Groomlakearea51 Posted August 29, 2010 Author Share Posted August 29, 2010 The wind/wave forecast at the surface at 96 hours. Wave forecast is in meters above normal, and speeds and directions are the aviation type. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 29, 2010 Author Share Posted August 29, 2010 Sea Surface Temps for next 7 days: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 29, 2010 Author Share Posted August 29, 2010 The "anomalies", or where its warmer than it should be..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 29, 2010 Author Share Posted August 29, 2010 The jet stream and why it protects us..... for the moment..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 29, 2010 Author Share Posted August 29, 2010 The big picture...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 29, 2010 Author Share Posted August 29, 2010 The African "poop chute"........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 29, 2010 Author Share Posted August 29, 2010 Earl's water vapor image Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 29, 2010 Author Share Posted August 29, 2010 Visible image of Earl this morning.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 29, 2010 Author Share Posted August 29, 2010 Fiona begins to grow.... Visible image from this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted August 29, 2010 Share Posted August 29, 2010 Earl is on the storm of 1900 path. Whilst that shield is still in place, we are also at the point in which things start to change over the southern coast and Gulf. Bears watching. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 30, 2010 Author Share Posted August 30, 2010 They are quite concerned with "Earl", particularly in the 72+ hour mark. WTNT42 KNHC 300845 TCDAT2 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010 SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED JUST PRIOR TO 0600 UTC...AN EYE HAS BEEN OCCASIONALLY APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 25 NM ON THE ST. MAARTEN RADAR. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A FLIGHT LEVEL MAXIMUM WIND OF 97 KT AT 0510 UTC...AND 0600 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND IS GOOD ELSEWHERE...AND THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SHOWS EARL REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A BROAD PEAK IN INTENSITY BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...EARL SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE GFDL. BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/13. EARL WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...AS EARL TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. GIVEN THE LARGE SHIFT IN THE MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT...OR WEST...BUT STILL LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT...IF ANY...PARTS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL LATER THIS WEEK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 18.3N 62.4W 90 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 19.1N 64.0W 95 KT 24HR VT 31/0600Z 20.3N 66.0W 105 KT 36HR VT 31/1800Z 21.9N 67.8W 115 KT48HR VT 01/0600Z 24.0N 69.6W 115 KT 72HR VT 02/0600Z 29.5N 73.0W 115 KT96HR VT 03/0600Z 35.5N 72.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 04/0600Z 42.0N 65.5W 85 KT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 30, 2010 Author Share Posted August 30, 2010 Guidance models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 30, 2010 Author Share Posted August 30, 2010 Assuming that Earl remains on track, the wind radius says that tS force winds could extend out well over 130-160 miles on the west (that's us...) side as it passes. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.1N 64.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.3N 66.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 21.9N 67.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 85NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.0N 69.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 29.5N 73.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 30, 2010 Author Share Posted August 30, 2010 If.... during the next 48 hours things go south and it does not turn as much as the models suggest; and is closer to the west edge of the "cone of death", TS winds could very well materialize along the coastline of Florida. This is the MIL graphic which makes alot more sense than the NHC "cone of death".... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 30, 2010 Author Share Posted August 30, 2010 All it has to fo is "zig" instead of "zag" at the wrong moment and Florida becomes at risk for a sideswipe, not to mention the Carolina's and Virginia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 30, 2010 Author Share Posted August 30, 2010 Fiona is expected to form today or at tomorrow at the latest. The models all seem to suggest that it will turn north as well, but possibly sooner than Earl. It's unfortunately too far out there to really make any assumptions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 I've been a bit busy with a small project I started before school starts tomorrow. It started out as a small area of porcelain tile and has become the entranceway, closet and powder room. Of course, the toilet, vanity and vanity top also need replacing, and the walls and baseboards need to be replaced. The tile is mostly laid and will be finished tomorrow, but there is still several days work ahead, but it will look a lot nicer than carpet down the main hallway. Earl is getting closer to North Carolina, but still off the coast. It is now a low Cat 4 hurricane and will be a Cat 3 off the North Carolina cost. There will be a storm surge, but not to the same degree as if Earl had been a Cat 5 at some point. If on the coast, be prepared for rain and strong winds. Fiona is heading further out to sea and will remain a tropical storm. 500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010 EARLALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WASEARLIER...