Dflip Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The 5 p.m update for Don and it indicates that Don might be a touch less intense than the forecast at 11:00 a.m. today. It should be providing some rain to those of you east of where landfall is. Houston and Galveston are getting rain, but what's interesting is the intensity of the storm is to the the southwest, 210 degress, towards Brownville, Normally the worst side of a hurricane is the northeast quadrant? TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 9NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011400 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DON REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM THISAFTERNOON...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OFA DISORGANIZED MASS OF STRONG CONVECTION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVEHURRICANE HUNTER PLANE MEASURED 56 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MBAND ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 46 KT WITH THE SFMR...BOTH IN THENORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITYREMAINS 45 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DOPPLER WIND DISPLAYS FROMTHE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN A WELL-DEFINEDMESOCYCLONE IN A STRONG CONVECTIVE CELL WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OFTHE CENTER AND THE PRIMARY CONVECTION.THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/14. DEEP-LAYER RIDGING OVER THESOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLYWEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FORTHE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTIIN THE NEXT 12 HR...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTONORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THEPREVIOUS TRACK.EVEN THOUGH THE 12 HR FORECAST POINT SHOWS WEAKENING...THERE ISSTILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DON TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE IN THE FEWHOURS REMAINING BEFORE LANDFALL. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULDSTEADILY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND IT IS FORECASTTO DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO BY 48 HR.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 29/2100Z 26.9N 96.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 27.5N 98.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1800Z 28.2N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0600Z 28.8N 103.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED$$FORECASTER BEVEN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Rain in Beaumont but none in Corpus yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I don't want him to get kicked out Why? [6] Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CECAA850 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I don't want him to get kicked out Why? Dave Because he might end up back HOME!!!![:S] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The 8 p.m. warning on Don and its going to hit land sooner than expected. TROPICAL STORM DON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011 700 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011 ...CENTER OF DON ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST NEAR BAFFIN BAY...STRENGTHENING NO LONGER ANTICIPATED... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 97.1W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PORT OCONNOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TEXAS COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT OCONNOR FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST. DON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST NEAR BAFFIN BAY ON THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BUOY AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT DON HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL AND DON IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE AND TIDES WILL INCREASE WATER LEVELS AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE STORM TIDE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. RAINFALL...DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA The storm in the Atlantic is now a 50% chance. There are a few more systems forming up in Africa which is very typical for this time of year. All of them 5 - 7 days apart and subject to whatever winds or air masses are presently in North America. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USNRET Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Corpus got nadda. I hit about 15 seconds of rain a little SE of San Antonio and when we arrived on the island about 19:45 it was all clouds and the typical afternoon wind. High tides and heavy surf; folks are riding the waves but no boats out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel Posted July 29, 2011 Moderators Share Posted July 29, 2011 It does not look good, Texas is so dry the rain on radar looks like it's drying out as it hit's land. [:|] It looks like it's going so fast it can't build up even a good rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 This pretty much says it all. Too bad you gentlemen didn't get any rain. We finally got some this week after almost no rain for three and a half weeks. 400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUTAS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NOCONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE INSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LASTADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATERTODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSEA RAINFALL THREAT. The one out in the Atlantic looks like it could become Emily. 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURESYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AREGRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN LOWIN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ATROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THISSYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT15 TO 20 MPH. There are another two storms over Africa, one just about to leave the coast and another following behind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Projections for storm 91 (Emily). A good chance that it will resemble a lot of last year and go out to sea in the Atlantic after hitting a few of the islands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 What a wimp, this Don. NOAA seemed really tentative and confused. Rare they admit the situation is so complex they are clueless. We got some showers and locally heavy rains from it...probably a half inch. I don't thing anyone got more than a couple of inches for it and it was being considered a possible Allison comparable for Houston just three days ago. The strong easterlies that tore Don apart seem to continue to prevent our normal sea showers, though my house has been getting more rain that normal for July. If the GOM doesn't busy up pretty soon the forecasts for this year aren't going to do much to improve faith in long term forecasting. