, unless the storm is at your doorstep and they have germane information about your area. Between the har-de-har har happy news BS, the commercials, and the competing for dire predictions, those folks are useless. How many times do we need to see a Weather Channel guy standing on the beach while the wind ruffles his Gore-Tex?

My fellow Gulf Coasters may remember Nash Roberts, WDSU Channel 6 meteroligist (sp) in New Orleans. He was the last of the old-time weather men and people trusted him above all other authority figures. After he left, and stopped doing special visits for hurricanes, the clowns were sent in. In 1985 Elena did a crazy dance up and down the Gulf Coast. The weather people in New Orleans tried to out-hysteria each other, telling various parishes to "get out now"-without the authority of being parish civil defense directors, of course. Then a few hours later they'd reverse themselves. I got so torqued I called the station (Channel 4, I think) and complained to the program director. "We just want people to be safe" he whined.

I lived in Quarter then and nobody evac'd. I was the second floor. We put Visqueen over the windows, nailed down our shutters, added to stocks of food, water and liquor, and carried on. I know several people who rode out Katrina in the Quarter and did just fine, thank you. They did their best to avoid not only looters, but the National Guard. The Guard was grabbing people at gunpoint off the streets and taking them, against their will, seperating them from their families and pets, to the Superdome or the convention center, which had become the pits of Hades.

[dtel]

Your right Boom3, we check with NOAA, the local news is already telling people to get batteries for their flashlights and extra food, they should tell them to be prepared to get out. It was weeks here before their was electricity if your house was still there, it's kind of hard to stock up for weeks of no food or water. After the last storm the people working on putting up power poles said it may be months before they were finished, they were having poles sent from all over the country because their were not enough to replace all the ones that were down. We live 10 miles From Picayune and there were maby one or two poles still up in that ten miles and that was about average. The substations where the power is re routed from the high lines were being savaged from to fix one station at a time until parts came in. These people did an unbelievable job in only a few weeks, the people in our area were from Tennessee and North Carolina, they were working probably 18 hours a day !

One thing I can say is you don't realize how quiet and dark it is at night when there is no power on anywhere for 100 miles around, at night we would sit outside and look at the stars, you could hear someone walking down the street 100' feet away, the only light we could see were helicopters and planes flying back and forth around New Orleans looking for people. It all makes you realize how good you have it and how lucky you are.

I did like Nash Roberts and his chalk board, no [bs] just the truth about what to expect and how to prepare.

[CECAA850]

One thing I can say is you don't realize how quiet and dark it is at night when there is no power on anywhere for 100 miles around, at night we would sit outside and look at the stars, you could hear someone walking down the street 100' feet away, the only light we could see were helicopters and planes flying back and forth around New Orleans looking for people. It all makes you realize how good you have it and how lucky you are.

I

So true. The night after Rita hit was pretty spooky. We sat at the end of our driveway in the pitch black listening to the absolute lack of any noise whatsoever. It was like being in the middle of the woods..........at your house. No cars, no ac units running, no anything. Besides the lack of noise, there was virtually no moon. The stars were incredible. We would turn the flashlights off and be amazed that we couldn't see your hand 2 feet from your face. It's something I'll not likely forget anytime soon.

[Groomlakearea51]

It's getting busy out there, and both New Orleans and South Florida are in a major panic.... For good reasons though. If you have been "run over in the intersection of the cones of death" several times, you tend to get all jittery when anything points it's ugly little storm head in your direction.

In any event. Here's the NHC overview of what's happening (excluding Gustav and soon to be Hanna...).

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES EAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA...AND
HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT...LOCATED
ABOUT 355 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SPARSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 775 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

2. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND IS ABOUT TO EMERGE OVER THE EXTREME TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

3. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's today's NHC text and NHC "cone of death" for Gustav. Not much change...

000
WTNT42 KNHC 281113
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
730 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 60 KT AT THE SURFACE.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE STRENGTHENING OF
GUSTAV HAS PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA TO ISSUE A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE ISSUANCE OF AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 800 AM EDT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1130Z 17.8N 75.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 17.5N 76.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 17.8N 78.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 18.5N 80.3W 70 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 19.5N 82.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 22.0N 85.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 89.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 28.5N 91.0W 100 KT

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the Model Track paths for Gustav.