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AROUND 1700 UTC REPORTED A MINIMUMPRESSURE OF 940 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 128 KNOTS.THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS.CURRENTLY...THERE IS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DISRUPTING THEUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF EARL. THIS SHEARIS CAUSED BY A WEAK UPPER-LOW OR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS ASOBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES. HOWEVER...MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPERLOW AS EARL MOVES AROUND IT...RESULTING IN A MORE FAVORABLEENVIRONMENT. EARL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CATEGORY FOURINTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 OR13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT ISSTEERING EARL TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TOGRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A BROAD TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVERTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE EARL ON A MORENORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.THEREAFTER...EARL WILL REACH THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIESAND WILL LIKELY TURN SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE INFORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACKGUIDANCE. ONCE AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A FEWMILES TO THE WEST BEFORE 48 HOURS FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF THE ECMWFAND THE GFS.GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITHEARL...AND THE NEW DEFINITION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS...A HURRICANEAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THEPROGRESS OF EARL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 31/2100Z 22.0N 68.8W 115 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 23.3N 70.5W 115 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 25.6N 72.8W 115 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 28.0N 74.5W 115 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 75.5W 115 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 36.0N 73.5W 95 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 44.0N 65.0W 75 KT120HR VT 05/1800Z 56.0N 55.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP FIONA 500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OFFIONA...HOWEVER THE CONVECTION SHOWS LITTLE BANDING. THE AIRCRAFTFOUND PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 41 KT AND SEVERAL UNFLAGGEDSFMR WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ONTHESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. AN UPPER-LEVELANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FIONA IS FORECAST TO PRODUCEINCREASING UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. THESHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ANDONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/21 KT. FIONA IS FORECASTTO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE VERY SOON AS IT APPROACHESTHE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN 36-48 HOURS...THECYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND HURRICANE EARLTO THE NORTHWEST. ALL OF GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE STORM IN 2-3DAYS AS THE SMALLER CIRCULATION OF FIONA BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH INTHE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF EARL. THEOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER DISSIPATION COULDOCCUR EARLIER THAN SHOWN BELOW.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 31/2100Z 16.7N 57.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 17.9N 60.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 20.2N 63.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 23.0N 66.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 26.5N 67.7W 35 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 33.5N 67.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 1, 2010 Author Share Posted September 1, 2010 I do NOT like the track paths of TD9...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted September 2, 2010 Share Posted September 2, 2010 A little early on Gaston's track path, since half have it heading up the Atlantic Coast while the other half are heading into the Caribbean Sea. Keep an eye on this one. Unless that Star Wars defense mechanism keeps working, it may very well find main land U.S.A. As for Earl, it is going to be off the coast but will effect North Carolina, Cape Cod and the Bay of Fundy in Canada. Not a nice storm, but it isn't scheduled to hit land until it hits Nova Scotia. The good part of that is that the northeast front never hits land because that's the quadrant that does the most damage. I would be concerned about a storm surge in the areas along the North Carolina islands because it's a strong Cat 3 hurricane and it did reach weak Cat 4 status. It should have some surge associated with it, but not to the extent of a Cat 5. Katrina was a Cat 5 in the gulf and I certainly remember seeing the remnants of that storm surge. Anytime there has been a Cat 5 off the coast, then the surge usually is quiet significant and there are deaths associated with it. The waves get formed out at sea and when the sea floor get shallower, they go further inland at over ten feet above sea level. It's also possible that Hermine will be worth watching because each hurricane is gettting closer to the coast each time. It's a mild disturbance at the moment off the coast of Africa, but in two days it will have a number and maybe a name. The trough may not be having the same effect as it did earlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunburnwilly Posted September 2, 2010 Share Posted September 2, 2010 Surfed at my home break Folly Beach SC all day . Jeeeeeeez , Earl was pumping in swell and providing offshore winds . It got a little spooky ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.