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 31, 2011 Author Share Posted July 31, 2011 Emily could pose some problems as the track paths could shift ever so slightly and it comes across south Florida as a slow moving CAT-1 dragging 16 inches of Atlantic water with it...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted July 31, 2011 Author Share Posted July 31, 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BE CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE... NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 The latest on Invest 91 (Emily). It's projections have it getting closer to Miami, but still off the coast in all but one of the projections. This will still lead to a good amount of rain, so it bares further monitoring. At present, the storm has a 90% of becoming a tropical storm. 800 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. THE VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF MARTINIQUE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS AHIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THEDISTURBANCE TO DETERMINE IF IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACECIRCULATION CENTER. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONETODAY...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONEDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ANDGUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$$FORECASTER STEWART Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Well..... It has shifted and has the same characteristics (track paths, speed, environment, etc.) as Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne; Frances caused $30k worth of damage to my house because the inner "bands" have little embedded tornados.... It also did not help that the eye walls passed directly over my house.... Frances was the "pee bringer". It was one of largest storms on record. At it's peak it was the size of Texas, and slowed down to 3-5 mph. It lasted for almost 30 hours. Although "only" a strong Cat-1 (winds were about 85-90 mph), the fact that those particularly high winds lasted for 16 hours, things start to come apart from the vibrations, etc. I have a complete new roof (early 2005), and new high speed Miami Dade Code (Cat-3+ impact resistant) aluminum track panel shutters, and the trees are in much better shape and bigger than in 2004-2005. So... Given Murphy's Law, off to buy water, generator fuel and generator final testing this week, install the panels (which only takes about an hour [Y]), and get ready for the show. If it is going to be a direct hit, then all furniture opposite a window is moved into the center of the room(s), two 5 gallon buckets, an about 10 towels per window are stached ready to go, along with the mops and mop buckets strategically placed anywhere a potential problem can occur. The biggest threat with a Cat-2 are the ridge vents. They are the new low profile design and supposedly can take 120 mph, and the roof was just inspected and "maintenanced by the roof builder. But if one of them lets go, then water comes flying through that ridge gap and can get into the ceiling and walls unless I can get up there in the attic with a nail gun and some plywood strips (which I happen to have ready...). Last thing I do before the power goes out (and you know when that's gonna' happen..... starts flickering and then blackness..). is run the air compressor to make sure I have enough air for the gun, and open the attic access door..... I hate it when this crap happens..... [H] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhoak Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Well CRUD!!! If it follows that red track it'll be in my back yard too. Coming in from that direction means I have to brace my garage door in addition to boarding up. Think POSITIVE Take the blue track... Take the blue track... Take the blue track... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 The link I posted above is the evolving one, it changes over time, instead of the static ones I posted before. This morning, Florida looked like it might have some rain off the coast, six hours later it looks like it might be time to make preparations and get the necessary wood, food, water, etc... to get you though what might happen. At the moment its moving at 15 - 20 mph which is good news compared to Frances. I'm sure that the track will change a few more times in the next week before it hits Florida or hopefully not. 200 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2011FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARDFOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICALWAVE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLYINVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERYINDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCETHIS MORNING. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORMFORCE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ATROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER TONIGHT ORTUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVESWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhoak Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Oh I know that. It's just that some of us here are a little more "gunshy" than others. Here's the 2004 track of Charley, Jeane, and Frances. My little town isn't marked on the map but it's midway between Lake Wales and Frostproof. Yep... We got our butts kicked 3 times in 6 weeks that year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Feel free to pray it onto the white track, but please keep it cat 1 or TS... Don't need another "Cat 2 My ***" bumper sticker as per Ike... Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhoak Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I know you Texas guys really REALLY need rain but do you have any idea what it would be by the time it crossed the gulf? The name Katrina comes to mind. FUGLY!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Thirsty man is willing to take a risk for a drink, donchaknow... Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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