[Groomlakearea51]

Gustav's visible image from the GOES Milsat

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the military track estimate for Gustav.

[Groomlakearea51]

TD8 or soon to be Hanna poses a significant threat to South Florida. Here's the NHC estimate on Hanna.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH SURFACE CIRCULATION AND DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A
SHIP VERY NEAR THE CENTER ALSO REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1005 MB NEAR THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 AND 2.0 RESPECTIVELY. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 30 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTION...THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY ABATING AND THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ALOFT...RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 3 DAYS. THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...PREDICTING AN INTENSE HURRICANE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. THE LARGE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TAKE A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IN A DAY OR SO. THE FLOW AROUND AN UPPER-LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO COULD ALSO INDUCE SOME WESTWARD COMPONENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE STEERING FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A WHILE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH INDEED SHOWS A WESTWARD TRACK BEYOND 4 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0900Z 19.8N 57.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 58.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 22.0N 60.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 23.5N 62.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 25.0N 64.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 26.0N 67.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 27.0N 69.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 27.0N 70.5W 75 KT

[CECAA850]

New Orleans should feel safe. Gustav was pointed in their direction on the very first set of tracking maps. I've yet to see a hurricane land where the early predictions point. It's not scientific, just an observation.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the NHC Track Models

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the MILSAT visible image. NOTE: It's very well defined at this early stage.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the MIL track path

[Groomlakearea51]

The MIL track differs slightly from the NHC primary estimate in that it shows a slight tendency to curve west-south-west. Slight left turning would bring it over south Florida. Staying on a true west track puts it on top of my house. Same scenario as Frances & jeanne.

[Groomlakearea51]

The last thing you want to do is watch or listen to weather people on TV or radio, unless the storm is at your doorstep and they have germane information about your area. Between the har-de-har har happy news BS, the commercials, and the competing for dire predictions, those folks are useless. How many times do we need to see a Weather Channel guy standing on the beach while the wind ruffles his Gore-Tex?

A very accurate "weather" observation. It would seem that some of the meteorologists on the Weather Channel are certainly more interested in their face appearing on the news rather than reporting information that has substance. The media "mets" are very deficient in explaining why a storm is doing what it's doing. The information is available from the NHC and a discussion of the conditions that cause the storms to move on the tracks would be of great value, at least from the viewpoint of some rational explanation, to the average person who is wondering whether or not their home will be the next victim of nature's wrath.... Just telling everyone to watch out, here it comes, but "we don't want to predict anything", (let alone explain their prediction), is useless.

[CECAA850]

Gustav keeps inching my way every time there's a new projection. [st]

[Dflip]

The one thing to remember with any prediction is that they change. The further it is in the future, the more likely it is to vary off it's supposed track. With Gustov, two days ago was aimed at New Orleans, yesterday towards Biloxi and today, west of New Orleans by 50 miles. They can also take a bit of a rightward kick when they hit shallower water, just like Katrina did.

Hanna's southwestern kick in four days is also interesting. It depends on whether that is a blip and it will head back up north, or it's heading for Florida.

The bad news, there is at least another one and maybe two one the way. The US got spared last year, it looks like they're getting it this year. The only good news is the gulf temperatures are lower this year, so maybe these will stay as category one and twos, instead of hitting the fives of the past couple of years. A slow moving catergory one can do a lot of damage because roofs and other objects aren't designed to take that level of wind for that amount of time. They also result in flooding, not the quick surge, but the constant downpour where the soil can no longer soak up any more of the rain.

We will know more in the next couple of days.

[CECAA850]

The one thing to remember with any prediction is that they change.

Agreed. Really the only accurate way you can tell where it will make landfall is 5 minutes after it's made landfall. Up till then it's an educated crapshoot.

[Dflip]

They just keep on coming.

[dtel]

Nothing like a little late summer excitement ! [:@]