Hurricane Season - 2008

[Audio Flynn]

You casually mention the possibility of tornadoes. A real nasty possibility. I have a buddie in Miami but his house is all steel reinforced concrete for the winds.

Teaching my sone about hurricanes as we surf.

We can take up a collection for new speakers. No one near the cost is a chicken $chit for heading west in this event. Consider leaving.

Be safe

Rick

[Mallette]

I rode out the Wichtal Falls, Texas "Terrible Tuesday" tornado in a cellar. It was the third largest ever recorded. Last time I looked at it before ducking it covered 2/3 of the sky. When I emerge 1/5 of a city of over 100,000 was totally flattened beginning about a 2 blocks from my house.

Scary does not really convey my feeling about tornados. However, I intend to have cover and even in that F5 storm the bathrooms in the very center of houses generally stood. The type of tornados associated with these hurricanes are much smaller. Total your house, yes, but reduce it to kindling, probably not.

Dave

[BLSamuel]

Dave,

I'm with LarryC ... pack up the Fraziers and whatever else you can't bear to lose and get out of there man. Ain't no possessions worse getting yourself killed over but you already know that. Now if you can't go or won't go, I'm thinking a river raft moored to your roof might be a nice thing to have should your house be swept away.Hmmm... maybe a sea kayak would be better?

I just hope and pray that Ike mellows out and hits where it'll do the least damage to people and property.

May the hands of God spare you and others in Ike's path.

Don't know why, but I'm seeing images of Lieutenant Dan in Forrest Gump up in the crows nest when they're riding out the storm raising his fists to the heavens and screaming something like "You call that a storm"... before he seemed to find his peace with God as Forrest put it.

Take care and let us know how things go.

Ben

[Dflip]

HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...IKE REMAINS A LARGE CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AND POSES A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE HAZARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT MANSFIELD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...BUT A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...
715 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 340 MILES
...545 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY
LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE
COASTLINE EARLY ON FRIDAY...LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
COAST.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT IKE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES...425 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS 956
MB...28.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...26.3 N...90.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BERG

[Dflip]

The projection is now at Galveston, hopefully it continues its northeastwardly path and puts you on the good side of Ike.

[Dflip]

If you wanted to make a run for it, San Antonio might be a good place to head since it's on the good side and will get some rain, but not 20 foot tidal surges they are predicting for Galveston Bay don't sound good. This is a risky proposition and if you are leaving, you probably need to get out now. The rain and winds from the outermost bands are already hitting Houston and as far over as Victoria. They will cut off escape routes rather quickly.

Good luck and post as often as you can and as soon as you are able to after Ike. Wishing you all of the best.

[Mallette]

Getting 500 lbs. of Frazier's in a Crown Vic is problematic...

I am going to stay up late tonight as I probably won't get a lot of sleep tomorrow. It is still very quiet and calm here. Good listening situation. Time for Pete Fountain.

Not sure I have a really good rendition of "Nearer My God to Thee." []

Dave

[BLSamuel]

Dance band on the titanic...

Pete Fountain sounds like a good listen. Recently picked up a 2 disc CD set by Pete Fountain titled Dixieland Classics. No "Nearer My God to Thee" but it does have a rendition of "Amazing Grace". I think I'll cue that up first at work tomorrow morning and say a few prayers for you and others in Ike's path.

[eq_shadimar]

I made this offer to Dave but it looks like he is staying put...for now [] anyway if any of our forum members plan to evacuate all the way to the Dallas area I will gladly host them at my house. Just let me know.

Laters,

Jeff

[Arky]

Good luck guys, they are getting serious about this one.

[Mallette]

Pressure 29.70 and headed south. Winds E at 18.

Dave

[CECAA850]

It doesn't seem to have strengthened much or changed off it's projected path overnight. Less than 24 hrs till landfall.

[Groomlakearea51]

Dace, Carl and the Texas Klipsch ""gang": Best of luck on this one. After the eye walls passed over my hovel from Frances, Jeanne, Wilma, Katrina (as it passed as a Cat-1), then the "rain-maker" Fay..., I can only offer sympathy and hope like hell that the dry air kills it down a bit. Also... pray for some speed so it moves through quickly.

The biggest problem with Ike is that it has turned into a powerful version of Frances which by the time it hit us was the size of Texas. We were battered for 36 sraight hours because of the sheer size, huge eye radius, and very slow (4mph) movement. After about 24 hours things started failing. I lost the rear part of my roof to an embedded tornado in the latter stages because the winds had simply weakened the leading edges of the sheathing, drip panels, thus $30 K worth of damage. My house, however, is older, bult in 1987, so it was probably time for a new roof, drywall, tile, etc., anyways (I looked at it on the bright side.....).

Dave: There are some damage control things that you can do since you are going to ride it out. If you are familiar with this stuff, disregard - just trying to wrack my brain to be helpful -.

• Make sure you have a camera with fresh batteries. Both for photos of any damage as it occurs and afterwards as it documents your expenses and mitigation efforts for insurance (not to mention good pictures for the Forum,.....)
• Have 55 gallon garbage bags handy. You can use them for a lot of mitigation things, and.... to cover expensive items (Klipsch.... ) in the event of a sheathing failure that opens the roof.
• Move all very expensive stuff (e.g. Klipsch...) away from the walls. The "best practice" is to actually move every possible thing away from any and all walls that are opposite exterior walls. That's where the problems will surface.
• Open all drapes and blinds, and using a rag to hold them open, duct tape around the rag. Reason: you can immediately see if there are any leaks.
• Strategically place a mop bucket and mop where you can get to it. Try to come up with about 10 wallmart "tubs". The 18 gallon kind. You will need them for wet towels, and also if you have water streaming in anywhere.
• Strategically place at least 4-5 towels, a wallmart tub, and a roll of duct tape next to the windows so if there is a failure on the roof, or the windows leak anywhere, you can use the towels to sop it up. We keep about 100 old cotton towels in several Walmart "tubs" just for hurricanes.
• If there is water coming in around the windows, duct tape 55 gallon drum liner to sides and on the window sill, and put loose end folded over into a tub, This will keep the water off the floor and walls and direct it to the tubs.
• If there is a catastrophic failure to any section of the roof, i.e. a piece of sheathing comes off, put wallmart tubs underneath where the water is pouring in. Then isolate that room by shutting the door, and duct tape towels to the bottom of the door on the inside. Then put towels around the bottom of the door on the outside of the door. If you can, you can also duct tape the 55 gallon drum liners (overlapped) along the wall and direct the water to a tub.
• When the roof leaks, it will generally leak at the edges and the visible effect is water coming in around windows. Dependent on the design, if your house has ridge vents, unless they are the newer CAT-3 type (higher "lip") there may be leaks and the water will run down the sheathing and you will see water along the edges of the walls/ceilings. Many newer homes no longer use ridge venting and rely only on soffit vents.
• On the front door, or whatever primary home exit door is on the windward side, go outside and duct tape the gap between the door and the frame. Even the best door seals begin to leak at about 75 mph. The duct tape will prevent that.
• Until the power dies, keep the A/C running to remove humidity. When the power dies, go to the main breaker box, and turn off all breakers except one "strategic" one. I recommend the living room. Keep one light on so if power comes back there are no massive surges to anything except your light bulb....
• If you have a garage, ideally park your car in the garage. Place a sheet of 4x8 plywood between the bumper and the garage door. Carefully put it in reverse and back up very slowly and push against the plywood. Put it in park and that will prevent the wind from taking out the garage door if it's on the windward side.
• Check every room with a flashlight every 5-10 minutes. You will be busy as a one legged man in a butt kickin contest for at least 12-16 hours..... Concentrate on the windward rooms.
• If the "surge" is not too bad and you are not underwater...., you can actually go outside during the "event" on the leeward side and work your way around and take a quick look at the roof and see if tiles are coming off. Trick is to have two doors between you and the point of exit. The garage doors work for me because the inner garage door to the house is well sealed and the air pressure differential is not much. Once I get out into the first garage, I can then use either the north bay door or the south exit door, dependent....

That's what I generally do here, both at home and at my office. I then crank up the 10,000 pound diesel pick up truck and go back and forth checking both places, doing damage control until it's over..... Worse one was Wilma. Whatta' ride!!

[Groomlakearea51]

Even though everyone probably knows it, here's the Military track on the storm.

[Groomlakearea51]

The perfect storm....

[Groomlakearea51]

Florida is NOT out of the woods yet.....

[Groomlakearea51]

NHC says low probability of development..... Until it's spinning itself on it's merry way towards England, I will not rest.....

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...INCLUDING SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

[Groomlakearea51]

In 96 hours, the NOGAPS streamlines theoretically would move it up in a northerly track:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the Ike NHC storm surge estimate for a surge in excess of 10 feet.

[Mallette]

GL51, that is about the best list I've ever seen. Thanks! 29.68. E28mph.

Dave